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DM to @tequilla regarding Pac 2 settlement
Comments
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The little 2 think they've won ... they won a small battle but will lose the wardirtysouwfdawg said:Thanks teq. Could you boil this down to a
Couple sentences for me?
Those going to the Big10 and Big12 will be fine
Cal & Stanford can fuck off and be the academic elites that they aspire to be viewed as -
Big 12 isn't fine.Tequilla said:
The little 2 think they've won ... they won a small battle but will lose the wardirtysouwfdawg said:Thanks teq. Could you boil this down to a
Couple sentences for me?
Those going to the Big10 and Big12 will be fine
Cal & Stanford can fuck off and be the academic elites that they aspire to be viewed as
The ACC won't have any brands if FSU, Miami, potentially UNC leave.
Big 12 already doesn't have any brands. ~Half the schools are former G5's and basketball won't make up for that. -
Big12 will be fine because it will be the stand-alone 3rd conference with a decided gap eventually between itself and everything else below it ... there will be an obvious gap between them in the SEC/Big10 and that's fine. They'll largely be on fine and stable footing going forward because any consolidation below 3 will hit the ire of any kind of competitive imbalance that antitrust regulators jump onhaie said:
Big 12 isn't fine.Tequilla said:
The little 2 think they've won ... they won a small battle but will lose the wardirtysouwfdawg said:Thanks teq. Could you boil this down to a
Couple sentences for me?
Those going to the Big10 and Big12 will be fine
Cal & Stanford can fuck off and be the academic elites that they aspire to be viewed as
The ACC won't have any brands if FSU, Miami, potentially UNC leave.
Big 12 already doesn't have any brands. ~Half the schools are former G5's and basketball won't make up for that.
The Big12 will always be fine from a hoops standpoint and that will always be the leg that they are able to stand on as being superior or at least on par with everybody else
You're right that there are some schools and programs that I don't necessarily love in that conference but I do think they've largely made smart adds going forward. Outside of picking the leftovers of some of the ACC schools that don't get poached off, I'm not really sure I see a program that they've missed adding that they should have added in place of anybody that they have in fact added. -
They picked schools that were really good G5's right before their coaches left. Whittingham will retire/leave, Fisch is gone after another 9 win season. Gundy might even leave.Tequilla said:
Big12 will be fine because it will be the stand-alone 3rd conference with a decided gap eventually between itself and everything else below it ... there will be an obvious gap between them in the SEC/Big10 and that's fine. They'll largely be on fine and stable footing going forward because any consolidation below 3 will hit the ire of any kind of competitive imbalance that antitrust regulators jump onhaie said:
Big 12 isn't fine.Tequilla said:
The little 2 think they've won ... they won a small battle but will lose the wardirtysouwfdawg said:Thanks teq. Could you boil this down to a
Couple sentences for me?
Those going to the Big10 and Big12 will be fine
Cal & Stanford can fuck off and be the academic elites that they aspire to be viewed as
The ACC won't have any brands if FSU, Miami, potentially UNC leave.
Big 12 already doesn't have any brands. ~Half the schools are former G5's and basketball won't make up for that.
The Big12 will always be fine from a hoops standpoint and that will always be the leg that they are able to stand on as being superior or at least on par with everybody else
You're right that there are some schools and programs that I don't necessarily love in that conference but I do think they've largely made smart adds going forward. Outside of picking the leftovers of some of the ACC schools that don't get poached off, I'm not really sure I see a program that they've missed adding that they should have added in place of anybody that they have in fact added.
Unless you like the situation in terms of TCU taking advantage of it, that conference isn't even paper bag level fuckable when the B1G and SEC start rolling out their new matchups. -
Thank you.Tequilla said:Others have touched around some high points but I'll try to summarize and obviously until the agreement is completely public there's still some unknowns
Breaking down the revenue and liability streams:
There's a segment that is tied to the entire backload of conference assets that is estimated at around $200M in total. To my understanding the biggest contributors to this amount are the Rose Bowl Settlement and anticipated future NCAA Tournament units (the payout is fairly long-term and delayed; there's historical precedent out there that these units typically stay with the conference versus the teams that accrued them).
While on the surface this looks like a sizable chunk of money, the reality is that the NCAA units are what they are and barring the conference dissolving (which it really should have but whatever) ... the size of the legal fight to claw back anything in this area not only was going to be long and lengthy but also have a high chance of failure. The departing 10 members have been fairly public for the time being in being prepared to walk away from this so this isn't anything anybody should be really too worked up on.
The bigger area where on the surface it feels like it's worth questioning is the roughly $6M discount on current year revenue streams. The key here will be in understanding how that retention of money follows the KNOWN liabilities (think Holiday Bowl, Comcast, P12 Network wind down and severance pay, etc.). The good news with the balance of those liabilities is that the amount should be relatively fixed at this point. I'd expect that the 10 agreed to those discounts with the understanding that it was the responsibility of the 2 to pay those liabilities. I'd also expect that some of the clawed back revenue is an acknowledgement of enticing the 2 to settle.
Where there are likely unknowns going forward is how future unknown liabilities will be treated with the elephant in the room being the current case before the House. The potential magnitude in a settlement is vast and I can understand the 2 wanting some form of guarantee in the protections (although to be fair I don't think that there's any way the 10 could act like they walk away from it but whatever on that). What's probably a little messier is how any liabilities that arise from this point forward are handled ... I'd be very hesitant if I was the 10 to agree to anything that arose from the control/management of the 2 and the 2 alone. We'll see on that ...
In the end, my read on the matter is that the departing 10 schools basically decided that the cost and energy required to call BS on the 2 was far greater than any potential reward. I do think there was an opportunity to challenge whether the PAC was a going concern conference but it was far from a slam dunk and that's where measuring risk vs reward comes into play. Finding an agreeable number from which to walk away from any future relationships with these 2 schools frankly was in the best interest of everybody. -
I agree. The Big 12 did as best they could to offset the loss of Texas and Oklahoma.Tequilla said:
Big12 will be fine because it will be the stand-alone 3rd conference with a decided gap eventually between itself and everything else below it ... there will be an obvious gap between them in the SEC/Big10 and that's fine. They'll largely be on fine and stable footing going forward because any consolidation below 3 will hit the ire of any kind of competitive imbalance that antitrust regulators jump onhaie said:
Big 12 isn't fine.Tequilla said:
The little 2 think they've won ... they won a small battle but will lose the wardirtysouwfdawg said:Thanks teq. Could you boil this down to a
Couple sentences for me?
Those going to the Big10 and Big12 will be fine
Cal & Stanford can fuck off and be the academic elites that they aspire to be viewed as
The ACC won't have any brands if FSU, Miami, potentially UNC leave.
Big 12 already doesn't have any brands. ~Half the schools are former G5's and basketball won't make up for that.
The Big12 will always be fine from a hoops standpoint and that will always be the leg that they are able to stand on as being superior or at least on par with everybody else
You're right that there are some schools and programs that I don't necessarily love in that conference but I do think they've largely made smart adds going forward. Outside of picking the leftovers of some of the ACC schools that don't get poached off, I'm not really sure I see a program that they've missed adding that they should have added in place of anybody that they have in fact added.
Going from the fifth best conference to the third best is no small feat. Some could even say the conference could be better than it was previously.
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I think that’s where Haie misses the mark in his commentsEwaDawg said:
I agree. The Big 12 did as best they could to offset the loss of Texas and Oklahoma.Tequilla said:
Big12 will be fine because it will be the stand-alone 3rd conference with a decided gap eventually between itself and everything else below it ... there will be an obvious gap between them in the SEC/Big10 and that's fine. They'll largely be on fine and stable footing going forward because any consolidation below 3 will hit the ire of any kind of competitive imbalance that antitrust regulators jump onhaie said:
Big 12 isn't fine.Tequilla said:
The little 2 think they've won ... they won a small battle but will lose the wardirtysouwfdawg said:Thanks teq. Could you boil this down to a
Couple sentences for me?
Those going to the Big10 and Big12 will be fine
Cal & Stanford can fuck off and be the academic elites that they aspire to be viewed as
The ACC won't have any brands if FSU, Miami, potentially UNC leave.
Big 12 already doesn't have any brands. ~Half the schools are former G5's and basketball won't make up for that.
The Big12 will always be fine from a hoops standpoint and that will always be the leg that they are able to stand on as being superior or at least on par with everybody else
You're right that there are some schools and programs that I don't necessarily love in that conference but I do think they've largely made smart adds going forward. Outside of picking the leftovers of some of the ACC schools that don't get poached off, I'm not really sure I see a program that they've missed adding that they should have added in place of anybody that they have in fact added.
Going from the fifth best conference to the third best is no small feat. Some could even say the conference could be better than it was previously.
Nobody is claiming that they will be the equal of the SEC and Big10 … they will have their challenges when it comes to flat out matching the resources
But they’ve largely done what they could and they’ve built a collection that is close enough top to bottom peer wise that they’ll survive versus the gaps between top and bottom that blew up the PAC and will blow up the ACC
I expect the conference will continue to remain compelling -
I'm not missing the mark.Tequilla said:
I think that’s where Haie misses the mark in his commentsEwaDawg said:
I agree. The Big 12 did as best they could to offset the loss of Texas and Oklahoma.Tequilla said:
Big12 will be fine because it will be the stand-alone 3rd conference with a decided gap eventually between itself and everything else below it ... there will be an obvious gap between them in the SEC/Big10 and that's fine. They'll largely be on fine and stable footing going forward because any consolidation below 3 will hit the ire of any kind of competitive imbalance that antitrust regulators jump onhaie said:
Big 12 isn't fine.Tequilla said:
The little 2 think they've won ... they won a small battle but will lose the wardirtysouwfdawg said:Thanks teq. Could you boil this down to a
Couple sentences for me?
Those going to the Big10 and Big12 will be fine
Cal & Stanford can fuck off and be the academic elites that they aspire to be viewed as
The ACC won't have any brands if FSU, Miami, potentially UNC leave.
Big 12 already doesn't have any brands. ~Half the schools are former G5's and basketball won't make up for that.
The Big12 will always be fine from a hoops standpoint and that will always be the leg that they are able to stand on as being superior or at least on par with everybody else
You're right that there are some schools and programs that I don't necessarily love in that conference but I do think they've largely made smart adds going forward. Outside of picking the leftovers of some of the ACC schools that don't get poached off, I'm not really sure I see a program that they've missed adding that they should have added in place of anybody that they have in fact added.
Going from the fifth best conference to the third best is no small feat. Some could even say the conference could be better than it was previously.
Nobody is claiming that they will be the equal of the SEC and Big10 … they will have their challenges when it comes to flat out matching the resources
But they’ve largely done what they could and they’ve built a collection that is close enough top to bottom peer wise that they’ll survive versus the gaps between top and bottom that blew up the PAC and will blow up the ACC
I expect the conference will continue to remain compelling
It's a power 2, there is no third, so they're just another graveyard conference.
Utah who just scored 7 against Northwestern is supposed to be the banner school now. Fucking eh oh el. -
Imagine banking an opinion on anything in the bowl season today … as long as teams are gutted by the portal and opt outs the balance of these games are exhibitions no better than watching NFL preseason footballhaie said:
I'm not missing the mark.Tequilla said:
I think that’s where Haie misses the mark in his commentsEwaDawg said:
I agree. The Big 12 did as best they could to offset the loss of Texas and Oklahoma.Tequilla said:
Big12 will be fine because it will be the stand-alone 3rd conference with a decided gap eventually between itself and everything else below it ... there will be an obvious gap between them in the SEC/Big10 and that's fine. They'll largely be on fine and stable footing going forward because any consolidation below 3 will hit the ire of any kind of competitive imbalance that antitrust regulators jump onhaie said:
Big 12 isn't fine.Tequilla said:
The little 2 think they've won ... they won a small battle but will lose the wardirtysouwfdawg said:Thanks teq. Could you boil this down to a
Couple sentences for me?
Those going to the Big10 and Big12 will be fine
Cal & Stanford can fuck off and be the academic elites that they aspire to be viewed as
The ACC won't have any brands if FSU, Miami, potentially UNC leave.
Big 12 already doesn't have any brands. ~Half the schools are former G5's and basketball won't make up for that.
The Big12 will always be fine from a hoops standpoint and that will always be the leg that they are able to stand on as being superior or at least on par with everybody else
You're right that there are some schools and programs that I don't necessarily love in that conference but I do think they've largely made smart adds going forward. Outside of picking the leftovers of some of the ACC schools that don't get poached off, I'm not really sure I see a program that they've missed adding that they should have added in place of anybody that they have in fact added.
Going from the fifth best conference to the third best is no small feat. Some could even say the conference could be better than it was previously.
Nobody is claiming that they will be the equal of the SEC and Big10 … they will have their challenges when it comes to flat out matching the resources
But they’ve largely done what they could and they’ve built a collection that is close enough top to bottom peer wise that they’ll survive versus the gaps between top and bottom that blew up the PAC and will blow up the ACC
I expect the conference will continue to remain compelling
It's a power 2, there is no third, so they're just another graveyard conference.
Utah who just scored 7 against Northwestern is supposed to be the banner school now. Fucking eh oh el. -
The Big 12 will routinely get 2+ teams into the expanded CFP. None of the actual graveyard conferences will even get one on average.haie said:
I'm not missing the mark.Tequilla said:
I think that’s where Haie misses the mark in his commentsEwaDawg said:
I agree. The Big 12 did as best they could to offset the loss of Texas and Oklahoma.Tequilla said:
Big12 will be fine because it will be the stand-alone 3rd conference with a decided gap eventually between itself and everything else below it ... there will be an obvious gap between them in the SEC/Big10 and that's fine. They'll largely be on fine and stable footing going forward because any consolidation below 3 will hit the ire of any kind of competitive imbalance that antitrust regulators jump onhaie said:
Big 12 isn't fine.Tequilla said:
The little 2 think they've won ... they won a small battle but will lose the wardirtysouwfdawg said:Thanks teq. Could you boil this down to a
Couple sentences for me?
Those going to the Big10 and Big12 will be fine
Cal & Stanford can fuck off and be the academic elites that they aspire to be viewed as
The ACC won't have any brands if FSU, Miami, potentially UNC leave.
Big 12 already doesn't have any brands. ~Half the schools are former G5's and basketball won't make up for that.
The Big12 will always be fine from a hoops standpoint and that will always be the leg that they are able to stand on as being superior or at least on par with everybody else
You're right that there are some schools and programs that I don't necessarily love in that conference but I do think they've largely made smart adds going forward. Outside of picking the leftovers of some of the ACC schools that don't get poached off, I'm not really sure I see a program that they've missed adding that they should have added in place of anybody that they have in fact added.
Going from the fifth best conference to the third best is no small feat. Some could even say the conference could be better than it was previously.
Nobody is claiming that they will be the equal of the SEC and Big10 … they will have their challenges when it comes to flat out matching the resources
But they’ve largely done what they could and they’ve built a collection that is close enough top to bottom peer wise that they’ll survive versus the gaps between top and bottom that blew up the PAC and will blow up the ACC
I expect the conference will continue to remain compelling
It's a power 2, there is no third, so they're just another graveyard conference.
Utah who just scored 7 against Northwestern is supposed to be the banner school now. Fucking eh oh el.
Their per school revenue of $35m+ is obviously not SEC/B1G level, but it's multiples of the $5m that MWC schools are earning. Who knows how the next chapter of realignment shakes out, but the Big 12 schools aren't dying off. If a "super league" of the top ~25 programs happens (I doubt it) then it won't really matter anyways - it's not like Maryland's conference affiliation is going to save them.
