4 Mariner Draft picks on day 1
with the desire to up their home grown infield talent going forward [good idea since 2nd base has been a black hole for a while now]
https://mlb.com/news/colt-emerson-drafted-no-22-by-mariners-in-2023-mlb-draft
Comments
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Thanks Taft!
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Can't wait for the 8 year process before any of these guys contribute!
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#itshardBleachedAnusDawg said:Can't wait for the 8 year process before any of these guys contribute!
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I like that they went for bigger dudes with some power potential.
It's at least 50:50 that any of these guys who flash will be trade bait anyways.BleachedAnusDawg said:Can't wait for the 8 year process before any of these guys contribute!
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Aidan Smith in the 4th gives them 4 high schoolers, not sure I can remember them taking so many so high. Certainly not since the bonus pools were implemented. Teddy McGraw's a really interesting 3rd rounder too as a first round talent battling injuries.
I like this draft a lot. We'll see if they can develop these HS bats. -
Back in the day when the draft went 50+ rounds, the percentage of players who signed a contract and made it to the bigs, even for 1 day, was around 10%. That is why I have never begrudged the money they make, especially since most of them never make it to free agency, with the average career lasting about 5 years...
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Well that and tim in the minor leagues is mostly hell.Fishpo31 said:Back in the day when the draft went 50+ rounds, the percentage of players who signed a contract and made it to the bigs, even for 1 day, was around 10%. That is why I have never begrudged the money they make, especially since most of them never make it to free agency, with the average career lasting about 5 years...
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The MLB website liked their draft: https://mlb.com/news/teams-with-best-hauls-in-2023-mlb-draft
This kind of draft also tells me Dipoto and the rest of the front office feel confident in their job security or else they would have gone after more college players. Of course they can still trade some of the H.S. talent in a year or two for MLB level talent to try to get over the hump but the point still (somewhat) stands. -
Yep that was my big takeaway too.HFNY said:The MLB website liked their draft: https://mlb.com/news/teams-with-best-hauls-in-2023-mlb-draft
This kind of draft also tells me Dipoto and the rest of the front office feel confident in their job security or else they would have gone after more college players. Of course they can still trade some of the H.S. talent in a year or two for MLB level talent to try to get over the hump but the point still (somewhat) stands.
I'm glad they went the route they did, it's a really interesting haul.
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I love the obvious plan to load up on hard throwing bullpen guys with nasty sliders. That's a great market to have a corner on. They'll flip a few of those guys within a couple of years to teams who then have to overpay for leverage relievers because they don't develop their own.dnc said:
Yep that was my big takeaway too.HFNY said:The MLB website liked their draft: https://mlb.com/news/teams-with-best-hauls-in-2023-mlb-draft
This kind of draft also tells me Dipoto and the rest of the front office feel confident in their job security or else they would have gone after more college players. Of course they can still trade some of the H.S. talent in a year or two for MLB level talent to try to get over the hump but the point still (somewhat) stands.
I'm glad they went the route they did, it's a really interesting haul.
The minors system was depleted in terms of potential impact bats and now it doesn't look to be. I love the two guys they got at 29 and 30. Big dudes with speed and power. -
Best draft I’ve seen in a while… lots of talent even if it is super young…
This bodes well if the team is willing and wanting to take on payroll ASAP to flesh this out -
Fuck the draft. Sign Ohtani and win now. MLB prospects wash out at the highest rate of any sport.
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Good franchises draft well. Of course sign Ohtani too.BleachedAnusDawg said:Fuck the draft. Sign Ohtani and win now. MLB prospects wash out at the highest rate of any sport.
Abundance. -
dnc said:
Aidan Smith in the 4th gives them 4 high schoolers, not sure I can remember them taking so many so high. Certainly not since the bonus pools were implemented. Teddy McGraw's a really interesting 3rd rounder too as a first round talent battling injuries.
I like this draft a lot. We'll see if they can develop these HS bats.
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Only team in MLB to never get to the World Series. 46th season as a franchise. Trying to sell M's fans on their great draft is an insult. They need to open up their wallets and buy a championship. No one cares about the draft in MLB other than the baseball super nerds because 81% of the players drafted either wash out or are traded.dnc said:
Good franchises draft well. Of course sign Ohtani too.BleachedAnusDawg said:Fuck the draft. Sign Ohtani and win now. MLB prospects wash out at the highest rate of any sport.
Abundance. -
I don't feel anyone is "selling" the draft. It just happens and some of us have no lives so we follow for entertainment purposes.BleachedAnusDawg said:
Only team in MLB to never get to the World Series. 46th season as a franchise. Trying to sell M's fans on their great draft is an insult. They need to open up their wallets and buy a championship. No one cares about the draft in MLB other than the baseball super nerds because 81% of the players drafted either wash out or are traded.dnc said:
Good franchises draft well. Of course sign Ohtani too.BleachedAnusDawg said:Fuck the draft. Sign Ohtani and win now. MLB prospects wash out at the highest rate of any sport.
Abundance.
The Astros and Braves haven't bought their championship teams. They developed them for the most part. The teams that overspent this off-season aren't faring well as a rule.
Gotta do both, draft and develop plus be willing to spend in the right situation. I didn't think so before, but I am coming around to the idea of paying Ohtani $60 million+ per season. I didn't want to see them turn into the Angels, with a superstar or two surrounded by a losing roster. Now I think it would pay for itself and not necessarily freeze up the whole salary budget. -
I guess I still have issues with Ohtani commanding 600 mil over 10 years. No way on earth he keeps up this pace, where he's two great players in one, for 10 years. Eventually he's just going to be a DH.
How many years until that becomes reality? The return on investment would be there on and off the field for a while for sure. Would they still be getting acceptable ROI in the back half or are you accepting a few years of the franchise being hamstrung in exchange for 5 or so glory years?
I'm leaning toward yes, as long as his bat doesn't fall off a bunch. Thinking about it still makes me glad they didn't tie themselves down with Trea Turner or Xander Bogarts for the next 10 years. 10 year deals are shit for guys at or near 30 years old. -
If Ohtani brings a title to Seattle he's worth the money. Doesn't matter what the last 3-4 years look like. By that point they have an updated media deal, etc and his contract is a smaller percentage of revenue, etc.
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I think the M's see themselves more as an analytics-driven Tampa Bay type franchise than big-spending teams who are more comfortable spending oodles of money on 1 player.chuck said:I guess I still have issues with Ohtani commanding 600 mil over 10 years. No way on earth he keeps up this pace, where he's two great players in one, for 10 years. Eventually he's just going to be a DH.
How many years until that becomes reality? The return on investment would be there on and off the field for a while for sure. Would they still be getting acceptable ROI in the back half or are you accepting a few years of the franchise being hamstrung in exchange for 5 or so glory years?
I'm leaning toward yes, as long as his bat doesn't fall off a bunch. Thinking about it still makes me glad they didn't tie themselves down with Trea Turner or Xander Bogarts for the next 10 years. 10 year deals are shit for guys at or near 30 years old.
If anything, I don't see them tying up that much money for so long. Maybe the M's offer a 6 year, $450 million deal instead of going out 4 more years and $150 million more. No matter what, I'm sure the M's will make a decent run but will be outbid by one of the LA teams, SD, SF, or even East Coast teams like Boston / NYY / NYM.
Regarding other positions, they still need to figure out how to upgrade 2B, if they are going to resign T. Hernandez, if Kelenic is the medium / long-term answer in LF (or RF), what their plan is for DH. The starting rotation should be good because of Woo, Miller, and Hancock offering some innings in 2024 while Ray will be coming back at some point during 2024 so Othani doesn't offer as much bang for the buck as a pitching desperate team. -
I actually think they might be willing to go big for Ohtani. Ichiro mania was a real thing, and profitable, and this guy is in another stratosphere.HFNY said:
I think the M's see themselves more as an analytics-driven Tampa Bay type franchise than big-spending teams who are more comfortable spending oodles of money on 1 player.chuck said:I guess I still have issues with Ohtani commanding 600 mil over 10 years. No way on earth he keeps up this pace, where he's two great players in one, for 10 years. Eventually he's just going to be a DH.
How many years until that becomes reality? The return on investment would be there on and off the field for a while for sure. Would they still be getting acceptable ROI in the back half or are you accepting a few years of the franchise being hamstrung in exchange for 5 or so glory years?
I'm leaning toward yes, as long as his bat doesn't fall off a bunch. Thinking about it still makes me glad they didn't tie themselves down with Trea Turner or Xander Bogarts for the next 10 years. 10 year deals are shit for guys at or near 30 years old.
If anything, I don't see them tying up that much money for so long. Maybe the M's offer a 6 year, $450 million deal instead of going out 4 more years and $150 million more. No matter what, I'm sure the M's will make a decent run but will be outbid by one of the LA teams, SD, SF, or even East Coast teams like Boston / NYY / NYM.
Regarding other positions, they still need to figure out how to upgrade 2B, if they are going to resign T. Hernandez, if Kelenic is the medium / long-term answer in LF (or RF), what their plan is for DH. The starting rotation should be good because of Woo, Miller, and Hancock offering some innings in 2024 while Ray will be coming back at some point during 2024 so Othani doesn't offer as much bang for the buck as a pitching desperate team.
If the Angels keep fading and the Ms keep playing well, and there are trade talks, it's a sure sign that Seattle thinks they're going to sign him. They wouldn't bother trying to trade for him otherwise. -
Ohtani's such a unicorn I'm very willing to roll that die. He's got so many skills that he can still be a very valuable player if they start to erode. As athletic as he is I'm not convinced he ages super quickly either.chuck said:I guess I still have issues with Ohtani commanding 600 mil over 10 years. No way on earth he keeps up this pace, where he's two great players in one, for 10 years. Eventually he's just going to be a DH.
How many years until that becomes reality? The return on investment would be there on and off the field for a while for sure. Would they still be getting acceptable ROI in the back half or are you accepting a few years of the franchise being hamstrung in exchange for 5 or so glory years?
I'm leaning toward yes, as long as his bat doesn't fall off a bunch. Thinking about it still makes me glad they didn't tie themselves down with Trea Turner or Xander Bogarts for the next 10 years. 10 year deals are shit for guys at or near 30 years old.
IF they guy is willing to come here you pretty have to sign him. -
I hope you are right but a trade would hurt big-time (not as high as a younger star player under a few years of club control which would cost Harry Ford and / or Cole Young). It would probably take Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock, Gabriel Gonzalez, and someone like Matt Brash or Taylor Trammell.chuck said:
I actually think they might be willing to go big for Ohtani. Ichiro mania was a real thing, and profitable, and this guy is in another stratosphere.HFNY said:
I think the M's see themselves more as an analytics-driven Tampa Bay type franchise than big-spending teams who are more comfortable spending oodles of money on 1 player.chuck said:I guess I still have issues with Ohtani commanding 600 mil over 10 years. No way on earth he keeps up this pace, where he's two great players in one, for 10 years. Eventually he's just going to be a DH.
How many years until that becomes reality? The return on investment would be there on and off the field for a while for sure. Would they still be getting acceptable ROI in the back half or are you accepting a few years of the franchise being hamstrung in exchange for 5 or so glory years?
I'm leaning toward yes, as long as his bat doesn't fall off a bunch. Thinking about it still makes me glad they didn't tie themselves down with Trea Turner or Xander Bogarts for the next 10 years. 10 year deals are shit for guys at or near 30 years old.
If anything, I don't see them tying up that much money for so long. Maybe the M's offer a 6 year, $450 million deal instead of going out 4 more years and $150 million more. No matter what, I'm sure the M's will make a decent run but will be outbid by one of the LA teams, SD, SF, or even East Coast teams like Boston / NYY / NYM.
Regarding other positions, they still need to figure out how to upgrade 2B, if they are going to resign T. Hernandez, if Kelenic is the medium / long-term answer in LF (or RF), what their plan is for DH. The starting rotation should be good because of Woo, Miller, and Hancock offering some innings in 2024 while Ray will be coming back at some point during 2024 so Othani doesn't offer as much bang for the buck as a pitching desperate team.
If the Angels keep fading and the Ms keep playing well, and there are trade talks, it's a sure sign that Seattle thinks they're going to sign him. They wouldn't bother trying to trade for him otherwise. -
I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money. -
Trust me I'm not holding my breath or even hopeful for any of this. I think I woke up today realizing how badly Dipoto probably wants him. Maybe Stanton even sees there could be enough revenue increase to offset a huge annual increase in payroll.RoadDawg55 said:I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money.
Nah. -
OTOH, you trade for him now and now you have a few months to make an impression on him to get him to sign an extension.RoadDawg55 said:I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money.
If they traded three top prospects, two of them will either wash out or be an average starter, and one will be good to great. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. -
You are assuming that impression would be a good one. He'd also see first hand the crap around him in the lineup, no one ever on base for him and no one to protect him.BleachedAnusDawg said:
OTOH, you trade for him now and now you have a few months to make an impression on him to get him to sign an extension.RoadDawg55 said:I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money.
If they traded three top prospects, two of them will either wash out or be an average starter, and one will be good to great. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. -
He will want to stay on the west coast if there is a winner there.RoadDawg55 said:I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money.
San Francisco is the only team with 3 top 70 prospects to deal for him and then they have the recent success to convince him to lock down a long term deal.
Angels won't help out Dodgers and Seattle doesn't have the prospects.
Angels will probably deal him. He doesn't want to stay there. -
A disappointing team that won’t make the playoffs probably wouldn’t make a good impression. He’s not signing an extension until he tests out free agency.BleachedAnusDawg said:
OTOH, you trade for him now and now you have a few months to make an impression on him to get him to sign an extension.RoadDawg55 said:I wouldn’t trade for Ohtani. Wait for free agency. The Mariners aren’t doing anything this year and it would be incredibly risky, if not downright stupid to trade for him when you can bid for him in free agency. The Mariners would be giving up young talent for no reason.
Even signing him in free agency is a pipe dream. He will likely go to the highest bidder and that is unlikely to be the Mariners. He likes Seattle. I’m sure he likes other cities too, especially when they offer more money.
If they traded three top prospects, two of them will either wash out or be an average starter, and one will be good to great. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
The real move would be to sign him and then trade one or two of the young pitchers already pitching for the Mariners for more bats. -
Some thoughts...
I would imagine that any trade would not only be for high-end prospects, but Kirby as well
I think Dip would trade Gilbert, Miller or Woo, but not George
While disappointing (Capt'n Obvious), the M's have several hitters close to league-average (roughly .250)
Ohtani is the "Don't let him beat you" guy that they lack right now, and that cannot be understated... See DJ LeMahieu, Jeff Kent, even Edgar...
His bat is $40mm, so is his arm...$50-60mm per year is a bargain for 5 years, then the "overpaid" part
I don't think anybody is going to trade for a rental without knowing they can re-sign him. IMO, the most-bold move in the history of the game to date. Glad I'm not the one with the decision... -
imo, the mariners don't have the trade capital to land him and be successful in 2023 after the trade, the only way this team would be interesting to him is if they take salary on with picking up at least one bat at the deadline, do not dilute the club in the process, add elite talent in the off season, and then try to get him to sign. I don't see that happening, but i see that as the avenue available to succeeding in getting him to sign if that is what they would want to do.
