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4th down conversions

flatus
flatus Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 1,340 Swaye's Wigwam
Oregon failed to convert 6 out of 21 4th down attempts. Three of those 6, infamously, were against UW.

Also noteworthy, UW is in the top 5 in 4th down conversion rate.

If the Ducks get stopped on an 4th down early in the game this Friday, it will be a huge psychological blow. Lanning will go full Coke Boy.


Comments

  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823

    I think you're on the right track. I'm worried about Oregon because their team looks fantastic and they've bulldozed all of their league competition.

    If I'm a duck fan, I'm worried about UW because there is some logic-defying voodoo at play that can't be explained by anything observable. And you're playing the most talented QB in college football. And while he might be irreparably broken at this point, he also might be entirely capable of pulling his head out of his ass and catching fire again.

    I wonder how many fat uw lesbos are getting sacrificed for this season. It is insane how this defense looks like shit 81% time, but when they need to pull out a winning play they just do.
  • chuck
    chuck Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 11,673 Swaye's Wigwam
    SkipBoyd said:

    TheHB said:

    I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

    Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

    He will look much better Friday.

    Gnu bored motto?
    I'm not sure. Kinda seems like stating the obvious.
  • LawDawg1
    LawDawg1 Member Posts: 3,942
    Rooted in substance abuse?
  • WoolleyDoog
    WoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,058 Founders Club
    TheHB said:

    I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

    Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

    He will look much better Friday.

    Thought about this and mentioned it on the pod but unfortunately he was prolific last year in Pullman when it was colder than they ever played this year and in Eugene when it was I think in the 40s.
  • TheHB
    TheHB Member Posts: 6,457

    TheHB said:

    I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

    Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

    He will look much better Friday.

    Thought about this and mentioned it on the pod but unfortunately he was prolific last year in Pullman when it was colder than they ever played this year and in Eugene when it was I think in the 40s.
    But still.
  • CuntWaffle
    CuntWaffle Member Posts: 22,499
    The Ducks will win by 2+ touchdowns or UW will win another heartbreaker where the Oregon fans will feel it brewing late in the 4th.
  • Fire_Marshall_Bill
    Fire_Marshall_Bill Member Posts: 25,595 Standard Supporter
    TheHB said:

    I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

    Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

    He will look much better Friday.

    He's from Tampa, so it's not crazy.

    I'd look up how he did at Indiana after early October, but I'm too lazy. Plus, Indiana sucks almost every year regardless of if it's 90 or 20.
  • WoolleyDoog
    WoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,058 Founders Club

    The Ducks will win by 2+ touchdowns or UW will win another heartbreaker where the Oregon fans will feel it brewing late in the 4th.

    I could see this thing doing the Petersen era thing where they get down early then rally late but they actually pull it off.
  • EsophagealFeces
    EsophagealFeces Member Posts: 13,108

    The Ducks will win by 2+ touchdowns or UW will win another heartbreaker where the Oregon fans will feel it brewing late in the 4th.

    I agree these are the possible outcomes. I don’t think we lose a close one because Lanning will fuck it up and we’ll make the plays we need to. I think the longer the game stays close, the tighter the ducks will get, and the more adderalls Lanbo will pop. If the Ducks get up by 2 TDs, it’s probably over, but we have a chance if we can keep it close heading to the 4th.
  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    If the score is within 7 points going into the 4th quarter, if I am duck fan I am worried.
  • PostGameOrangeSlices
    PostGameOrangeSlices Member Posts: 27,164
    edited November 2023
    ntxduck said:

    I think you're on the right track. I'm worried about Oregon because their team looks fantastic and they've bulldozed all of their league competition.

    If I'm a duck fan, I'm worried about UW because there is some logic-defying voodoo at play that can't be explained by anything observable. And you're playing the most talented QB in college football. And while he might be irreparably broken at this point, he also might be entirely capable of pulling his head out of his ass and catching fire again.

    This captures my thoughts well. I think Oregon is better, but UW owns them (us?) mentally right now. We make mistakes v UW (missed reads on 4th, fumbling on the 1 yard line last year) that we don’t make against anyone else. UW’s D clutch gene has something to do with it, but at this point it’s also mental
    It's this in tandem with the fact that our WRs torch your secondary

    Oregon is scary as hell. They have looked like a buzzsaw against common opponents UW barely beat.

    And yet, UW had a stretch of games that were WAY harder than anything Oregon has had to deal with.

    UW won at Arizona, Beaver, and Trojan.

    Oregon's best win is over Beaver at home.

    I have no fucking idea what to expect on Friday. It's probably another 3 points game.
  • ntxduck
    ntxduck Member Posts: 6,117

    ntxduck said:

    I think you're on the right track. I'm worried about Oregon because their team looks fantastic and they've bulldozed all of their league competition.

    If I'm a duck fan, I'm worried about UW because there is some logic-defying voodoo at play that can't be explained by anything observable. And you're playing the most talented QB in college football. And while he might be irreparably broken at this point, he also might be entirely capable of pulling his head out of his ass and catching fire again.

    This captures my thoughts well. I think Oregon is better, but UW owns them (us?) mentally right now. We make mistakes v UW (missed reads on 4th, fumbling on the 1 yard line last year) that we don’t make against anyone else. UW’s D clutch gene has something to do with it, but at this point it’s also mental
    It's this in tandem with the fact that our WRs torch your secondary

    Oregon is scary as hell. They have looked like a buzzsaw against common opponents UW barely beat.

    And yet, UW had a stretch of games that were WAY harder than anything Oregon has had to deal with.

    UW won at Arizona, Beaver, and Trojan.

    Oregon's best win is over Beaver at home.

    I have no fucking idea what to expect on Friday. It's probably another 3 points game.
    Oregon’s safeties are great in run support but absolutely a liability on deep shots down the seam. It’s why Oregon’s D looks elite vs Utah and beav but pedestrian v UW and coug
  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,047 Founders Club
    TheHB said:

    I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

    Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

    He will look much better Friday.

    Hadn't thought about it until you brought it up but this did actually happen to me in Rugby at UW. We were learning new plays and sat out in the typical fall weather. While we had done warm-ups and I was fine then, the sitting for 15 minutes between plays let my muscles tighten in the crisp fall evening air.

    Like 3rd play from scrimmage pulled my hamstring sprinting and that shit was niggling in cold weather the rest of the year. Never had a problem before that or really after since. Never bothered me in warm weather.

    It was the kind of pain I could play through but would give me that extra bit of hesitation on a cut. Got me fucking demolished at Oregon State when I went right into contact instead of juking. I could see a ribs or throwing arm injury that acts up more in the cold and fucks up his throwing motion by just enough. Total wild speculation but that's all we have at this point.
  • UWhuskytskeet
    UWhuskytskeet Member Posts: 7,113
    TheHB said:

    I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

    Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

    He will look much better Friday.

    He wasn’t great in the Alamo Dome last year, but still.
  • TheHB
    TheHB Member Posts: 6,457

    TheHB said:

    I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

    Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

    He will look much better Friday.

    He wasn’t great in the Alamo Dome last year, but still.
    UW didn’t need him to be great though, just good. And he was. UW ran the ball on Kwat & co.

    If they do that against Oregon, I like their chances.
  • whatshouldicareabout
    whatshouldicareabout Member Posts: 12,990

    TheHB said:

    I’ve sold myself on Penix being much better in warm weather. May not have been the case so much last year, but his best games this year have come with room temps.

    Probably a dumbass theory, but I’m sticking to it.

    He will look much better Friday.

    He wasn’t great in the Alamo Dome last year, but still.
    Kwait's D is good against passing teams. Look at all the Leach Apple Cups

    Kwait struggles against teams that run the ball or use their TEs, like Shaw.

    Since Grubb doesn't know we have TEs, we just ran it and Taulapapa had the 2nd best game of his career
  • CFetters_Nacho_Lover
    CFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 32,245 Founders Club
    ntxduck said:

    I think you're on the right track. I'm worried about Oregon because their team looks fantastic and they've bulldozed all of their league competition.

    If I'm a duck fan, I'm worried about UW because there is some logic-defying voodoo at play that can't be explained by anything observable. And you're playing the most talented QB in college football. And while he might be irreparably broken at this point, he also might be entirely capable of pulling his head out of his ass and catching fire again.

    This captures my thoughts well. I think Oregon is better, but UW owns them (us?) mentally right now. We make mistakes v UW (missed reads on 4th, fumbling on the 1 yard line last year) that we don’t make against anyone else. UW’s D clutch gene has something to do with it, but at this point it’s also mental

    I feel like all the pressure is on Oregon and especially on Nix and Lanning.

    UW needs to either jump on top and stay there or keep it close to keep that mental pressure on Oregon.
  • whlinder
    whlinder Member Posts: 5,266
    The fascinating aspect to this matchup is both coaches have been there before.

    DeBoner with his 15-0 seasons in Sioux Falls or wherever.
    Lanning as the DC at Georgia for their 14-1 2021 Natty (which lost the SECCG).

    DeBoer was the actual leader of the team, but the level of comp wasn't the same.
    Lanning was the co-leader of the defense.

    No idea who's experience translates better.