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Sugar Bowl Analysis and Predictions

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    EwaDawgEwaDawg Member Posts: 3,992
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes First Comment
    Close Win

    I think UW will win this 42-30 in a game that plays out fairly similarly to last years, in that UW controls most of the game and it never really feels like Texas has a chance to win. There were a couple of big breaks that went our way last year, but at the end of the day the Texas defense just could not get off the field.

    The breaks we had last year were that Bijan sat out and they used an RB who hadn't played much. The other break is that Worthy legitimately dropped a bomb that would've cut deeper into our lead earlier in the game.

    On the flip side, the game took place in hostile territory, in the state of Texas. They essentially had home field advantage. Our offensive line absolutely dominated them, to the point that Tualapapa went over 100 yards and Penix was basically untouched. A Texas player said after the game that we? were the best line they faced all year in a season that included Bama and natty loser TCU. Penix efficiently hit McMillan and Odunze to keep the chains going, and that Pete K big game defense we love to hate made it's annual appearance.

    It reminded me a lot of when we lost the Fiesta Bowl in 2017 to Penn State. Yes, it was a 7 point game at the end, but we were trailing by 14 for most of it and looked like the less physical team.

    However - this is 2023. Texas is better this year. They found ways to win close ones this year, similar to UW. Sark deserves credit for navigating the schedule with a backup QB who played okay. Worthy is good, and while we don't know how banged up he will really be, they have other athletes at the skill positions. Their o-line and d-line is better, they have good backers, but the corners and secondary are really bad.

    Just like UW, they had some cardiac games:



    I watched some of the Bama, Houston, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Okie State games. If we limit the big plays from Ewers we will win this game. Ewers is pretty good, if a bit inconsistent, and he does take shots downfield. I'd say he is better at this than Nix is, or at least they try doing it more often. They have a good run game and will get their yards, but we don't allow long runs on defense. If we have the lead, eventually Sark will try to cut into it with the big plays. If we can limit them and get off the field on 3rd down, Penix will be too efficient. Their secondary has their best player out for the 1st half due to a targeting. I think we will test them early and often. McMillan being healthy is a game changer. Odunze, McMillan, and Polk will be too much and Penix will throw for 300 yards.

    During the close games they had this year, the Kwat defense was...okay? Kansas State should have beat Texas at home, I watched most of that game. The K State QB absolutely sucks and it was really sad watching them trying to punch it in during OT. Like absolute shank attempts at screens that weren't even accurate passes. Overall, Texas has played really poor passing offenses. The Pac 12 has gunslingers, even Sanders at Colorado pushes the ball down the field.

    Texas had a really impressive win against Bama. Ewers was clutch. They looked good, I couldn't believe Sark won. That being said, at that point in the season Milroe was very one dimensional and he got benched the next game. That plays right into Texas' strength, which is their front seven.

    Their fans are talking a lot about the ASU game, as they should, but that game took place in a windstorm and downpour in the October cold of Seattle. I'll ignore the fact that the team is widely suspected of having the flu for a second, because the irony is that UW is better served to play in a domed environment than the elements. Texas will have more fans in New Orleans, but I'm hoping UW can at least get to 35% or so of the stadium to make some legit noise. I have 100% confidence that ASU game UW offense, with an injured guard and receivers, playing in the rain, will not make an appearance. If it does congrats on the W, Longhorns. DeBoer has won 20 games in a row, and that was the 1 absolute head scratcher of a performance. We looked like Iowa out there, at least the defense came to play.

    Here is a big difference between the two teams - we beat Oregon on a neutral field. When it mattered most, our team got it done - for literally every marble. Texas, on the other hand, had the Pete K special where his defense got their shit pushed in when they absolutely couldn't afford to. Gabriel marched down the field and won the game. That Oklahoma team is good but not word beaters - they lost to an average Kansas and horrific Oklahoma State team.

    Don't forget - Oklahoma State got absolutely clowned on by a South Alabama team. At home. The Big 12 really sucks, and I think this will be proven come bowl season. Arizona is going to beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl - Gabriel isn't playing, but even if he was I would bet on Arizona and Fifita. Yes, the Ducks had a close win @ Tortilla Tech, but the Big 12 has some really bad out of conference losses at a whole, and when you look at the QBs in the conference they are all really bad save for Gabriel and Ewers. Not B1G tier horrific QB play, but still bad.

    Anyways, this is entering TLDR territory. Washington will control the ball on Texas. We will out-athlete them on the perimeter, and the line will pass pro well. If they drop everyone, we will run on them. Just like we did last year. Just like we did to Oregon.

    UW will be ahead most of the game, Texas might cut it to 10 or so in the 3rd of 4th quarter, but ultimately it will be a fairly comfortable win that was never really in doubt, but also not a blowout.






    Great post. A lot to digest, but a few counterpoints:

    1. I don't necessarily agree that the Texas "corners and secondary are really bad." The corners are fine, actually pretty good. Barron the nickel is a very good player / difference maker. He should have been all conference. The best cover corner is Ryan Watts -- Texas kid who transferred back home from Ohio State -- who got hurt before the OU game. He's been in and (mostly) out of the lineup all season, and finally appeared to get healthy. Then he hurt his back on the very first play against Texas Tech and missed the rest of that one plus the OSU game. He should be healthy by New Years and they definitely need him. The other corner Brooks is pretty good. He should have had a pick six in the Alamobowl last year. Malik Muhammed is a true freshman who has come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one. When PK has let the corners press, they've been very good. They are physical and athletic. They will get burned deep from time to time like all corners, but the underneath stuff in zone is where they've gotten hurt. To me, this is one of the keys to the game. Will Texas press and will Penix and Odunze set them on fire?

    2. The safeties OTOH can definitely be exploited. Williams, who is suspended for the first half (the targeting rule is a joke - but that's another topic) is another true freshman (5 star bought recruited out of Louisiana) who has also really come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one and will be missed the first half of the game. There are three other safeties back there who have been burned at different points of the season. Kitan Crawford is a plus athlete who is very mistake prone. Difference maker on special teams though. Jerrin Thompson is experienced but slow. Michael Taffe is a former walk on, coach on the field lunch pail type who has a nose for the ball white. Jalen Catalon is the guy who entered the portal. He was a freshman AA at Arkansas who portaled in, but he can't stay healthy either here or when he was at Arkansas. More run stopper than coverage guy. He hasn't played meaningful snaps in weeks. His loss isn't that much of an actual loss.

    3. I don't want to get into schedule pissing matches because it's stupid and the Pac got a lot of mileage out of some OOC games that in hindsight, don't look that impressive. And I'm sure as shit not going to defend the Big 12. But you can't underestimate how badly every team in the Big 12 usually wants to beat Texas, and then multiply that by 10 since its the last season in the conference. Texas was a jihad game for every team on the schedule. They threw schemes at Texas that they had never showed on tape. They tried every trick play imaginable. Injured players miraculously got healthy. Texas got everybody's best shot. And they still made it through unscathed (sans OU) for whatever that is worth.

    4. Texas can win in different ways. They don't have to throw to beat you, but they can. They don't have to run to beat you, but they can. They can win on special teams. They can win on defense. Like Washington, they found ways to win even when playing poorly, which says a lot about both teams. Texas is a better team than you saw in San Antonio last year. I don't know if they are good enough to beat Washington. I do like that they played last year and lost, so Texas will have a very healthy respect in their preparation. Should be a great game.

    Your third point is actually then same situation we were in. Especially since we? are both leaving our? respective conferences.

    We also got the added benefit of playing USC and Oregon State teams that were still fighting for their lives to win the conference. Oregon got them the week after when USC was toast, and Oregon State didn't have a coach.

    You will have talent on offense that only Oregon and USC has in the Pac 12. That can cause UW some problems.

    On defense, youre like a more athletic Utah or Oregon State. Due to the secondary concerns, more like Oregon State. We had the good fortune of playing that team in a monsoon in Corvallis, so neither team could do much through the air.

    I think for Texas to win, you will have to start fast. Very few teams have done that to UW this year, probably only @ USC was the only game. And we can clown on them all we want now, but Williams is a Heisman winner and when he is trying cant be stopped.

    Every other game UW scores first and controls the pace of the game. If Texas gets a lead while running the ball we? are in trouble.
    No disrespect, but UW leaving the Pac isn't exactly the same as Texas leaving the Big 12. You can't begin to understand the hatred and jealousy. And UW didn't announce they were going Big 10 until August. The Big 12 left behinds had two years advance notice that it would be the last time ever playing UT. They had been prepping for jihad for 9 months. Even the conference commissioner (and his idiot second in command) came out talking shit about beating Texas.
    Jezuz, even mitchcumsteen caught the aids. Your last paragraph is the dumbest EVER written about college football. Pay some fucking attention

    UW leaving the P10 actually killed the conference. Texas leaving the B12 might actually make them better. Or at least more balanced top to bottom with more teams.
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    PostGameOrangeSlicesPostGameOrangeSlices Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 24,581
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    EwaDawg said:

    I think UW will win this 42-30 in a game that plays out fairly similarly to last years, in that UW controls most of the game and it never really feels like Texas has a chance to win. There were a couple of big breaks that went our way last year, but at the end of the day the Texas defense just could not get off the field.

    The breaks we had last year were that Bijan sat out and they used an RB who hadn't played much. The other break is that Worthy legitimately dropped a bomb that would've cut deeper into our lead earlier in the game.

    On the flip side, the game took place in hostile territory, in the state of Texas. They essentially had home field advantage. Our offensive line absolutely dominated them, to the point that Tualapapa went over 100 yards and Penix was basically untouched. A Texas player said after the game that we? were the best line they faced all year in a season that included Bama and natty loser TCU. Penix efficiently hit McMillan and Odunze to keep the chains going, and that Pete K big game defense we love to hate made it's annual appearance.

    It reminded me a lot of when we lost the Fiesta Bowl in 2017 to Penn State. Yes, it was a 7 point game at the end, but we were trailing by 14 for most of it and looked like the less physical team.

    However - this is 2023. Texas is better this year. They found ways to win close ones this year, similar to UW. Sark deserves credit for navigating the schedule with a backup QB who played okay. Worthy is good, and while we don't know how banged up he will really be, they have other athletes at the skill positions. Their o-line and d-line is better, they have good backers, but the corners and secondary are really bad.

    Just like UW, they had some cardiac games:



    I watched some of the Bama, Houston, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Okie State games. If we limit the big plays from Ewers we will win this game. Ewers is pretty good, if a bit inconsistent, and he does take shots downfield. I'd say he is better at this than Nix is, or at least they try doing it more often. They have a good run game and will get their yards, but we don't allow long runs on defense. If we have the lead, eventually Sark will try to cut into it with the big plays. If we can limit them and get off the field on 3rd down, Penix will be too efficient. Their secondary has their best player out for the 1st half due to a targeting. I think we will test them early and often. McMillan being healthy is a game changer. Odunze, McMillan, and Polk will be too much and Penix will throw for 300 yards.

    During the close games they had this year, the Kwat defense was...okay? Kansas State should have beat Texas at home, I watched most of that game. The K State QB absolutely sucks and it was really sad watching them trying to punch it in during OT. Like absolute shank attempts at screens that weren't even accurate passes. Overall, Texas has played really poor passing offenses. The Pac 12 has gunslingers, even Sanders at Colorado pushes the ball down the field.

    Texas had a really impressive win against Bama. Ewers was clutch. They looked good, I couldn't believe Sark won. That being said, at that point in the season Milroe was very one dimensional and he got benched the next game. That plays right into Texas' strength, which is their front seven.

    Their fans are talking a lot about the ASU game, as they should, but that game took place in a windstorm and downpour in the October cold of Seattle. I'll ignore the fact that the team is widely suspected of having the flu for a second, because the irony is that UW is better served to play in a domed environment than the elements. Texas will have more fans in New Orleans, but I'm hoping UW can at least get to 35% or so of the stadium to make some legit noise. I have 100% confidence that ASU game UW offense, with an injured guard and receivers, playing in the rain, will not make an appearance. If it does congrats on the W, Longhorns. DeBoer has won 20 games in a row, and that was the 1 absolute head scratcher of a performance. We looked like Iowa out there, at least the defense came to play.

    Here is a big difference between the two teams - we beat Oregon on a neutral field. When it mattered most, our team got it done - for literally every marble. Texas, on the other hand, had the Pete K special where his defense got their shit pushed in when they absolutely couldn't afford to. Gabriel marched down the field and won the game. That Oklahoma team is good but not word beaters - they lost to an average Kansas and horrific Oklahoma State team.

    Don't forget - Oklahoma State got absolutely clowned on by a South Alabama team. At home. The Big 12 really sucks, and I think this will be proven come bowl season. Arizona is going to beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl - Gabriel isn't playing, but even if he was I would bet on Arizona and Fifita. Yes, the Ducks had a close win @ Tortilla Tech, but the Big 12 has some really bad out of conference losses at a whole, and when you look at the QBs in the conference they are all really bad save for Gabriel and Ewers. Not B1G tier horrific QB play, but still bad.

    Anyways, this is entering TLDR territory. Washington will control the ball on Texas. We will out-athlete them on the perimeter, and the line will pass pro well. If they drop everyone, we will run on them. Just like we did last year. Just like we did to Oregon.

    UW will be ahead most of the game, Texas might cut it to 10 or so in the 3rd of 4th quarter, but ultimately it will be a fairly comfortable win that was never really in doubt, but also not a blowout.






    Great post. A lot to digest, but a few counterpoints:

    1. I don't necessarily agree that the Texas "corners and secondary are really bad." The corners are fine, actually pretty good. Barron the nickel is a very good player / difference maker. He should have been all conference. The best cover corner is Ryan Watts -- Texas kid who transferred back home from Ohio State -- who got hurt before the OU game. He's been in and (mostly) out of the lineup all season, and finally appeared to get healthy. Then he hurt his back on the very first play against Texas Tech and missed the rest of that one plus the OSU game. He should be healthy by New Years and they definitely need him. The other corner Brooks is pretty good. He should have had a pick six in the Alamobowl last year. Malik Muhammed is a true freshman who has come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one. When PK has let the corners press, they've been very good. They are physical and athletic. They will get burned deep from time to time like all corners, but the underneath stuff in zone is where they've gotten hurt. To me, this is one of the keys to the game. Will Texas press and will Penix and Odunze set them on fire?

    2. The safeties OTOH can definitely be exploited. Williams, who is suspended for the first half (the targeting rule is a joke - but that's another topic) is another true freshman (5 star bought recruited out of Louisiana) who has also really come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one and will be missed the first half of the game. There are three other safeties back there who have been burned at different points of the season. Kitan Crawford is a plus athlete who is very mistake prone. Difference maker on special teams though. Jerrin Thompson is experienced but slow. Michael Taffe is a former walk on, coach on the field lunch pail type who has a nose for the ball white. Jalen Catalon is the guy who entered the portal. He was a freshman AA at Arkansas who portaled in, but he can't stay healthy either here or when he was at Arkansas. More run stopper than coverage guy. He hasn't played meaningful snaps in weeks. His loss isn't that much of an actual loss.

    3. I don't want to get into schedule pissing matches because it's stupid and the Pac got a lot of mileage out of some OOC games that in hindsight, don't look that impressive. And I'm sure as shit not going to defend the Big 12. But you can't underestimate how badly every team in the Big 12 usually wants to beat Texas, and then multiply that by 10 since its the last season in the conference. Texas was a jihad game for every team on the schedule. They threw schemes at Texas that they had never showed on tape. They tried every trick play imaginable. Injured players miraculously got healthy. Texas got everybody's best shot. And they still made it through unscathed (sans OU) for whatever that is worth.

    4. Texas can win in different ways. They don't have to throw to beat you, but they can. They don't have to run to beat you, but they can. They can win on special teams. They can win on defense. Like Washington, they found ways to win even when playing poorly, which says a lot about both teams. Texas is a better team than you saw in San Antonio last year. I don't know if they are good enough to beat Washington. I do like that they played last year and lost, so Texas will have a very healthy respect in their preparation. Should be a great game.

    Your third point is actually then same situation we were in. Especially since we? are both leaving our? respective conferences.

    We also got the added benefit of playing USC and Oregon State teams that were still fighting for their lives to win the conference. Oregon got them the week after when USC was toast, and Oregon State didn't have a coach.

    You will have talent on offense that only Oregon and USC has in the Pac 12. That can cause UW some problems.

    On defense, youre like a more athletic Utah or Oregon State. Due to the secondary concerns, more like Oregon State. We had the good fortune of playing that team in a monsoon in Corvallis, so neither team could do much through the air.

    I think for Texas to win, you will have to start fast. Very few teams have done that to UW this year, probably only @ USC was the only game. And we can clown on them all we want now, but Williams is a Heisman winner and when he is trying cant be stopped.

    Every other game UW scores first and controls the pace of the game. If Texas gets a lead while running the ball we? are in trouble.
    No disrespect, but UW leaving the Pac isn't exactly the same as Texas leaving the Big 12. You can't begin to understand the hatred and jealousy. And UW didn't announce they were going Big 10 until August. The Big 12 left behinds had two years advance notice that it would be the last time ever playing UT. They had been prepping for jihad for 9 months. Even the conference commissioner (and his idiot second in command) came out talking shit about beating Texas.
    Jezuz, even mitchcumsteen caught the aids. Your last paragraph is the dumbest EVER written about college football. Pay some fucking attention

    UW leaving the P10 actually killed the conference. Texas leaving the B12 might actually make them better. Or at least more balanced top to bottom with more teams.
    Yeah

    Typical Texas everything revolves around us mentality
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    Mitch_CumsteenMitch_Cumsteen Member Posts: 77
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes First Comment
    EwaDawg said:

    I think UW will win this 42-30 in a game that plays out fairly similarly to last years, in that UW controls most of the game and it never really feels like Texas has a chance to win. There were a couple of big breaks that went our way last year, but at the end of the day the Texas defense just could not get off the field.

    The breaks we had last year were that Bijan sat out and they used an RB who hadn't played much. The other break is that Worthy legitimately dropped a bomb that would've cut deeper into our lead earlier in the game.

    On the flip side, the game took place in hostile territory, in the state of Texas. They essentially had home field advantage. Our offensive line absolutely dominated them, to the point that Tualapapa went over 100 yards and Penix was basically untouched. A Texas player said after the game that we? were the best line they faced all year in a season that included Bama and natty loser TCU. Penix efficiently hit McMillan and Odunze to keep the chains going, and that Pete K big game defense we love to hate made it's annual appearance.

    It reminded me a lot of when we lost the Fiesta Bowl in 2017 to Penn State. Yes, it was a 7 point game at the end, but we were trailing by 14 for most of it and looked like the less physical team.

    However - this is 2023. Texas is better this year. They found ways to win close ones this year, similar to UW. Sark deserves credit for navigating the schedule with a backup QB who played okay. Worthy is good, and while we don't know how banged up he will really be, they have other athletes at the skill positions. Their o-line and d-line is better, they have good backers, but the corners and secondary are really bad.

    Just like UW, they had some cardiac games:



    I watched some of the Bama, Houston, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Okie State games. If we limit the big plays from Ewers we will win this game. Ewers is pretty good, if a bit inconsistent, and he does take shots downfield. I'd say he is better at this than Nix is, or at least they try doing it more often. They have a good run game and will get their yards, but we don't allow long runs on defense. If we have the lead, eventually Sark will try to cut into it with the big plays. If we can limit them and get off the field on 3rd down, Penix will be too efficient. Their secondary has their best player out for the 1st half due to a targeting. I think we will test them early and often. McMillan being healthy is a game changer. Odunze, McMillan, and Polk will be too much and Penix will throw for 300 yards.

    During the close games they had this year, the Kwat defense was...okay? Kansas State should have beat Texas at home, I watched most of that game. The K State QB absolutely sucks and it was really sad watching them trying to punch it in during OT. Like absolute shank attempts at screens that weren't even accurate passes. Overall, Texas has played really poor passing offenses. The Pac 12 has gunslingers, even Sanders at Colorado pushes the ball down the field.

    Texas had a really impressive win against Bama. Ewers was clutch. They looked good, I couldn't believe Sark won. That being said, at that point in the season Milroe was very one dimensional and he got benched the next game. That plays right into Texas' strength, which is their front seven.

    Their fans are talking a lot about the ASU game, as they should, but that game took place in a windstorm and downpour in the October cold of Seattle. I'll ignore the fact that the team is widely suspected of having the flu for a second, because the irony is that UW is better served to play in a domed environment than the elements. Texas will have more fans in New Orleans, but I'm hoping UW can at least get to 35% or so of the stadium to make some legit noise. I have 100% confidence that ASU game UW offense, with an injured guard and receivers, playing in the rain, will not make an appearance. If it does congrats on the W, Longhorns. DeBoer has won 20 games in a row, and that was the 1 absolute head scratcher of a performance. We looked like Iowa out there, at least the defense came to play.

    Here is a big difference between the two teams - we beat Oregon on a neutral field. When it mattered most, our team got it done - for literally every marble. Texas, on the other hand, had the Pete K special where his defense got their shit pushed in when they absolutely couldn't afford to. Gabriel marched down the field and won the game. That Oklahoma team is good but not word beaters - they lost to an average Kansas and horrific Oklahoma State team.

    Don't forget - Oklahoma State got absolutely clowned on by a South Alabama team. At home. The Big 12 really sucks, and I think this will be proven come bowl season. Arizona is going to beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl - Gabriel isn't playing, but even if he was I would bet on Arizona and Fifita. Yes, the Ducks had a close win @ Tortilla Tech, but the Big 12 has some really bad out of conference losses at a whole, and when you look at the QBs in the conference they are all really bad save for Gabriel and Ewers. Not B1G tier horrific QB play, but still bad.

    Anyways, this is entering TLDR territory. Washington will control the ball on Texas. We will out-athlete them on the perimeter, and the line will pass pro well. If they drop everyone, we will run on them. Just like we did last year. Just like we did to Oregon.

    UW will be ahead most of the game, Texas might cut it to 10 or so in the 3rd of 4th quarter, but ultimately it will be a fairly comfortable win that was never really in doubt, but also not a blowout.






    Great post. A lot to digest, but a few counterpoints:

    1. I don't necessarily agree that the Texas "corners and secondary are really bad." The corners are fine, actually pretty good. Barron the nickel is a very good player / difference maker. He should have been all conference. The best cover corner is Ryan Watts -- Texas kid who transferred back home from Ohio State -- who got hurt before the OU game. He's been in and (mostly) out of the lineup all season, and finally appeared to get healthy. Then he hurt his back on the very first play against Texas Tech and missed the rest of that one plus the OSU game. He should be healthy by New Years and they definitely need him. The other corner Brooks is pretty good. He should have had a pick six in the Alamobowl last year. Malik Muhammed is a true freshman who has come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one. When PK has let the corners press, they've been very good. They are physical and athletic. They will get burned deep from time to time like all corners, but the underneath stuff in zone is where they've gotten hurt. To me, this is one of the keys to the game. Will Texas press and will Penix and Odunze set them on fire?

    2. The safeties OTOH can definitely be exploited. Williams, who is suspended for the first half (the targeting rule is a joke - but that's another topic) is another true freshman (5 star bought recruited out of Louisiana) who has also really come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one and will be missed the first half of the game. There are three other safeties back there who have been burned at different points of the season. Kitan Crawford is a plus athlete who is very mistake prone. Difference maker on special teams though. Jerrin Thompson is experienced but slow. Michael Taffe is a former walk on, coach on the field lunch pail type who has a nose for the ball white. Jalen Catalon is the guy who entered the portal. He was a freshman AA at Arkansas who portaled in, but he can't stay healthy either here or when he was at Arkansas. More run stopper than coverage guy. He hasn't played meaningful snaps in weeks. His loss isn't that much of an actual loss.

    3. I don't want to get into schedule pissing matches because it's stupid and the Pac got a lot of mileage out of some OOC games that in hindsight, don't look that impressive. And I'm sure as shit not going to defend the Big 12. But you can't underestimate how badly every team in the Big 12 usually wants to beat Texas, and then multiply that by 10 since its the last season in the conference. Texas was a jihad game for every team on the schedule. They threw schemes at Texas that they had never showed on tape. They tried every trick play imaginable. Injured players miraculously got healthy. Texas got everybody's best shot. And they still made it through unscathed (sans OU) for whatever that is worth.

    4. Texas can win in different ways. They don't have to throw to beat you, but they can. They don't have to run to beat you, but they can. They can win on special teams. They can win on defense. Like Washington, they found ways to win even when playing poorly, which says a lot about both teams. Texas is a better team than you saw in San Antonio last year. I don't know if they are good enough to beat Washington. I do like that they played last year and lost, so Texas will have a very healthy respect in their preparation. Should be a great game.

    Your third point is actually then same situation we were in. Especially since we? are both leaving our? respective conferences.

    We also got the added benefit of playing USC and Oregon State teams that were still fighting for their lives to win the conference. Oregon got them the week after when USC was toast, and Oregon State didn't have a coach.

    You will have talent on offense that only Oregon and USC has in the Pac 12. That can cause UW some problems.

    On defense, youre like a more athletic Utah or Oregon State. Due to the secondary concerns, more like Oregon State. We had the good fortune of playing that team in a monsoon in Corvallis, so neither team could do much through the air.

    I think for Texas to win, you will have to start fast. Very few teams have done that to UW this year, probably only @ USC was the only game. And we can clown on them all we want now, but Williams is a Heisman winner and when he is trying cant be stopped.

    Every other game UW scores first and controls the pace of the game. If Texas gets a lead while running the ball we? are in trouble.
    No disrespect, but UW leaving the Pac isn't exactly the same as Texas leaving the Big 12. You can't begin to understand the hatred and jealousy. And UW didn't announce they were going Big 10 until August. The Big 12 left behinds had two years advance notice that it would be the last time ever playing UT. They had been prepping for jihad for 9 months. Even the conference commissioner (and his idiot second in command) came out talking shit about beating Texas.
    Jezuz, even mitchcumsteen caught the aids. Your last paragraph is the dumbest EVER written about college football. Pay some fucking attention

    UW leaving the P10 actually killed the conference. Texas leaving the B12 might actually make them better. Or at least more balanced top to bottom with more teams.
    Come the fuck on, man. USC killed the Pac. It was as good as dead the exact moment it lost the LA market. UW and Oregon just kicked the plug, but make no mistake, the Pac was on life support from USC and UCLA bolting.

    And if you want to talk about the dumbest thing EVER written about college football, I might go with, "Texas leaving the B12 might actually make them better." Are you George Kliavkoff in real life?
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    EwaDawgEwaDawg Member Posts: 3,992
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    edited December 2023
    Close Win

    EwaDawg said:

    I think UW will win this 42-30 in a game that plays out fairly similarly to last years, in that UW controls most of the game and it never really feels like Texas has a chance to win. There were a couple of big breaks that went our way last year, but at the end of the day the Texas defense just could not get off the field.

    The breaks we had last year were that Bijan sat out and they used an RB who hadn't played much. The other break is that Worthy legitimately dropped a bomb that would've cut deeper into our lead earlier in the game.

    On the flip side, the game took place in hostile territory, in the state of Texas. They essentially had home field advantage. Our offensive line absolutely dominated them, to the point that Tualapapa went over 100 yards and Penix was basically untouched. A Texas player said after the game that we? were the best line they faced all year in a season that included Bama and natty loser TCU. Penix efficiently hit McMillan and Odunze to keep the chains going, and that Pete K big game defense we love to hate made it's annual appearance.

    It reminded me a lot of when we lost the Fiesta Bowl in 2017 to Penn State. Yes, it was a 7 point game at the end, but we were trailing by 14 for most of it and looked like the less physical team.

    However - this is 2023. Texas is better this year. They found ways to win close ones this year, similar to UW. Sark deserves credit for navigating the schedule with a backup QB who played okay. Worthy is good, and while we don't know how banged up he will really be, they have other athletes at the skill positions. Their o-line and d-line is better, they have good backers, but the corners and secondary are really bad.

    Just like UW, they had some cardiac games:



    I watched some of the Bama, Houston, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Okie State games. If we limit the big plays from Ewers we will win this game. Ewers is pretty good, if a bit inconsistent, and he does take shots downfield. I'd say he is better at this than Nix is, or at least they try doing it more often. They have a good run game and will get their yards, but we don't allow long runs on defense. If we have the lead, eventually Sark will try to cut into it with the big plays. If we can limit them and get off the field on 3rd down, Penix will be too efficient. Their secondary has their best player out for the 1st half due to a targeting. I think we will test them early and often. McMillan being healthy is a game changer. Odunze, McMillan, and Polk will be too much and Penix will throw for 300 yards.

    During the close games they had this year, the Kwat defense was...okay? Kansas State should have beat Texas at home, I watched most of that game. The K State QB absolutely sucks and it was really sad watching them trying to punch it in during OT. Like absolute shank attempts at screens that weren't even accurate passes. Overall, Texas has played really poor passing offenses. The Pac 12 has gunslingers, even Sanders at Colorado pushes the ball down the field.

    Texas had a really impressive win against Bama. Ewers was clutch. They looked good, I couldn't believe Sark won. That being said, at that point in the season Milroe was very one dimensional and he got benched the next game. That plays right into Texas' strength, which is their front seven.

    Their fans are talking a lot about the ASU game, as they should, but that game took place in a windstorm and downpour in the October cold of Seattle. I'll ignore the fact that the team is widely suspected of having the flu for a second, because the irony is that UW is better served to play in a domed environment than the elements. Texas will have more fans in New Orleans, but I'm hoping UW can at least get to 35% or so of the stadium to make some legit noise. I have 100% confidence that ASU game UW offense, with an injured guard and receivers, playing in the rain, will not make an appearance. If it does congrats on the W, Longhorns. DeBoer has won 20 games in a row, and that was the 1 absolute head scratcher of a performance. We looked like Iowa out there, at least the defense came to play.

    Here is a big difference between the two teams - we beat Oregon on a neutral field. When it mattered most, our team got it done - for literally every marble. Texas, on the other hand, had the Pete K special where his defense got their shit pushed in when they absolutely couldn't afford to. Gabriel marched down the field and won the game. That Oklahoma team is good but not word beaters - they lost to an average Kansas and horrific Oklahoma State team.

    Don't forget - Oklahoma State got absolutely clowned on by a South Alabama team. At home. The Big 12 really sucks, and I think this will be proven come bowl season. Arizona is going to beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl - Gabriel isn't playing, but even if he was I would bet on Arizona and Fifita. Yes, the Ducks had a close win @ Tortilla Tech, but the Big 12 has some really bad out of conference losses at a whole, and when you look at the QBs in the conference they are all really bad save for Gabriel and Ewers. Not B1G tier horrific QB play, but still bad.

    Anyways, this is entering TLDR territory. Washington will control the ball on Texas. We will out-athlete them on the perimeter, and the line will pass pro well. If they drop everyone, we will run on them. Just like we did last year. Just like we did to Oregon.

    UW will be ahead most of the game, Texas might cut it to 10 or so in the 3rd of 4th quarter, but ultimately it will be a fairly comfortable win that was never really in doubt, but also not a blowout.






    Great post. A lot to digest, but a few counterpoints:

    1. I don't necessarily agree that the Texas "corners and secondary are really bad." The corners are fine, actually pretty good. Barron the nickel is a very good player / difference maker. He should have been all conference. The best cover corner is Ryan Watts -- Texas kid who transferred back home from Ohio State -- who got hurt before the OU game. He's been in and (mostly) out of the lineup all season, and finally appeared to get healthy. Then he hurt his back on the very first play against Texas Tech and missed the rest of that one plus the OSU game. He should be healthy by New Years and they definitely need him. The other corner Brooks is pretty good. He should have had a pick six in the Alamobowl last year. Malik Muhammed is a true freshman who has come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one. When PK has let the corners press, they've been very good. They are physical and athletic. They will get burned deep from time to time like all corners, but the underneath stuff in zone is where they've gotten hurt. To me, this is one of the keys to the game. Will Texas press and will Penix and Odunze set them on fire?

    2. The safeties OTOH can definitely be exploited. Williams, who is suspended for the first half (the targeting rule is a joke - but that's another topic) is another true freshman (5 star bought recruited out of Louisiana) who has also really come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one and will be missed the first half of the game. There are three other safeties back there who have been burned at different points of the season. Kitan Crawford is a plus athlete who is very mistake prone. Difference maker on special teams though. Jerrin Thompson is experienced but slow. Michael Taffe is a former walk on, coach on the field lunch pail type who has a nose for the ball white. Jalen Catalon is the guy who entered the portal. He was a freshman AA at Arkansas who portaled in, but he can't stay healthy either here or when he was at Arkansas. More run stopper than coverage guy. He hasn't played meaningful snaps in weeks. His loss isn't that much of an actual loss.

    3. I don't want to get into schedule pissing matches because it's stupid and the Pac got a lot of mileage out of some OOC games that in hindsight, don't look that impressive. And I'm sure as shit not going to defend the Big 12. But you can't underestimate how badly every team in the Big 12 usually wants to beat Texas, and then multiply that by 10 since its the last season in the conference. Texas was a jihad game for every team on the schedule. They threw schemes at Texas that they had never showed on tape. They tried every trick play imaginable. Injured players miraculously got healthy. Texas got everybody's best shot. And they still made it through unscathed (sans OU) for whatever that is worth.

    4. Texas can win in different ways. They don't have to throw to beat you, but they can. They don't have to run to beat you, but they can. They can win on special teams. They can win on defense. Like Washington, they found ways to win even when playing poorly, which says a lot about both teams. Texas is a better team than you saw in San Antonio last year. I don't know if they are good enough to beat Washington. I do like that they played last year and lost, so Texas will have a very healthy respect in their preparation. Should be a great game.

    Your third point is actually then same situation we were in. Especially since we? are both leaving our? respective conferences.

    We also got the added benefit of playing USC and Oregon State teams that were still fighting for their lives to win the conference. Oregon got them the week after when USC was toast, and Oregon State didn't have a coach.

    You will have talent on offense that only Oregon and USC has in the Pac 12. That can cause UW some problems.

    On defense, youre like a more athletic Utah or Oregon State. Due to the secondary concerns, more like Oregon State. We had the good fortune of playing that team in a monsoon in Corvallis, so neither team could do much through the air.

    I think for Texas to win, you will have to start fast. Very few teams have done that to UW this year, probably only @ USC was the only game. And we can clown on them all we want now, but Williams is a Heisman winner and when he is trying cant be stopped.

    Every other game UW scores first and controls the pace of the game. If Texas gets a lead while running the ball we? are in trouble.
    No disrespect, but UW leaving the Pac isn't exactly the same as Texas leaving the Big 12. You can't begin to understand the hatred and jealousy. And UW didn't announce they were going Big 10 until August. The Big 12 left behinds had two years advance notice that it would be the last time ever playing UT. They had been prepping for jihad for 9 months. Even the conference commissioner (and his idiot second in command) came out talking shit about beating Texas.
    Jezuz, even mitchcumsteen caught the aids. Your last paragraph is the dumbest EVER written about college football. Pay some fucking attention

    UW leaving the P10 actually killed the conference. Texas leaving the B12 might actually make them better. Or at least more balanced top to bottom with more teams.
    Come the fuck on, man. USC killed the Pac. It was as good as dead the exact moment it lost the LA market. UW and Oregon just kicked the plug, but make no mistake, the Pac was on life support from USC and UCLA bolting.

    And if you want to talk about the dumbest thing EVER written about college football, I might go with, "Texas leaving the B12 might actually make them better." Are you George Kliavkoff in real life?
    Maybe Magic can give you some help on living with Chuck HIV. Yours looks terminal at this point. It's a fucking shame that you don't understand college football..

    I do feel sorry for simpletons so I will help you out a bit. I said Texass leaving MIGHT make the conference better. You can't get much worse than the conference was in 2023. Utah, Arizona and some other add ons might make them better..

    Go to ANY message board in the Pac 12 and ask them which one team killed the conference. Hell, you might even be told UW by the little brothers (0regon) who followed us out.



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    WilburHooksHandsWilburHooksHands Member Posts: 6,741
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    pgos said we will out athlete Texas on the perimeter which I think is true downfield but probably not behind the los. It will be interesting to watch this because you’d think they might try a lot of that to take the DTs out of the play. What I do like is that I think our offense is flexible and talented enough execute literally any game plan we want to try. Texas will score a lot in the first half (everybody does) and we’ll just need to keep being the superior 2nd half team.
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    SECDAWGSECDAWG Member Posts: 5,004
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    pgos said we will out athlete Texas on the perimeter which I think is true downfield but probably not behind the los. It will be interesting to watch this because you’d think they might try a lot of that to take the DTs out of the play. What I do like is that I think our offense is flexible and talented enough execute literally any game plan we want to try. Texas will score a lot in the first half (everybody does) and we’ll just need to keep being the superior 2nd half team.

    Meh, @PGOS said this, that one said that…

    It’s coming down to the LOS, TX secondary, WA ability to control clock with DJ, or not.

    TX is scoring points. WA as well.

    WA being able to control clock and keep TX off the field and TX able to get WA to punt and behind the chains…will be the WHOLE difference.
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    BleachedAnusDawgBleachedAnusDawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 10,526
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    I'm hearing that turnovers will decide the game. And the team who has the most points at the end will likely also be declared the winner.
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    PostGameOrangeSlicesPostGameOrangeSlices Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 24,581
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    Ill take the coach undefeated against ranked teams
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    SECDAWGSECDAWG Member Posts: 5,004
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    Bump

    Close win, pod. I’m still witcha…

    Going to take a lot of great plays and bombs from Penix. ..outscore them.
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    SECDAWGSECDAWG Member Posts: 5,004
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    No grudge match. No FG. Bombs and TDs.
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    EsophagealFecesEsophagealFeces Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 11,479
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    SECDAWG said:

    Bump

    Close win, pod. I’m still witcha…

    Going to take a lot of great plays and bombs from Penix. ..outscore them.
    Dude, you are clueless. We didn't beat them with bombs last year, and that's not how we'll beat them this year. That isn't how you beat Kwiatkowski's defense. You nickel and dime him all the way down the field. I'm sure UW will have a couple opportunities for a bomb, and hopefully we hit them, but if we play just trying to hit deep balls, we're going to lose.
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    SECDAWGSECDAWG Member Posts: 5,004
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    SECDAWG said:

    Bump

    Close win, pod. I’m still witcha…

    Going to take a lot of great plays and bombs from Penix. ..outscore them.
    Dude, you are clueless. We didn't beat them with bombs last year, and that's not how we'll beat them this year. That isn't how you beat Kwiatkowski's defense. You nickel and dime him all the way down the field. I'm sure UW will have a couple opportunities for a bomb, and hopefully we hit them, but if we play just trying to hit deep balls, we're going to lose.
    Meh. You can say whatever you want.

    WA will not bully TX.

    Fucking forget it.
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    SECDAWGSECDAWG Member Posts: 5,004
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    WA will win this game late on a Penix throw deep. If at all.
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    SECDAWGSECDAWG Member Posts: 5,004
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    SECDAWG said:

    SECDAWG said:

    Bump

    Close win, pod. I’m still witcha…

    Going to take a lot of great plays and bombs from Penix. ..outscore them.
    Dude, you are clueless. We didn't beat them with bombs last year, and that's not how we'll beat them this year. That isn't how you beat Kwiatkowski's defense. You nickel and dime him all the way down the field. I'm sure UW will have a couple opportunities for a bomb, and hopefully we hit them, but if we play just trying to hit deep balls, we're going to lose.
    Meh. You can say whatever you want.

    WA will not bully TX.

    Fucking forget it.
    I never said we'd bully them all day. We can kill them with crossing routes, run away from their big DTs, and hit back shoulder balls to Rome all fucking day, all while not letting them sub, tiring out their D line, which will open up more running late, and then we'll bully them in the 4th quarter and win, just like last year.
    Perhaps. Finesse.

    I’m with ya. I haven’t once said WA is losing this game. Don’t twist. I only hope. If they get in a phone booth, TX is winning. They have too much in the DL and LB core. I can only send you to the TTOWN and pushing Bama around…no one, and I mean no one, does that. They’re is 5* motherfuckers everywhere….they took advantage of a young OL for Bama and a young 5* QB..

    TX is very experienced and they are absolutely physical. WA won’t push them around like they have done the weak PAC 12.

    They’ll have to depend on Penix and a hair second for him to get rid of the ball for WA great receivers. That’s TX weak point.

    Past that, TX Will bludgeoned WA to death.
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    EsophagealFecesEsophagealFeces Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 11,479
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    SECDAWG said:

    SECDAWG said:

    SECDAWG said:

    Bump

    Close win, pod. I’m still witcha…

    Going to take a lot of great plays and bombs from Penix. ..outscore them.
    Dude, you are clueless. We didn't beat them with bombs last year, and that's not how we'll beat them this year. That isn't how you beat Kwiatkowski's defense. You nickel and dime him all the way down the field. I'm sure UW will have a couple opportunities for a bomb, and hopefully we hit them, but if we play just trying to hit deep balls, we're going to lose.
    Meh. You can say whatever you want.

    WA will not bully TX.

    Fucking forget it.
    I never said we'd bully them all day. We can kill them with crossing routes, run away from their big DTs, and hit back shoulder balls to Rome all fucking day, all while not letting them sub, tiring out their D line, which will open up more running late, and then we'll bully them in the 4th quarter and win, just like last year.
    Perhaps. Finesse.

    I’m with ya. I haven’t once said WA is losing this game. Don’t twist. I only hope. If they get in a phone booth, TX is winning. They have too much in the DL and LB core. I can only send you to the TTOWN and pushing Bama around…no one, and I mean no one, does that. They’re is 5* motherfuckers everywhere….they took advantage of a young OL for Bama and a young 5* QB..

    TX is very experienced and they are absolutely physical. WA won’t push them around like they have done the weak PAC 12.

    They’ll have to depend on Penix and a hair second for him to get rid of the ball for WA great receivers. That’s TX weak point.

    Past that, TX Will bludgeoned WA to death.
    Whatever, Pod. You're only sucking off Texas because downplaying them would make Bama look worse. Our OL is significantly better than it was last year, and our RB who's worse than DJ ran all over them. I don't doubt that their D is improved, but they haven't improved to the point of being Georgia from a couple years ago. I think it will be tough to run straight at them early, but we'll wear them down. Nobody thought we'd bully Oregon, but that's exactly what we did from the jump. Texas is more physical than Oregon, but they're still coached by Sark. We're his kryptonite.
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    SECDAWGSECDAWG Member Posts: 5,004
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    SECDAWG said:

    SECDAWG said:

    SECDAWG said:

    Bump

    Close win, pod. I’m still witcha…

    Going to take a lot of great plays and bombs from Penix. ..outscore them.
    Dude, you are clueless. We didn't beat them with bombs last year, and that's not how we'll beat them this year. That isn't how you beat Kwiatkowski's defense. You nickel and dime him all the way down the field. I'm sure UW will have a couple opportunities for a bomb, and hopefully we hit them, but if we play just trying to hit deep balls, we're going to lose.
    Meh. You can say whatever you want.

    WA will not bully TX.

    Fucking forget it.
    I never said we'd bully them all day. We can kill them with crossing routes, run away from their big DTs, and hit back shoulder balls to Rome all fucking day, all while not letting them sub, tiring out their D line, which will open up more running late, and then we'll bully them in the 4th quarter and win, just like last year.
    Perhaps. Finesse.

    I’m with ya. I haven’t once said WA is losing this game. Don’t twist. I only hope. If they get in a phone booth, TX is winning. They have too much in the DL and LB core. I can only send you to the TTOWN and pushing Bama around…no one, and I mean no one, does that. They’re is 5* motherfuckers everywhere….they took advantage of a young OL for Bama and a young 5* QB..

    TX is very experienced and they are absolutely physical. WA won’t push them around like they have done the weak PAC 12.

    They’ll have to depend on Penix and a hair second for him to get rid of the ball for WA great receivers. That’s TX weak point.

    Past that, TX Will bludgeoned WA to death.
    Whatever, Pod. You're only sucking off Texas because downplaying them would make Bama look worse. Our OL is significantly better than it was last year, and our RB who's worse than DJ ran all over them. I don't doubt that their D is improved, but they haven't improved to the point of being Georgia from a couple years ago. I think it will be tough to run straight at them early, but we'll wear them down. Nobody thought we'd bully Oregon, but that's exactly what we did from the jump. Texas is more physical than Oregon, but they're still coached by Sark. We're his kryptonite.
    Look, DWAG, Pod, we can “FO” each other all you want.

    Matter fact, I won’t. We just talking. Discussing our thoughts. I can tell you in NO WAY am I trolling here far as this game…

    I have seen WA play all year. I’ve been in many boards, from. SE MS guysm pulling for my pods. I Know what WA can do. I have absolutely from the beginning said they’re going to beat a weak ass USC, be PAC Champs, beat Ducks, all that… I’m fucking on record…everyfucking where…

    You’re preaching to a SEC staunch SEC guy that’s a believer..

    Take what I’ve said NOW to heart. Believe it.
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    SECDAWGSECDAWG Member Posts: 5,004
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    If get in a phone booth, TX is winning.

    Dot.ass.com.

    Let’s not do that, pods.
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    Mitch_CumsteenMitch_Cumsteen Member Posts: 77
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    EwaDawg said:

    EwaDawg said:

    I think UW will win this 42-30 in a game that plays out fairly similarly to last years, in that UW controls most of the game and it never really feels like Texas has a chance to win. There were a couple of big breaks that went our way last year, but at the end of the day the Texas defense just could not get off the field.

    The breaks we had last year were that Bijan sat out and they used an RB who hadn't played much. The other break is that Worthy legitimately dropped a bomb that would've cut deeper into our lead earlier in the game.

    On the flip side, the game took place in hostile territory, in the state of Texas. They essentially had home field advantage. Our offensive line absolutely dominated them, to the point that Tualapapa went over 100 yards and Penix was basically untouched. A Texas player said after the game that we? were the best line they faced all year in a season that included Bama and natty loser TCU. Penix efficiently hit McMillan and Odunze to keep the chains going, and that Pete K big game defense we love to hate made it's annual appearance.

    It reminded me a lot of when we lost the Fiesta Bowl in 2017 to Penn State. Yes, it was a 7 point game at the end, but we were trailing by 14 for most of it and looked like the less physical team.

    However - this is 2023. Texas is better this year. They found ways to win close ones this year, similar to UW. Sark deserves credit for navigating the schedule with a backup QB who played okay. Worthy is good, and while we don't know how banged up he will really be, they have other athletes at the skill positions. Their o-line and d-line is better, they have good backers, but the corners and secondary are really bad.

    Just like UW, they had some cardiac games:



    I watched some of the Bama, Houston, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Okie State games. If we limit the big plays from Ewers we will win this game. Ewers is pretty good, if a bit inconsistent, and he does take shots downfield. I'd say he is better at this than Nix is, or at least they try doing it more often. They have a good run game and will get their yards, but we don't allow long runs on defense. If we have the lead, eventually Sark will try to cut into it with the big plays. If we can limit them and get off the field on 3rd down, Penix will be too efficient. Their secondary has their best player out for the 1st half due to a targeting. I think we will test them early and often. McMillan being healthy is a game changer. Odunze, McMillan, and Polk will be too much and Penix will throw for 300 yards.

    During the close games they had this year, the Kwat defense was...okay? Kansas State should have beat Texas at home, I watched most of that game. The K State QB absolutely sucks and it was really sad watching them trying to punch it in during OT. Like absolute shank attempts at screens that weren't even accurate passes. Overall, Texas has played really poor passing offenses. The Pac 12 has gunslingers, even Sanders at Colorado pushes the ball down the field.

    Texas had a really impressive win against Bama. Ewers was clutch. They looked good, I couldn't believe Sark won. That being said, at that point in the season Milroe was very one dimensional and he got benched the next game. That plays right into Texas' strength, which is their front seven.

    Their fans are talking a lot about the ASU game, as they should, but that game took place in a windstorm and downpour in the October cold of Seattle. I'll ignore the fact that the team is widely suspected of having the flu for a second, because the irony is that UW is better served to play in a domed environment than the elements. Texas will have more fans in New Orleans, but I'm hoping UW can at least get to 35% or so of the stadium to make some legit noise. I have 100% confidence that ASU game UW offense, with an injured guard and receivers, playing in the rain, will not make an appearance. If it does congrats on the W, Longhorns. DeBoer has won 20 games in a row, and that was the 1 absolute head scratcher of a performance. We looked like Iowa out there, at least the defense came to play.

    Here is a big difference between the two teams - we beat Oregon on a neutral field. When it mattered most, our team got it done - for literally every marble. Texas, on the other hand, had the Pete K special where his defense got their shit pushed in when they absolutely couldn't afford to. Gabriel marched down the field and won the game. That Oklahoma team is good but not word beaters - they lost to an average Kansas and horrific Oklahoma State team.

    Don't forget - Oklahoma State got absolutely clowned on by a South Alabama team. At home. The Big 12 really sucks, and I think this will be proven come bowl season. Arizona is going to beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl - Gabriel isn't playing, but even if he was I would bet on Arizona and Fifita. Yes, the Ducks had a close win @ Tortilla Tech, but the Big 12 has some really bad out of conference losses at a whole, and when you look at the QBs in the conference they are all really bad save for Gabriel and Ewers. Not B1G tier horrific QB play, but still bad.

    Anyways, this is entering TLDR territory. Washington will control the ball on Texas. We will out-athlete them on the perimeter, and the line will pass pro well. If they drop everyone, we will run on them. Just like we did last year. Just like we did to Oregon.

    UW will be ahead most of the game, Texas might cut it to 10 or so in the 3rd of 4th quarter, but ultimately it will be a fairly comfortable win that was never really in doubt, but also not a blowout.






    Great post. A lot to digest, but a few counterpoints:

    1. I don't necessarily agree that the Texas "corners and secondary are really bad." The corners are fine, actually pretty good. Barron the nickel is a very good player / difference maker. He should have been all conference. The best cover corner is Ryan Watts -- Texas kid who transferred back home from Ohio State -- who got hurt before the OU game. He's been in and (mostly) out of the lineup all season, and finally appeared to get healthy. Then he hurt his back on the very first play against Texas Tech and missed the rest of that one plus the OSU game. He should be healthy by New Years and they definitely need him. The other corner Brooks is pretty good. He should have had a pick six in the Alamobowl last year. Malik Muhammed is a true freshman who has come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one. When PK has let the corners press, they've been very good. They are physical and athletic. They will get burned deep from time to time like all corners, but the underneath stuff in zone is where they've gotten hurt. To me, this is one of the keys to the game. Will Texas press and will Penix and Odunze set them on fire?

    2. The safeties OTOH can definitely be exploited. Williams, who is suspended for the first half (the targeting rule is a joke - but that's another topic) is another true freshman (5 star bought recruited out of Louisiana) who has also really come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one and will be missed the first half of the game. There are three other safeties back there who have been burned at different points of the season. Kitan Crawford is a plus athlete who is very mistake prone. Difference maker on special teams though. Jerrin Thompson is experienced but slow. Michael Taffe is a former walk on, coach on the field lunch pail type who has a nose for the ball white. Jalen Catalon is the guy who entered the portal. He was a freshman AA at Arkansas who portaled in, but he can't stay healthy either here or when he was at Arkansas. More run stopper than coverage guy. He hasn't played meaningful snaps in weeks. His loss isn't that much of an actual loss.

    3. I don't want to get into schedule pissing matches because it's stupid and the Pac got a lot of mileage out of some OOC games that in hindsight, don't look that impressive. And I'm sure as shit not going to defend the Big 12. But you can't underestimate how badly every team in the Big 12 usually wants to beat Texas, and then multiply that by 10 since its the last season in the conference. Texas was a jihad game for every team on the schedule. They threw schemes at Texas that they had never showed on tape. They tried every trick play imaginable. Injured players miraculously got healthy. Texas got everybody's best shot. And they still made it through unscathed (sans OU) for whatever that is worth.

    4. Texas can win in different ways. They don't have to throw to beat you, but they can. They don't have to run to beat you, but they can. They can win on special teams. They can win on defense. Like Washington, they found ways to win even when playing poorly, which says a lot about both teams. Texas is a better team than you saw in San Antonio last year. I don't know if they are good enough to beat Washington. I do like that they played last year and lost, so Texas will have a very healthy respect in their preparation. Should be a great game.

    Your third point is actually then same situation we were in. Especially since we? are both leaving our? respective conferences.

    We also got the added benefit of playing USC and Oregon State teams that were still fighting for their lives to win the conference. Oregon got them the week after when USC was toast, and Oregon State didn't have a coach.

    You will have talent on offense that only Oregon and USC has in the Pac 12. That can cause UW some problems.

    On defense, youre like a more athletic Utah or Oregon State. Due to the secondary concerns, more like Oregon State. We had the good fortune of playing that team in a monsoon in Corvallis, so neither team could do much through the air.

    I think for Texas to win, you will have to start fast. Very few teams have done that to UW this year, probably only @ USC was the only game. And we can clown on them all we want now, but Williams is a Heisman winner and when he is trying cant be stopped.

    Every other game UW scores first and controls the pace of the game. If Texas gets a lead while running the ball we? are in trouble.
    No disrespect, but UW leaving the Pac isn't exactly the same as Texas leaving the Big 12. You can't begin to understand the hatred and jealousy. And UW didn't announce they were going Big 10 until August. The Big 12 left behinds had two years advance notice that it would be the last time ever playing UT. They had been prepping for jihad for 9 months. Even the conference commissioner (and his idiot second in command) came out talking shit about beating Texas.
    Jezuz, even mitchcumsteen caught the aids. Your last paragraph is the dumbest EVER written about college football. Pay some fucking attention

    UW leaving the P10 actually killed the conference. Texas leaving the B12 might actually make them better. Or at least more balanced top to bottom with more teams.
    Come the fuck on, man. USC killed the Pac. It was as good as dead the exact moment it lost the LA market. UW and Oregon just kicked the plug, but make no mistake, the Pac was on life support from USC and UCLA bolting.

    And if you want to talk about the dumbest thing EVER written about college football, I might go with, "Texas leaving the B12 might actually make them better." Are you George Kliavkoff in real life?
    Maybe Magic can give you some help on living with Chuck HIV. Yours looks terminal at this point. It's a fucking shame that you don't understand college football..

    I do feel sorry for simpletons so I will help you out a bit. I said Texass leaving MIGHT make the conference better. You can't get much worse than the conference was in 2023. Utah, Arizona and some other add ons might make them better..

    Go to ANY message board in the Pac 12 and ask them which one team killed the conference. Hell, you might even be told UW by the little brothers (0regon) who followed us out.



    There is absolutely zero chance that the Big 12 is a "better" conference without Texas and Oklahoma. None. Zip. Zilch. They are going to take a bath in national prominence, quality of player, strength of schedule, recruiting, revenue, interest, eyeballs, ratings, and any other possible metric that could be possibly used to determine the quality of a conference. They are going to be a glorified transfer portal farm league for the SEC and Big 10. Hell, they already are.

    The only thing, and I mean the ONLY thing, that will bring them any relevance outside of gambling is the auto-bid to the playoff. And that's probably going to go away at some point too. They are going to be the next iteration of the Mountain West. Nobody cared about Utah or TCU when they were in the Mountain West then, and by gawd, nobody will give fuck one about them in the Big 12 either. Maybe CU gets some traction with Deion, but it's more likely that an SEC or Big 10 team hires him if he does anything noteworthy than CU maintaining any semblance of relevancy.

    And I don't understand college football? Wake the fuck up. The bluebloods drive this sport. They always have. They always will. With realignment, NIL and the portal, the disparities will only get greater. But the Big 12 "might" be better without Texas and OU. Yeah... good luck with that.
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