Go Dawgs, UW IMHE updates models for Omicron...

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Midterms coming up and the fullback dive is finally getting stopped. Time to shift the narrative.

DoogieMcDoogerson said:

Pretty fascinating stuff.

"The other thing we've noted on the policy front is that many of the policies around testing in schools and workplace that evolved for prior variants, with much high infection-hospitalization rates and infection-fatality rates, and the required period of isolation after a positive test, are going to be very problematic during the omicron surge.

Because the numbers are so much larger for omicron, so many people will be asymptomatic. If you follow the same protocols, you may end up with some employers with a huge reduction in available staff. I think many organizations will have to rethink whether or not testing of asymptomatics and isolation is actually going to make a difference, and is worth the disruption in school or the workplace.

Last on the policy front, we're clearly in an era where infections (most of them) are very mild, that even reported cases, many of them are going to be mild, it's probably time, at least on the local level, to shift our focus from reported cases to what's happening to hospitalizations.

We believe the timely, relevant metric to track in the future during omicron, is going to be hospital admissions. That'll help keep focus on severe outcomes and what is happening in different communities."

https://www.healthdata.org/covid/video/insights-ihmes-latest-covid-19-model-run

hardhat said:

DoogieMcDoogerson said:

Pretty fascinating stuff.

"The other thing we've noted on the policy front is that many of the policies around testing in schools and workplace that evolved for prior variants, with much high infection-hospitalization rates and infection-fatality rates, and the required period of isolation after a positive test, are going to be very problematic during the omicron surge.

Because the numbers are so much larger for omicron, so many people will be asymptomatic. If you follow the same protocols, you may end up with some employers with a huge reduction in available staff. I think many organizations will have to rethink whether or not testing of asymptomatics and isolation is actually going to make a difference, and is worth the disruption in school or the workplace.

Last on the policy front, we're clearly in an era where infections (most of them) are very mild, that even reported cases, many of them are going to be mild, it's probably time, at least on the local level, to shift our focus from reported cases to what's happening to hospitalizations.

We believe the timely, relevant metric to track in the future during omicron, is going to be hospital admissions. That'll help keep focus on severe outcomes and what is happening in different communities."

https://www.healthdata.org/covid/video/insights-ihmes-latest-covid-19-model-run

They have different models, ranging from worst cast to best case. What's weird is none of their original shit came true anyway, so I wonder why we should still listen to them.