Query for @UW_Doog_Bot

pawz said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Hedgeye's model that is easy to understand.

China was in quad 2 for a long time with essentially MMT and the US capital markets propping up investments. "The party".

They covered their numbers up forever while in quad 3 "stagflation" as gdp growth fell and they kept pumping. Great for asset owners, real estate anyone?

They are quickly headed towards quad 4 and a deflationary cliff. Maybe they can keep kicking the can but lots of the recent defaults suggest otherwise. Supply chains are exiting stage left and real estate is about to undergo a massive correction. They don't have a currency anyone is going to keep as a reserve....plus a lot more.

Everyone says they're the next Japan while ignoring that Japan had a massive real estate and market collapse THEN generations of deflation so OK!

How are we not facing the same dynamic - on the fast track to stage 4?

Is survival of empires - game of thrones so to speak - who delays the inevitable longest? Or are you suggesting that our? ability to pivot quickly is what can save us?

Do our? elites even exist with that predilection anymore? (Speaking of why the blue collar working class loved Trump.)


As always, TIA

We Are!

But we've had many recessions before and are likely to continue to have them. How many have you lived through? I can count five in my short life I've been through. Our structural problems are miniscule compared to China's because we have allowed shitty businesses to close and for innovation to replace them.

The CCP hasn't experienced a real recession since Nixon opened things up. They are facing the largest real estate bubble in history, I really can't even express to you without going full macro how big it is. That's one, admittedly large(30%+), sector of their economy AND its indicative of the way things are done in China. Shadow banks, a screwed up reserve system, overbuilt tofu dreg capital infrastructure that is a drag on the economy, electrical grid systematic failure, and many more examples are all waiting to explode. This is Japan from the 80's and their bridges to nowhere on steroids with the entire world's capital leveraged as well.

All of the war drums they are currently beating over India and Taiwan are for them to drum up nationalism and distract from their domestic agendas collapsing.

Again, I'll reiterate, OUR? decline and China's aren't mutually exclusive. We have real issues too. They pail in comparison and are magnitudes different in size to what the CCP is wrestling with and we? have thousands of inherent advantages baked in compared to them.

China is a threat. They are a yuge problem. There's also no fucking way they are going to take over the world without the USA first committing seppuku.

Lol, Four Gorges damn ALONE could wipe out most of China without us lifting a finger.