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5-star QB's usually suck
BleachedAnusDawg
Member Posts: 13,872 
Hugh Millen was talking about 5-star QB hit rates the other day in terms of actually data, not opinion. Let's just say that the odds of Sam Huard being worth a shit or even finishing his degree at UW are slim.
He took the 12 guys rated directly above Huard since 2000 (because the assumption would be that those guys should all be more likely than Huard to have successful careers). Huard is rated 19th overall out of the 45 total 5-star QB's since these ratings began.
This is off of memory, but it was:
- 8 or 9 of the 12 transferred from their original school and none of them ever became more than a middle of the road starter. And this is before the transfer portal so these guys had to actually try to leave.
- One of them won a NY6 game.
- Only five of the twelve won any kind of bowl game.
There were a couple other data points he mentioned that I don't recall, but they all were logical tie-ins to what you would assume a successful college QB would achieve and none of the data sounded good.
He took the 12 guys rated directly above Huard since 2000 (because the assumption would be that those guys should all be more likely than Huard to have successful careers). Huard is rated 19th overall out of the 45 total 5-star QB's since these ratings began.
This is off of memory, but it was:
- 8 or 9 of the 12 transferred from their original school and none of them ever became more than a middle of the road starter. And this is before the transfer portal so these guys had to actually try to leave.
- One of them won a NY6 game.
- Only five of the twelve won any kind of bowl game.
There were a couple other data points he mentioned that I don't recall, but they all were logical tie-ins to what you would assume a successful college QB would achieve and none of the data sounded good.
Comments
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Might as well not even recruit a 5 star
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He is so jealous we took Damon's kid over his.
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If you were him, you would be bitter too. Don’t blame himdnc said:He is so jealous we took Damon's kid over his.
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Probably, but them are the facts.dnc said:He is so jealous we took Damon's kid over his.
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I don't think that's the moral of the story.MikeDamone said:Might as well not even recruit a 5 star
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They're facts but it's still slanted.BleachedAnusDawg said:
Probably, but them are the facts.dnc said:He is so jealous we took Damon's kid over his.
Did he takes the ones higher than Huard because they are the ones more likely to have a better career, or because they are the ones that fit his narrative better?
It would make far more sense to look at all 45 5 stars than a subset of 5 stars. It's already a very small sample, no need to reduce further. -
One of them won a NY6 game.
Have done zero research but this 100% can't be true. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields both won playoff games and they were both top 3 overall in their class (top 2 I believe). -
Tua as well.dnc said:One of them won a NY6 game.
Have done zero research but this 100% can't be true. Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields both won playoff games and they were both top 3 overall in their class (top 2 I believe). -
I don't think that's the moral of the story.MikeDamone said:Might as well not even recruit a 5 star
His retort to that was that if the guys rated below Huard weren't successful people would just say "well they're rated lower than him so who cares?" By looking at the guys who were projected as more likely to succeed, and seeing that they did not, it doesn't bode well.dnc said:
They're facts but it's still slanted.BleachedAnusDawg said:
Probably, but them are the facts.dnc said:He is so jealous we took Damon's kid over his.
Did he takes the ones higher than Huard because they are the ones more likely to have a better career, or because they are the ones that fit his narrative better?
It would make far more sense to look at all 45 5 stars than a subset of 5 stars. It's already a very small sample, no need to reduce further.
ATBS, it could be that the 12 below Huard all won natties or something and that wouldn't fit his narrative.
