4 Mariner Draft picks on day 1
Comments
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Ohtani's such a unicorn I'm very willing to roll that die. He's got so many skills that he can still be a very valuable player if they start to erode. As athletic as he is I'm not convinced he ages super quickly either.chuck said:I guess I still have issues with Ohtani commanding 600 mil over 10 years. No way on earth he keeps up this pace, where he's two great players in one, for 10 years. Eventually he's just going to be a DH.
How many years until that becomes reality? The return on investment would be there on and off the field for a while for sure. Would they still be getting acceptable ROI in the back half or are you accepting a few years of the franchise being hamstrung in exchange for 5 or so glory years?
I'm leaning toward yes, as long as his bat doesn't fall off a bunch. Thinking about it still makes me glad they didn't tie themselves down with Trea Turner or Xander Bogarts for the next 10 years. 10 year deals are shit for guys at or near 30 years old.
IF they guy is willing to come here you pretty have to sign him. -
I hope you are right but a trade would hurt big-time (not as high as a younger star player under a few years of club control which would cost Harry Ford and / or Cole Young). It would probably take Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock, Gabriel Gonzalez, and someone like Matt Brash or Taylor Trammell.chuck said:
I actually think they might be willing to go big for Ohtani. Ichiro mania was a real thing, and profitable, and this guy is in another stratosphere.HFNY said:
I think the M's see themselves more as an analytics-driven Tampa Bay type franchise than big-spending teams who are more comfortable spending oodles of money on 1 player.chuck said:I guess I still have issues with Ohtani commanding 600 mil over 10 years. No way on earth he keeps up this pace, where he's two great players in one, for 10 years. Eventually he's just going to be a DH.
How many years until that becomes reality? The return on investment would be there on and off the field for a while for sure. Would they still be getting acceptable ROI in the back half or are you accepting a few years of the franchise being hamstrung in exchange for 5 or so glory years?
I'm leaning toward yes, as long as his bat doesn't fall off a bunch. Thinking about it still makes me glad they didn't tie themselves down with Trea Turner or Xander Bogarts for the next 10 years. 10 year deals are shit for guys at or near 30 years old.
If anything, I don't see them tying up that much money for so long. Maybe the M's offer a 6 year, $450 million deal instead of going out 4 more years and $150 million more. No matter what, I'm sure the M's will make a decent run but will be outbid by one of the LA teams, SD, SF, or even East Coast teams like Boston / NYY / NYM.
Regarding other positions, they still need to figure out how to upgrade 2B, if they are going to resign T. Hernandez, if Kelenic is the medium / long-term answer in LF (or RF), what their plan is for DH. The starting rotation should be good because of Woo, Miller, and Hancock offering some innings in 2024 while Ray will be coming back at some point during 2024 so Othani doesn't offer as much bang for the buck as a pitching desperate team.
If the Angels keep fading and the Ms keep playing well, and there are trade talks, it's a sure sign that Seattle thinks they're going to sign him. They wouldn't bother trying to trade for him otherwise. -
I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money. -
Trust me I'm not holding my breath or even hopeful for any of this. I think I woke up today realizing how badly Dipoto probably wants him. Maybe Stanton even sees there could be enough revenue increase to offset a huge annual increase in payroll.RoadDawg55 said:I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money.
Nah. -
OTOH, you trade for him now and now you have a few months to make an impression on him to get him to sign an extension.RoadDawg55 said:I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money.
If they traded three top prospects, two of them will either wash out or be an average starter, and one will be good to great. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. -
You are assuming that impression would be a good one. He'd also see first hand the crap around him in the lineup, no one ever on base for him and no one to protect him.BleachedAnusDawg said:
OTOH, you trade for him now and now you have a few months to make an impression on him to get him to sign an extension.RoadDawg55 said:I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money.
If they traded three top prospects, two of them will either wash out or be an average starter, and one will be good to great. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. -
He will want to stay on the west coast if there is a winner there.RoadDawg55 said:I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money.
San Francisco is the only team with 3 top 70 prospects to deal for him and then they have the recent success to convince him to lock down a long term deal.
Angels won't help out Dodgers and Seattle doesn't have the prospects.
Angels will probably deal him. He doesn't want to stay there. -
A disappointing team that won’t make the playoffs probably wouldn’t make a good impression. He’s not signing an extension until he tests out free agency.BleachedAnusDawg said:
OTOH, you trade for him now and now you have a few months to make an impression on him to get him to sign an extension.RoadDawg55 said:I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money.
If they traded three top prospects, two of them will either wash out or be an average starter, and one will be good to great. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
The real move would be to sign him and then trade one or two of the young pitchers already pitching for the Mariners for more bats. -
Some thoughts...
I would imagine that any trade would not only be for high-end prospects, but Kirby as well
I think Dip would trade Gilbert, Miller or Woo, but not George
While disappointing (Capt'n Obvious), the M's have several hitters close to league-average (roughly .250)
Ohtani is the "Don't let him beat you" guy that they lack right now, and that cannot be understated... See DJ LeMahieu, Jeff Kent, even Edgar...
His bat is $40mm, so is his arm...$50-60mm per year is a bargain for 5 years, then the "overpaid" part
I don't think anybody is going to trade for a rental without knowing they can re-sign him. IMO, the most-bold move in the history of the game to date. Glad I'm not the one with the decision... -
imo, the mariners don't have the trade capital to land him and be successful in 2023 after the trade, the only way this team would be interesting to him is if they take salary on with picking up at least one bat at the deadline, do not dilute the club in the process, add elite talent in the off season, and then try to get him to sign. I don't see that happening, but i see that as the avenue available to succeeding in getting him to sign if that is what they would want to do.
