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Year Two is the new Year Three

RaceBannon
RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,937 Founders Club
Look out DeBoer

https://si.com/college/2022/10/18/tennessee-josh-heupel-year-2-litmus-test-coaches

With Tennessee’s dazzling performance in upsetting Alabama and the Volunteers’ 7–0 start, it’s time to wonder whether coach Josh Heupel (31) is the next great one in his profession. A lot will depend on how the rest of this season transpires, of course, but so far the 44-year-old Heupel is checking boxes for the Second-Year Litmus Test.

We’ve seen it before: New coach comes into a traditional power program that has been performing below its traditional norm. He needs one year to establish his own culture—apologies for applying that trite and vague word, but it applies. In his second year, the program takes off.

Kirby Smart (32), whose No. 1–ranked Georgia team figures to have a lot to say about how far this Tennessee run can go, started 8–5 with the Bulldogs. In his second year they went 13–2 and were a Tua Tagovailoa bomb in overtime away from winning the national title. Four years later, Smart got his title.

Smart, of course, was a protégé of Nick Saban, who had his own second-season flex in the SEC. Saban started 7–6 at Alabama, then went 12–2 in his second season. The Crimson Tide took an undefeated record into the SEC championship game in 2008 and battled eventual national champion Florida deep into the fourth quarter before submitting. In Year 3, Saban won the first of his six national titles at Alabama.

Speaking of that era of Florida football, Urban Meyer (33) was a Year 2 breakthrough guy there. He went 9–3 his first season, then the next season went 13–1 and won the national title in an upset of Ohio State. The coach he beat in the 2006 championship game was Jim Tressel (34), who catapulted from a 7–5 first season with the Buckeyes in ’01 to a 14–0 national title in ’02. (Tressel also went from 2–9 to 8–2 in his first and second seasons at Youngstown State, well before getting the Ohio State job.)

And two years before Tressel won the natty with the Buckeyes, Bob Stoops (35) did it in his second season at Oklahoma. Year 1 was a 7–5 labor, and Year 2 was a 13–0 masterpiece. His quarterback on that championship team? Josh Heupel.

Heupel was in his second season as the Sooners’ starting QB, after transferring in from junior college, when they won it all. That’s similar to Hendon Hooker’s path to Tennessee, arriving last year as a transfer from Virginia Tech. Saban had a second-year starter at QB on that 2008 team in John Parker Wilson. Craig Krenzel took over as the Ohio State starter late in Tressel’s first year, and that carried over into his second.

Looking elsewhere, should we be giving the same Year 2 breakthrough credit to Lane Kiffin (36) at Mississippi? Ole Miss doesn’t have the consistent, long-haul record of success as the other schools mentioned here, but his arc has been similar in Oxford. Kiffin’s first Ole Miss team went 5–5, then last year jumped up to 10–2 and a Sugar Bowl berth. This season the Rebels are, at present, the only undefeated team in the SEC West.

But not every second-season success story carries forward. Beware the Mel Tucker (37) false breakthrough. After the 2–5 pandemic season debut at Michigan State, the Spartans jumped up to 11–2 and a top-10 finish last year, prompting the school to massively overcompensate Tucker in a new contract. Year 3 has been a 3–4 bust, with all losses coming by double digits. (If Tucker wants to salvage this season, upsetting Michigan in Ann Arbor on Oct. 29 would go a long way.)


Heupel’s agent will absolutely be asking for a massive contract extension—perhaps he already has—but Tennessee athletic director Danny White would be wise to keep the Tucker example in mind. Then again, White should also keep an eye on the situation at Heupel’s alma mater, Oklahoma. Brent Venables assuredly will get a second season leading the Sooners, but if 2023 goes poorly you’d have to wonder whether Oklahoma would try to bring Heupel home.

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Comments

  • CFetters_Nacho_Lover
    CFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 32,307 Founders Club

    Kalen DeBoer went 14-0 and won the natty in his second year

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Sioux_Falls_Cougars_football_team

    That was then. This is now.
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,937 Founders Club

    Kalen DeBoer went 14-0 and won the natty in his second year

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Sioux_Falls_Cougars_football_team

    This isn't NAIA football brother

    But his record there is insane
  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,303 Founders Club
    edited October 2022

    Rick won the Roe Bowl year 2

    Still waiting for better we were promised


    10-2
    10-2
    5-6
    8-4

    7-5
    11-1
    8-4
    7-6

    If you wanted to win big in year 2, Rick was your guy. But he's a proven short term high. But what a good high it was.
  • HuskyJW
    HuskyJW Member Posts: 15,279

    Look out DeBoer

    https://si.com/college/2022/10/18/tennessee-josh-heupel-year-2-litmus-test-coaches

    With Tennessee’s dazzling performance in upsetting Alabama and the Volunteers’ 7–0 start, it’s time to wonder whether coach Josh Heupel (31) is the next great one in his profession. A lot will depend on how the rest of this season transpires, of course, but so far the 44-year-old Heupel is checking boxes for the Second-Year Litmus Test.

    We’ve seen it before: New coach comes into a traditional power program that has been performing below its traditional norm. He needs one year to establish his own culture—apologies for applying that trite and vague word, but it applies. In his second year, the program takes off.

    Kirby Smart (32), whose No. 1–ranked Georgia team figures to have a lot to say about how far this Tennessee run can go, started 8–5 with the Bulldogs. In his second year they went 13–2 and were a Tua Tagovailoa bomb in overtime away from winning the national title. Four years later, Smart got his title.

    Smart, of course, was a protégé of Nick Saban, who had his own second-season flex in the SEC. Saban started 7–6 at Alabama, then went 12–2 in his second season. The Crimson Tide took an undefeated record into the SEC championship game in 2008 and battled eventual national champion Florida deep into the fourth quarter before submitting. In Year 3, Saban won the first of his six national titles at Alabama.

    Speaking of that era of Florida football, Urban Meyer (33) was a Year 2 breakthrough guy there. He went 9–3 his first season, then the next season went 13–1 and won the national title in an upset of Ohio State. The coach he beat in the 2006 championship game was Jim Tressel (34), who catapulted from a 7–5 first season with the Buckeyes in ’01 to a 14–0 national title in ’02. (Tressel also went from 2–9 to 8–2 in his first and second seasons at Youngstown State, well before getting the Ohio State job.)

    And two years before Tressel won the natty with the Buckeyes, Bob Stoops (35) did it in his second season at Oklahoma. Year 1 was a 7–5 labor, and Year 2 was a 13–0 masterpiece. His quarterback on that championship team? Josh Heupel.

    Heupel was in his second season as the Sooners’ starting QB, after transferring in from junior college, when they won it all. That’s similar to Hendon Hooker’s path to Tennessee, arriving last year as a transfer from Virginia Tech. Saban had a second-year starter at QB on that 2008 team in John Parker Wilson. Craig Krenzel took over as the Ohio State starter late in Tressel’s first year, and that carried over into his second.

    Looking elsewhere, should we be giving the same Year 2 breakthrough credit to Lane Kiffin (36) at Mississippi? Ole Miss doesn’t have the consistent, long-haul record of success as the other schools mentioned here, but his arc has been similar in Oxford. Kiffin’s first Ole Miss team went 5–5, then last year jumped up to 10–2 and a Sugar Bowl berth. This season the Rebels are, at present, the only undefeated team in the SEC West.

    But not every second-season success story carries forward. Beware the Mel Tucker (37) false breakthrough. After the 2–5 pandemic season debut at Michigan State, the Spartans jumped up to 11–2 and a top-10 finish last year, prompting the school to massively overcompensate Tucker in a new contract. Year 3 has been a 3–4 bust, with all losses coming by double digits. (If Tucker wants to salvage this season, upsetting Michigan in Ann Arbor on Oct. 29 would go a long way.)


    Heupel’s agent will absolutely be asking for a massive contract extension—perhaps he already has—but Tennessee athletic director Danny White would be wise to keep the Tucker example in mind. Then again, White should also keep an eye on the situation at Heupel’s alma mater, Oklahoma. Brent Venables assuredly will get a second season leading the Sooners, but if 2023 goes poorly you’d have to wonder whether Oklahoma would try to bring Heupel home.

    The portal has definitely sped up the potential for a turn around.

    Imagine this team if it was still starting Morris.
    We lose to MSU and UA for sure so far
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,937 Founders Club

    Rick won the Roe Bowl year 2

    Still waiting for better we were promised


    10-2
    10-2
    5-6
    8-4

    7-5
    11-1
    8-4
    7-6

    If you wanted to win big in year 2, Rick was your guy. But he's a proven short term high. But what a good high it was.
    Rick is the white Mel Tucker

    Got the big contract too
  • WoolleyDoog
    WoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,147 Founders Club
    Georgia and Tennessee aren't good or fair comparisons. They're programs that will spend a bunch on NIL and actually have big time college football players in their geography. UW won't spend money on NIL and the state and greater region is getting worse and worse at producing players that can play for Top 25 team and stars and the rare ones don't want to stick around.

    The only way I could see UW having a Tennessee-level breakthrough is a coach that's an Urban/Chip/Harbaugh-level hire and I just have a hard time seeing that in Deboer so far.
  • dtd
    dtd Member Posts: 5,291 Standard Supporter
    Meat went 12-2 and won teh rose bowel his 2nd year.
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,937 Founders Club
    dtd said:

    Meat went 12-2 and won teh rose bowel his 2nd year.

    Pressure mounting on DeBoer
  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,303 Founders Club

    Georgia and Tennessee aren't good or fair comparisons. They're programs that will spend a bunch on NIL and actually have big time college football players in their geography. UW won't spend money on NIL and the state and greater region is getting worse and worse at producing players that can play for Top 25 team and stars and the rare ones don't want to stick around.

    The only way I could see UW having a Tennessee-level breakthrough is a coach that's an Urban/Chip/Harbaugh-level hire and I just have a hard time seeing that in Deboer so far.

    The university of we can't

    Jen loves these posts
    Football is a lagging indicator on the left coast.
  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,303 Founders Club
    edited October 2022

    My point is that they operate as the program that can't. I think Washington could easily be a 12-2 program with Deboer, especially in a terrible Pac-12. Though I think letting Oregon and USC pull away so far from them in recruiting in recent seasons is going to make it a lot harder.

    Beboer was a good hire to me, especially when you look at who Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas and hell even Oklahoma have hired in recent years.

    They needed to take the money they saved in hiring Deboer instead of Campbell supposedly and invest that in a real DC and position coaches. A real AD should say hell no, we're not bringing over the Fresno State D staff up here. Someone like Tim Derutyer should have been a floor. Should have also brought on a consultant for the offense who has been in the Pac-12 before as well. I'm fine with Grubb and Deboer but need someone who has been there before as well.

    NIL and how to it could be better is a dead horse, but obviously that needs to happen too.

    I know I've beat a dead horse on this topic, but is it wrong of me to not give a shit as to whether UW excels at NIL or not? I'm willing to accept the theoretical ceiling that this puts on the program.
  • WoolleyDoog
    WoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,147 Founders Club

    My point is that they operate as the program that can't. I think Washington could easily be a 12-2 program with Deboer, especially in a terrible Pac-12. Though I think letting Oregon and USC pull away so far from them in recruiting in recent seasons is going to make it a lot harder.

    Beboer was a good hire to me, especially when you look at who Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas and hell even Oklahoma have hired in recent years.

    They needed to take the money they saved in hiring Deboer instead of Campbell supposedly and invest that in a real DC and position coaches. A real AD should say hell no, we're not bringing over the Fresno State D staff up here. Someone like Tim Derutyer should have been a floor. Should have also brought on a consultant for the offense who has been in the Pac-12 before as well. I'm fine with Grubb and Deboer but need someone who has been there before as well.

    NIL and how to it could be better is a dead horse, but obviously that needs to happen too.

    I know I've beat a dead horse on this topic, but is it wrong of me to not give a shit as to whether UW excels at NIL or not? I'm willing to accept the theoretical ceiling that this puts on the program.
    Sure, but based on early returns, they're going to have a very hard time ever beating Oregon or USC if they don't excel at NIL. Whether they are in the Big 10 of the Pac-10. Most likely, what Utah is right now is the ceiling. Maybe a little higher because of market, maybe a little lower because of lack of commitment to win and academis standards.
  • DerekJohnson
    DerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 68,440 Founders Club

    dtd said:

    Meat went 12-2 and won teh rose bowel his 2nd year.

    Pressure mounting on DeBoer
    The only pressure mounting on DeBoer would be coming from here
  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,303 Founders Club

    My point is that they operate as the program that can't. I think Washington could easily be a 12-2 program with Deboer, especially in a terrible Pac-12. Though I think letting Oregon and USC pull away so far from them in recruiting in recent seasons is going to make it a lot harder.

    Beboer was a good hire to me, especially when you look at who Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas and hell even Oklahoma have hired in recent years.

    They needed to take the money they saved in hiring Deboer instead of Campbell supposedly and invest that in a real DC and position coaches. A real AD should say hell no, we're not bringing over the Fresno State D staff up here. Someone like Tim Derutyer should have been a floor. Should have also brought on a consultant for the offense who has been in the Pac-12 before as well. I'm fine with Grubb and Deboer but need someone who has been there before as well.

    NIL and how to it could be better is a dead horse, but obviously that needs to happen too.

    I know I've beat a dead horse on this topic, but is it wrong of me to not give a shit as to whether UW excels at NIL or not? I'm willing to accept the theoretical ceiling that this puts on the program.
    Sure, but based on early returns, they're going to have a very hard time ever beating Oregon or USC if they don't excel at NIL. Whether they are in the Big 10 of the Pac-10. Most likely, what Utah is right now is the ceiling. Maybe a little higher because of market, maybe a little lower because of lack of commitment to win and academis standards.
    It will be interesting to see if Oregon and USC can buy their way into the Natty Game.
  • Canadawg
    Canadawg Member Posts: 5,327
    edited October 2022
    I'm not worried about the talent available to Washington. Don't be fooled by the SEC bias


  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,101

    Georgia and Tennessee aren't good or fair comparisons. They're programs that will spend a bunch on NIL and actually have big time college football players in their geography. UW won't spend money on NIL and the state and greater region is getting worse and worse at producing players that can play for Top 25 team and stars and the rare ones don't want to stick around.

    The only way I could see UW having a Tennessee-level breakthrough is a coach that's an Urban/Chip/Harbaugh-level hire and I just have a hard time seeing that in Deboer so far.

    The university of we can't

    Jen loves these posts
    Is it wrong to call it as it is?

    Jen’s never going to sign off on doing what is necessary to win at elite levels in the NIL world … and Upper Campus has shown zero signs of being ok with it either.
  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,101

    My point is that they operate as the program that can't. I think Washington could easily be a 12-2 program with Deboer, especially in a terrible Pac-12. Though I think letting Oregon and USC pull away so far from them in recruiting in recent seasons is going to make it a lot harder.

    Beboer was a good hire to me, especially when you look at who Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas and hell even Oklahoma have hired in recent years.

    They needed to take the money they saved in hiring Deboer instead of Campbell supposedly and invest that in a real DC and position coaches. A real AD should say hell no, we're not bringing over the Fresno State D staff up here. Someone like Tim Derutyer should have been a floor. Should have also brought on a consultant for the offense who has been in the Pac-12 before as well. I'm fine with Grubb and Deboer but need someone who has been there before as well.

    NIL and how to it could be better is a dead horse, but obviously that needs to happen too.

    Doesn’t matter who the coaches are if you can’t get the players
  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,101

    My point is that they operate as the program that can't. I think Washington could easily be a 12-2 program with Deboer, especially in a terrible Pac-12. Though I think letting Oregon and USC pull away so far from them in recruiting in recent seasons is going to make it a lot harder.

    Beboer was a good hire to me, especially when you look at who Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas and hell even Oklahoma have hired in recent years.

    They needed to take the money they saved in hiring Deboer instead of Campbell supposedly and invest that in a real DC and position coaches. A real AD should say hell no, we're not bringing over the Fresno State D staff up here. Someone like Tim Derutyer should have been a floor. Should have also brought on a consultant for the offense who has been in the Pac-12 before as well. I'm fine with Grubb and Deboer but need someone who has been there before as well.

    NIL and how to it could be better is a dead horse, but obviously that needs to happen too.

    I know I've beat a dead horse on this topic, but is it wrong of me to not give a shit as to whether UW excels at NIL or not? I'm willing to accept the theoretical ceiling that this puts on the program.
    If UW isn’t interested in playing the game by the current rules why should you care about what success looks like?
  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,101

    dtd said:

    Meat went 12-2 and won teh rose bowel his 2nd year.

    Pressure mounting on DeBoer
    The only pressure mounting on DeBoer would be coming from here
    If you look around there is noise about the defense being an emerging issue … notably from former players

    There’s minimal pressure on KDB if he addresses it …

    But if he just runs it back with similar results …
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,937 Founders Club
    Tequilla said:

    Georgia and Tennessee aren't good or fair comparisons. They're programs that will spend a bunch on NIL and actually have big time college football players in their geography. UW won't spend money on NIL and the state and greater region is getting worse and worse at producing players that can play for Top 25 team and stars and the rare ones don't want to stick around.

    The only way I could see UW having a Tennessee-level breakthrough is a coach that's an Urban/Chip/Harbaugh-level hire and I just have a hard time seeing that in Deboer so far.

    The university of we can't

    Jen loves these posts
    Is it wrong to call it as it is?

    Jen’s never going to sign off on doing what is necessary to win at elite levels in the NIL world … and Upper Campus has shown zero signs of being ok with it either.
    It's wrong to accept it and resign yourself to it

    And to parrot the company line

    That's what Jen wants. Shut up and pay and be happy with 8-4

    We'd still be speaking English if we just accept things how they are
  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,101

    Tequilla said:

    Georgia and Tennessee aren't good or fair comparisons. They're programs that will spend a bunch on NIL and actually have big time college football players in their geography. UW won't spend money on NIL and the state and greater region is getting worse and worse at producing players that can play for Top 25 team and stars and the rare ones don't want to stick around.

    The only way I could see UW having a Tennessee-level breakthrough is a coach that's an Urban/Chip/Harbaugh-level hire and I just have a hard time seeing that in Deboer so far.

    The university of we can't

    Jen loves these posts
    Is it wrong to call it as it is?

    Jen’s never going to sign off on doing what is necessary to win at elite levels in the NIL world … and Upper Campus has shown zero signs of being ok with it either.
    It's wrong to accept it and resign yourself to it

    And to parrot the company line

    That's what Jen wants. Shut up and pay and be happy with 8-4

    We'd still be speaking English if we just accept things how they are
    I’m with you on the accepting it part … gets me in a lot of trouble with those that accept it

    Reality though is that until there is a change in leadership you’re going to get the results we are seeing

    There’s a low percentage of people on Montlake that want to be accountable
  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,303 Founders Club
    Tequilla said:

    My point is that they operate as the program that can't. I think Washington could easily be a 12-2 program with Deboer, especially in a terrible Pac-12. Though I think letting Oregon and USC pull away so far from them in recruiting in recent seasons is going to make it a lot harder.

    Beboer was a good hire to me, especially when you look at who Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas and hell even Oklahoma have hired in recent years.

    They needed to take the money they saved in hiring Deboer instead of Campbell supposedly and invest that in a real DC and position coaches. A real AD should say hell no, we're not bringing over the Fresno State D staff up here. Someone like Tim Derutyer should have been a floor. Should have also brought on a consultant for the offense who has been in the Pac-12 before as well. I'm fine with Grubb and Deboer but need someone who has been there before as well.

    NIL and how to it could be better is a dead horse, but obviously that needs to happen too.

    I know I've beat a dead horse on this topic, but is it wrong of me to not give a shit as to whether UW excels at NIL or not? I'm willing to accept the theoretical ceiling that this puts on the program.
    If UW isn’t interested in playing the game by the current rules why should you care about what success looks like?
    That's the point. I don't care that much anymore, because of the current rules.

    And frankly my dear @Tequilla , I don't give a damn that UW isn't that interested.

  • TheHB
    TheHB Member Posts: 6,457
    The growing number of empty seats at Husky Stadium is proof that UW administration's plan is proceeding as desired.