Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.
What I’m buying
Baseman
Member Posts: 12,369
Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
Comments
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I am more of an Autozone guy, myself. How's their stonk looking?
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Fair. Oreilly earns higher returns on their capital. Higher margins and also serves local mechanics shops in addition to DIY. For those reasons, I prefer OreillyBleachedAnusDawg said:I am more of an Autozone guy, myself. How's their stonk looking?
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Get in oreilly before earnings on Wednesday or after you think?
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I bought more before. It's a long-term play for me but I think they'll exceed, again. Domino's last week euphoria? IDK. I like Oreilly a lot LTntxduck said:Get in oreilly before earnings on Wednesday or after you think?
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NAPA. O'Reilly's and Autozone are for late night desperation parts purchases.
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Hard Pass on NAPA. POOR Capital Allocation. Low returns on capital. Shit margins. Explains their little to now growth.1to392831weretaken said:NAPA. O'Reilly's and Autozone are for late night desperation parts purchases.
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NAPA stores are always the most run down pieces of junk. Stupid or not, that's how I view their place in the market. Autozone and Oreilly's are in nice buildings built for them, not broken down gas stations which were last in operation in the 1950's.
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Looks like a good day to get into Etsy. Scooped some at 193
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When I replaced the power steering pump/hoses in my truck recently, I first ordered parts on RockAuto because I'm lazy, then went to O'Reilly's, then Autozone, then NAPA.
RockAuto shipped the wrong parts and their site has no CS number or email, so I'm SOL, which left me hunting down replacement hoses after NAPA had closed. Had NAPA still been open, I would have gotten hoses that didn't leak right out of the package on the first go and saved myself over a hundred dollars and three hours.
This has been my experience over and over and over again. Want quality brake components for decent price? NAPA ultra premium line pads and rotors. Want to talk to somebody behind the counter who's actually seen under the hood of a car before and not some high school kid who can't tell you shit that you can't find for yourself on their website? Go to NAPA.
That O'Reilly's and Autozone are good stock buys and NAPA is shit is today's example of the race to the bottom in full effect. You don't pump up that stock value by paying employees well, improving customer service, and selling quality products--those moves are for losers. Hire retards to sell boatloads of cheap Chinese shit: Winning. -
Nice ER from oreilly @Baseman
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What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned -
Damn Tesla is running
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my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter89ute said:
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
of if, it’s when. -
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.Baseman said:
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter89ute said:
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
of if, it’s when. -
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.greenblood said:
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.Baseman said:
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter89ute said:
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
of if, it’s when.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you. -
I'm soldBaseman said:
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.greenblood said:
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.Baseman said:
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter89ute said:
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
of if, it’s when.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you. -
Baseman said:
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.greenblood said:
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.Baseman said:
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter89ute said:
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
of if, it’s when.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.
greenblood said:
I'm soldBaseman said:
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.greenblood said:
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.Baseman said:
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter89ute said:
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
of if, it’s when.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.
Or you could believe Morgan Stanleygreenblood said:
I'm soldBaseman said:
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.greenblood said:
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.Baseman said:
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter89ute said:
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
of if, it’s when.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.
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Meant to only reply to greenblood, not sure how the graphic of ev sales plus reply to Baseman got all twisted up in here but it's a cool graphic anyway.
Tablet challenged. -
I bought ASTR a few weeks ago at the urging of some friends after it dropped down to 8.50 or so. We'll see where that goes throughout the year.
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Baseman, I hope your puts are nothing more than play money. Tesla has such a huge market share, it can only go down. The EV pie is exploding. Regardless of who is making the car, demand exceeds supply hugely. Tesla has two more production plants that will put out cars this year, fully ramped very early 2021. That's 3X current production. Tesla also guided 50% growth for multiple years. All while legacy is still holding their dicks.
I get that their PE is something stupid like 250 compared to auto industry of 14. Even though Tesla is kicking ass as an EV car company, you've got to know they are much more than that.
Save your money and buy puts on Robinhood instead. -
Etsy - have my eye on a bull put credit spread. It plunged on earnings release Thursday, despite a double beat. Adjusted downward guidance provoked a sell off. This scenario is prime for a pop right back up.
8/4 close 202, 8/6 close 178. By close 8/13 my money says Etsy is +178.
For those going long, I'd jump in now at 178.
Nice 165 starting point Baseman! -
I don't know ASTR but looking at the chart it looks like a classic meme stock. Memed big once then once again recently but much smaller. Are you betting it gets memed again? Could be a while or never.Doogles said:I bought ASTR a few weeks ago at the urging of some friends after it dropped down to 8.50 or so. We'll see where that goes throughout the year.
One way to look at it, sell now and take a 23% profit. Buy a put next time it memes. -
Let's go with Morgan Stanley. Assume they're correct, at today's price you're paying 73x+ estimated 2023 earnings for a car company.89ute said:Baseman said:
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.greenblood said:
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.Baseman said:
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter89ute said:
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
of if, it’s when.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.greenblood said:
I'm soldBaseman said:
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.greenblood said:
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.Baseman said:
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter89ute said:
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
of if, it’s when.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.
Or you could believe Morgan Stanleygreenblood said:
I'm soldBaseman said:
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.greenblood said:
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.Baseman said:
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter89ute said:
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
of if, it’s when.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.
A car company that currently relies on current governmental policy -- environmental credits -- for over 40 percent of net operating profit.
Paying 73x Morgan Stanley's earnings estimated '23 earnings when the current 10 year yield sits ~ 1.35%. Fed treasury buying and low inflation has inflated market multiples.
Assume the credits remain, rates remain at current levels, and Tesla meets Morgan Stanley's numbers. The growth requires massive cap-ex for factories to meet demand. Factories in China where much of Morgan Stanley's Tesla growth thesis relies on. Check out Baidu, Didi et all and see how China governmental policy is hammering - destroying - current market multiples.
Now all this massive cap ex that leads to revenue growth and profitably, awesome. Where is the free cash flow? Factories and Tesla autos. Where is the free cash flow for the shareholders for buybacks, dividends and strategic opportunities? Auto makers require capital and lots of it. Where does the capital required for growth come from? Debt or equity. Debt that bloats a balance sheet and weighs on earnings. Equity dilutes existing shareholders.
I've already given you Cisco as a cautionary case study. How about Fed-ex? Massive moat, and along with UPS, they have an oligopoly. Rising revenues, profits, etc. etc. Why has their stock underperformed the SP? Poor return on invested capital. High Cap-ex. Eventually the market discounts the multiple.
Tesla is a car company. Unlike Apple, Tesla hasn't demonstrated their lower margin hardware sales will lead to recurring high margin high profit services.
Believe Morgan Stanley. Buy or own Tesla today at 70x 2023 estimates and tie up your owner's capital in factories and cars.
I'll pass. -
Didn't like Etsys earnings. Im keeping my position but not buying more. They have to prove they are more than an artsy occasional purchase.89ute said:Etsy - have my eye on a bull put credit spread. It plunged on earnings release Thursday, despite a double beat. Adjusted downward guidance provoked a sell off. This scenario is prime for a pop right back up.
8/4 close 202, 8/6 close 178. By close 8/13 my money says Etsy is +178.
For those going long, I'd jump in now at 178.
Nice 165 starting point Baseman! -
Etsy is a legit company. A lot of women love it.Baseman said:
Didn't like Etsys earnings. Im keeping my position but not buying more. They have to prove they are more than an artsy occasional purchase.89ute said:Etsy - have my eye on a bull put credit spread. It plunged on earnings release Thursday, despite a double beat. Adjusted downward guidance provoked a sell off. This scenario is prime for a pop right back up.
8/4 close 202, 8/6 close 178. By close 8/13 my money says Etsy is +178.
For those going long, I'd jump in now at 178.
Nice 165 starting point Baseman! -
RoadDawg55 said:
Etsy is a legit company.Baseman said:
Didn't like Etsys earnings. Im keeping my position but not buying more. They have to prove they are more than an artsy occasional purchase.89ute said:Etsy - have my eye on a bull put credit spread. It plunged on earnings release Thursday, despite a double beat. Adjusted downward guidance provoked a sell off. This scenario is prime for a pop right back up.
8/4 close 202, 8/6 close 178. By close 8/13 my money says Etsy is +178.
For those going long, I'd jump in now at 178.
Nice 165 starting point Baseman!A lot ofwomen love it. -
I thought it was relevant. IIRC Tesla makes cars and looses its ass but is profitable through energy sales or some shit like that.89ute said:Meant to only reply to greenblood, not sure how the graphic of ev sales plus reply to Baseman got all twisted up in here but it's a cool graphic anyway.
Tablet challenged. -
EV sales make up less than 2% of the market.89ute said:Meant to only reply to greenblood, not sure how the graphic of ev sales plus reply to Baseman got all twisted up in here but it's a cool graphic anyway.
Tablet challenged. -
BUMP. Love me some SARK (ETF not the coach)Baseman said:
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.greenblood said:
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.Baseman said:
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter89ute said:
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?Baseman said:Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
of if, it’s when.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.
Lost $3,000 on Tesla Put spreads. About ready to put another one on
