Baseman, I hope your puts are nothing more than play money. Tesla has such a huge market share, it can only go down. The EV pie is exploding. Regardless of who is making the car, demand exceeds supply hugely. Tesla has two more production plants that will put out cars this year, fully ramped very early 2021. That's 3X current production. Tesla also guided 50% growth for multiple years. All while legacy is still holding their dicks.
I get that their PE is something stupid like 250 compared to auto industry of 14. Even though Tesla is kicking ass as an EV car company, you've got to know they are much more than that.
Save your money and buy puts on Robinhood instead.
Etsy - have my eye on a bull put credit spread. It plunged on earnings release Thursday, despite a double beat. Adjusted downward guidance provoked a sell off. This scenario is prime for a pop right back up.
8/4 close 202, 8/6 close 178. By close 8/13 my money says Etsy is +178.
I bought ASTR a few weeks ago at the urging of some friends after it dropped down to 8.50 or so. We'll see where that goes throughout the year.
I don't know ASTR but looking at the chart it looks like a classic meme stock. Memed big once then once again recently but much smaller. Are you betting it gets memed again? Could be a while or never.
One way to look at it, sell now and take a 23% profit. Buy a put next time it memes.
Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding. Etsy started at $165. Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter of if, it’s when.
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates 4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple Stocks will collapse.
Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding. Etsy started at $165. Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter of if, it’s when.
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates 4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple Stocks will collapse.
Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding. Etsy started at $165. Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter of if, it’s when.
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates 4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.
I'm sold
Or you could believe Morgan Stanley
Let's go with Morgan Stanley. Assume they're correct, at today's price you're paying 73x+ estimated 2023 earnings for a car company.
A car company that currently relies on current governmental policy -- environmental credits -- for over 40 percent of net operating profit.
Paying 73x Morgan Stanley's earnings estimated '23 earnings when the current 10 year yield sits ~ 1.35%. Fed treasury buying and low inflation has inflated market multiples.
Assume the credits remain, rates remain at current levels, and Tesla meets Morgan Stanley's numbers. The growth requires massive cap-ex for factories to meet demand. Factories in China where much of Morgan Stanley's Tesla growth thesis relies on. Check out Baidu, Didi et all and see how China governmental policy is hammering - destroying - current market multiples.
Now all this massive cap ex that leads to revenue growth and profitably, awesome. Where is the free cash flow? Factories and Tesla autos. Where is the free cash flow for the shareholders for buybacks, dividends and strategic opportunities? Auto makers require capital and lots of it. Where does the capital required for growth come from? Debt or equity. Debt that bloats a balance sheet and weighs on earnings. Equity dilutes existing shareholders.
I've already given you Cisco as a cautionary case study. How about Fed-ex? Massive moat, and along with UPS, they have an oligopoly. Rising revenues, profits, etc. etc. Why has their stock underperformed the SP? Poor return on invested capital. High Cap-ex. Eventually the market discounts the multiple.
Tesla is a car company. Unlike Apple, Tesla hasn't demonstrated their lower margin hardware sales will lead to recurring high margin high profit services.
Believe Morgan Stanley. Buy or own Tesla today at 70x 2023 estimates and tie up your owner's capital in factories and cars.
Etsy - have my eye on a bull put credit spread. It plunged on earnings release Thursday, despite a double beat. Adjusted downward guidance provoked a sell off. This scenario is prime for a pop right back up.
8/4 close 202, 8/6 close 178. By close 8/13 my money says Etsy is +178.
For those going long, I'd jump in now at 178.
Nice 165 starting point Baseman!
Didn't like Etsys earnings. Im keeping my position but not buying more. They have to prove they are more than an artsy occasional purchase.
Etsy - have my eye on a bull put credit spread. It plunged on earnings release Thursday, despite a double beat. Adjusted downward guidance provoked a sell off. This scenario is prime for a pop right back up.
8/4 close 202, 8/6 close 178. By close 8/13 my money says Etsy is +178.
For those going long, I'd jump in now at 178.
Nice 165 starting point Baseman!
Didn't like Etsys earnings. Im keeping my position but not buying more. They have to prove they are more than an artsy occasional purchase.
Etsy - have my eye on a bull put credit spread. It plunged on earnings release Thursday, despite a double beat. Adjusted downward guidance provoked a sell off. This scenario is prime for a pop right back up.
8/4 close 202, 8/6 close 178. By close 8/13 my money says Etsy is +178.
For those going long, I'd jump in now at 178.
Nice 165 starting point Baseman!
Didn't like Etsys earnings. Im keeping my position but not buying more. They have to prove they are more than an artsy occasional purchase.
Meant to only reply to greenblood, not sure how the graphic of ev sales plus reply to Baseman got all twisted up in here but it's a cool graphic anyway.
Tablet challenged.
I thought it was relevant. IIRC Tesla makes cars and looses its ass but is profitable through energy sales or some shit like that.
Meant to only reply to greenblood, not sure how the graphic of ev sales plus reply to Baseman got all twisted up in here but it's a cool graphic anyway.
Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding. Etsy started at $165. Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?
my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter of if, it’s when.
I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.
I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates 4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.
BUMP. Love me some SARK (ETF not the coach)
Lost $3,000 on Tesla Put spreads. About ready to put another one on
Comments
I get that their PE is something stupid like 250 compared to auto industry of 14. Even though Tesla is kicking ass as an EV car company, you've got to know they are much more than that.
Save your money and buy puts on Robinhood instead.
8/4 close 202, 8/6 close 178. By close 8/13 my money says Etsy is +178.
For those going long, I'd jump in now at 178.
Nice 165 starting point Baseman!
One way to look at it, sell now and take a 23% profit. Buy a put next time it memes.
A car company that currently relies on current governmental policy -- environmental credits -- for over 40 percent of net operating profit.
Paying 73x Morgan Stanley's earnings estimated '23 earnings when the current 10 year yield sits ~ 1.35%. Fed treasury buying and low inflation has inflated market multiples.
Assume the credits remain, rates remain at current levels, and Tesla meets Morgan Stanley's numbers. The growth requires massive cap-ex for factories to meet demand. Factories in China where much of Morgan Stanley's Tesla growth thesis relies on. Check out Baidu, Didi et all and see how China governmental policy is hammering - destroying - current market multiples.
Now all this massive cap ex that leads to revenue growth and profitably, awesome. Where is the free cash flow? Factories and Tesla autos. Where is the free cash flow for the shareholders for buybacks, dividends and strategic opportunities? Auto makers require capital and lots of it. Where does the capital required for growth come from? Debt or equity. Debt that bloats a balance sheet and weighs on earnings. Equity dilutes existing shareholders.
I've already given you Cisco as a cautionary case study. How about Fed-ex? Massive moat, and along with UPS, they have an oligopoly. Rising revenues, profits, etc. etc. Why has their stock underperformed the SP? Poor return on invested capital. High Cap-ex. Eventually the market discounts the multiple.
Tesla is a car company. Unlike Apple, Tesla hasn't demonstrated their lower margin hardware sales will lead to recurring high margin high profit services.
Believe Morgan Stanley. Buy or own Tesla today at 70x 2023 estimates and tie up your owner's capital in factories and cars.
I'll pass.
Lost $3,000 on Tesla Put spreads. About ready to put another one on