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What I’m buying
Baseman
Member Posts: 12,365
Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts
Long term plays along w my aforementioned
Comments
RockAuto shipped the wrong parts and their site has no CS number or email, so I'm SOL, which left me hunting down replacement hoses after NAPA had closed. Had NAPA still been open, I would have gotten hoses that didn't leak right out of the package on the first go and saved myself over a hundred dollars and three hours.
This has been my experience over and over and over again. Want quality brake components for decent price? NAPA ultra premium line pads and rotors. Want to talk to somebody behind the counter who's actually seen under the hood of a car before and not some high school kid who can't tell you shit that you can't find for yourself on their website? Go to NAPA.
That O'Reilly's and Autozone are good stock buys and NAPA is shit is today's example of the race to the bottom in full effect. You don't pump up that stock value by paying employees well, improving customer service, and selling quality products--those moves are for losers. Hire retards to sell boatloads of cheap Chinese shit: Winning.
Well run company. 9.7X return over last 10 years vs. 4.6 for SP 500.
Reasonable multiple that shouldn't get whacked too hard in a pullback/correction.
of if, it’s when.
With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.
Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.
Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.
With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.
It WILL happen, the question is when?
At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.
Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.
If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.
At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.
Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.
Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.
Tablet challenged.