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PAC Deal Framework
Comments
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No … I wasted my time watching the US Soccer teamntxduck said:You wasted an hour of your life at 2am breaking down financial scenarios on information provided by one of the most notorious liars on cfb twitter.
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Yep … biggest elephant in the room1to392831weretaken said:I just read that Apple TV has 25 million subscribers. You think between 80 and 120% of them are going to pay to watch the PAC Fucking 12?
There are ways to increase those numbers … for example T-Mobile customers were given the option to get the MLS package for free (similar to what they do for MLB)
But it’s a HUGE bet that is a giant leap of faith -
Agree that the subscriber numbers are a wild variable that is a massive leap of faithBleachedAnusDawg said:
There are way too many variables that would need to align for this to be close to a mediocre deal for UW. If UW signs off on this we? are screwed if the auto-berth goes away.
The assumptions about tiers for payouts, is that actually being reported as in the deal? Or is this just an assumption being made based on what other conferences have done? I would be mildly surprised if the west coast institutions have it in them to create haves and have nots given the culture of the campuses.
If UW can pull $40 mil per year I would take it with an escape clause after 2-3 years to align with a move to the Big 10. That $40 mil number seems to be based on wildly optimistic subscriber counts, though. No way in hell 20 million people are signing up for streaming.
The split of the Newbie revenue was embedded and is largely consistent with what others have gone through … the graduated schedule is not great for UW
I’d be SHOCKED if the numbers aren’t shown in a manner that highlights the ability for UW and Oregon to make more than the B12 number …
Now that number may include pie in the sky assumptions that we saw before with the PAC Network …
Big takeaway is that the path to make a bad decision is coming clear -
All part of the plan to nab that Chinese viewership
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Tequilla said:
Let's summarize the key financial terms:
- $20M base annual rights from Apple for the duration of the contract ($240M total at 12 programs)
- Subscription fee of $1/qtr depending on certain key subscriber thresholds met
- Newbies will receive a half of their share of related revenue over the duration of the contract
- A pool of money ($70M) will be leveraged by the conference as a whole to cover the Comcast related debt and the estimated related buyouts of the newbies
- Assuming an average subscriber base at between 20M-30M average annual subscribers and that that threshold is maintained throughout the duration of the agreement (will quantify what the impact of going up/down a level is)
- Assuming that the newbies will give up half of their share of both the $20M base annual rights AND the subscriber contribution bonus from Apple
- Scenarios run with adding 3 teams (assumes Arizona stays) and 4 teams (assumes Arizona goes to the Big12 as expected)
The basic financial formula is as follows:
Base Rights Fee + Subscriber Bonus +/- "Newcomer Tax" = Recurring Annual Revenue over life of contract
- $20M base annual rights from Apple for the duration of the contract ($240M total at 12 programs)
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I could be wrong, but don’t think that MHver guy has been wrong about anything. Dialed in.RaceBannon said: -
Can’t wait for the Phil Knight Network to pay Oregon more than Apple TV was offering.
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He's a dipshit WV fan that has already been called out.Tequilla said:
1) Schools have to have options open to them to leave … lots of reports out there that the B12 isn’t wanting to go to 16 with the 3 corner schools
2) Utah getting more to the point if equal or more than the B12 numbers can effectively leave ASU in a bind
3) Terms puts a number out there that UW/Oregon need to get from the Big10
Hate the source but it’s been more accurate then you care to admit … was calling out Colorado a long time ago
Who from the PAC 12 or apple or whoever is feeding this guy info?
Fucking no one. -
Guarantee fuck nuts like this don't watch football. Lot of support on Twitter for Apple. Like there was for the innovative Pac 12 network. Uw stays they die. If they die they die
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and they are all watching women's soccerRaceBannon said:Guarantee fuck nuts like this don't watch football. Lot of support on Twitter for Apple. Like there was for the innovative Pac 12 network. Uw stays they die. If they die they die
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FOX got 6.43 million viewers for a 1-1 draw this weekLebamDawg said:
and they are all watching women's soccer
That's more than any Pac-12 championship game ever -
This Fiutak is a dipshit. Football is the fire that heats the millions of mancaves across this great land and that is done on widescreen tvs with boomers and gen xers holding clickers.RaceBannon said:Guarantee fuck nuts like this don't watch football. Lot of support on Twitter for Apple. Like there was for the innovative Pac 12 network. Uw stays they die. If they die they die
UW vs Stanford is not going to be on any recruit or their family’s fucking phone.
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You take a B1G offer right now even if it’s below the best- case pac offer.
You need to align yourself with the most passionate and visible football communities immediately not some Larry Scott vision of a streaming future that taps the Chinese market, etc.
Cfb is all about prestige and visibility and the B1G financial upside is so much bigger than anything the pac can offer, even if you lose out on millions over the next 5 years.
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I am not confident there is an offer from the BiG right now. I am not sure their teams in the conference want to expand right now. It would take a commissioner really pitching the idea that they HAVE to do it. A bunch of have-nots in the conference will have to sign off on it and I am just not sure they are motivated to do it unless somehow fox gives out more money for a couple of west coast teams to come on.Kingdome_Urinals said:You take a B1G offer right now even if it’s below the best- case pac offer.
You need to align yourself with the most passionate and visible football communities immediately not some Larry Scott vision of a streaming future that taps the Chinese market, etc.
Cfb is all about prestige and visibility and the B1G financial upside is so much bigger than anything the pac can offer, even if you lose out on millions over the next 5 years.
TL DR. Maryland and Rutgers twist the knife. -
That’s ALWAYS been my biggest concern with the B10AtomicDawg said:
I am not confident there is an offer from the BiG right now. I am not sure their teams in the conference want to expand right now. It would take a commissioner really pitching the idea that they HAVE to do it. A bunch of have-nots in the conference will have to sign off on it and I am just not sure they are motivated to do it unless somehow fox gives out more money for a couple of west coast teams to come on.
TL DR. Maryland and Rutgers twist the knife. -
If they don't get the offer The big 12 is a death sentence anyways. It's big 10 or bust. NEM.Tequilla said:
That’s ALWAYS been my biggest concern with the B10 -
How many of those 25 million subscribers are on a promo deal because they bought a new Apple product recently?Tequilla said:
Yep … biggest elephant in the room
There are ways to increase those numbers … for example T-Mobile customers were given the option to get the MLS package for free (similar to what they do for MLB)
But it’s a HUGE bet that is a giant leap of faith
I had AppleTV for 3 months after getting g a new iPad. Watched the first 2 seasons of Ted Lasso.
Mrs Nacho got a new iPhone and 3 free months. We finished season 3 of Ted Lasso in early June. Haven’t looked at AppleTV since then and she canceled her sub yesterday. -
Really depends on whether Apple can secure programming that people want to watchCFetters_Nacho_Lover said:
How many of those 25 million subscribers are on a promo deal because they bought a new Apple product recently?
I had AppleTV for 3 months after getting g a new iPad. Watched the first 2 seasons of Ted Lasso.
Mrs Nacho got a new iPhone and 3 free months. We finished season 3 of Ted Lasso in early June. Haven’t looked at AppleTV since then and she canceled her sub yesterday.
It's $6.99/mo which is way less than YouTubeTV for the 4 months we get college football -
You're not wrong. I have zero faith in the uw admin to foresee this though.CFetters_Nacho_Lover said:
How many of those 25 million subscribers are on a promo deal because they bought a new Apple product recently?
I had AppleTV for 3 months after getting g a new iPad. Watched the first 2 seasons of Ted Lasso.
Mrs Nacho got a new iPhone and 3 free months. We finished season 3 of Ted Lasso in early June. Haven’t looked at AppleTV since then and she canceled her sub yesterday. -
Apple's originals are actually now better than Amazon's originals.CFetters_Nacho_Lover said:
How many of those 25 million subscribers are on a promo deal because they bought a new Apple product recently?
I had AppleTV for 3 months after getting g a new iPad. Watched the first 2 seasons of Ted Lasso.
Mrs Nacho got a new iPhone and 3 free months. We finished season 3 of Ted Lasso in early June. Haven’t looked at AppleTV since then and she canceled her sub yesterday.
And they both are better than Netflix' swill lately.
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The big ten is actually dumb af for sitting on 16. Adding Oregon/UW/unc/Duke/fsu/Miami would put it on par with the sec + make it the premiere basketball conference. Only a few schools really generate money from Bball, and the big ten would then have most of them (Duke, unc, md, msu, UM, Wisconsin, Illinois, purdue, ucla)
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ACC schools are talking about going to court to get out of their grant of rights deal. Seems like they're stuck for several years.ntxduck said:The big ten is actually dumb af for sitting on 16. Adding Oregon/UW/unc/Duke/fsu/Miami would put it on par with the sec + make it the premiere basketball conference. Only a few schools really generate money from Bball, and the big ten would then have most of them (Duke, unc, md, msu, UM, Wisconsin, Illinois, purdue, ucla)
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They can't sit at 16. It's an arms race with the SEC and they only have 2 west coast schools.ntxduck said:The big ten is actually dumb af for sitting on 16. Adding Oregon/UW/unc/Duke/fsu/Miami would put it on par with the sec + make it the premiere basketball conference. Only a few schools really generate money from Bball, and the big ten would then have most of them (Duke, unc, md, msu, UM, Wisconsin, Illinois, purdue, ucla)
Sure they want to expand east and get some schools that could either go SEC or B1G, but they can't leave the LA schools on an island.
No one here is mentioning that you have to appease your largest customer, which is FOX. FOX wants a West Coast pod. -
Im not that concerned. Has a top 20 program been left out in the cold ever before? Why would it happen now? The most realistic scenario is PAC 12 folds then B12 sends an invite and UW and Oregon use that to negotiate with B10 for a half share for a few years and then full share after
How many teams in the B10 are more valuable than UW? 5 including the LA schools? -
So besides all of the questions about exactly who are the millions of people that are going to stream a jacked up version of the Mountain West with 3 marketable teams when AZ leaves, is this an apple + "TV" channel streaming subscription add on or is this an Apple sponsored Pac 8 streaming app on the Apple TV box which is available by subscription or both?
the reason I ask is that "Apple TV" is literally the apple TV box that you buy that enables you to download various apps that you can subscribe to. -
Now is the time to leverage our @WeAreAFatLesboSchool brandLebamDawg said:
and they are all watching women's soccer -
Sure doesn’t seem like FOX cares about that. They could have UW & OR any time they want in the BIG10. And yet here we are…haie said:
They can't sit at 16. It's an arms race with the SEC and they only have 2 west coast schools.
Sure they want to expand east and get some schools that could either go SEC or B1G, but they can't leave the LA schools on an island.
No one here is mentioning that you have to appease your largest customer, which is FOX. FOX wants a West Coast pod. -
Yep here we are… and this lays the groundwork for WA and Or to gladly accept a substantial discount to join the BIG while USC and dos Bruins come in at full value… all they had to do was wait for the announcement of the Pac 8 “deal”
Better yet, the sports networks dont have to own that they broke up the west coast conference.
On the other hand, WA and OR can both now say, we are leaving and we owe no exit fee. -
There are factors at play beyond "fuck it lets just publicly skin 7 schools who used to be our business partner."doogville said:
Sure doesn’t seem like FOX cares about that. They could have UW & OR any time they want in the BIG10. And yet here we are…
Additionally this whole shit show forces UW and Oregon to accept less than a full share which makes all the fucking truck stops happy like Minnesota and Illinois, so that they can easily get the votes they need.
It helps those schools wit travel too. You'd see more of a pro style road trip where ah Indiana plays USC and then flies up to Seattle, does online lecturing/tutoring and practices in a public park before kicking UW's ass. Rather than flying back and forth to wherever the fuck their campus is, Hawkins?
