What I’m buying

Baseman said:

Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts

Long term plays along w my aforementioned

Baseman said:

greenblood said:

Baseman said:

89ute said:

Baseman said:

Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts

Long term plays along w my aforementioned

What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?

my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter
of if, it’s when.

I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.

I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.

With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.

Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.

Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.

With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.

It WILL happen, the question is when?

At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.

Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.

If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.

At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.

Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.

Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.

greenblood said:

Baseman said:

greenblood said:

Baseman said:

89ute said:

Baseman said:

Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts

Long term plays along w my aforementioned

What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?

my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter
of if, it’s when.

I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.

I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.

With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.

Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.

Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.

With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.

It WILL happen, the question is when?

At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.

Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.

If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.

At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.

Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.

Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.

I'm sold

greenblood said:

Baseman said:

greenblood said:

Baseman said:

89ute said:

Baseman said:

Oreilly Auto Parts. Started at $520. Still adding.
Etsy started at $165.
Tesla $600 puts

Long term plays along w my aforementioned

What are the expiration dates on your TSLA puts?

my weekly expired. Am going to put on another shortly. Getting cheaper. Not a matter
of if, it’s when.

I hear nothing but horror stories from people that short Tesla.

I buy put spreads where I can define my risk. Big difference between a naked short. Tesla is a real company with exciting products just like Cisco was at the heart of the DotCom boom where the internet was the rage and every company needed routers and switches.

With all products, buy cycles are cyclical. When you buy a Tesla you don’t buy another one tomorrow. Cisco offered high margin services and maintenance contracts.

Everything was ducky until investors had an epiphany and decided 100+ times earnings didn’t justify the price. Cisco’s generates
4x more free cash flow today than 2000 along with a lower share count yet their market cap is half of its peak in 2000.

Anyone who bought Cisco in 2000 and still holding is still underwater 21 years later.

With that thesis in mind, I see Tesla ripe for a similar pullback.

It WILL happen, the question is when?

At the end of the day Tesla is a car company, a cool car company, but a car company.

Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes are gaining share. VW trades for around 7x free cash flow. to Tesla’s 250.

If Tesla ever grows into that multiple they’re
Going to have to sell a shit load more cars. It’s one thing to be a software company like Google or Adobe where incremental sales are almost 100% accretive to cash flow, cars not so much.

At some point investors will realize the risk is too great. Momentum traders and short squeeze is probably driving the stock right now.

Finally, rates are near an all time low 1.3% on the 10 year. Inflation is here and LOL at those predict it’s only transitory. At some point the Fed will take away the candy. At 1.3% investors have bid up multiples to stupid levels. They justify paying 100x for growth because that’s what they’d get buying a treasury. Once rates change the high multiple
Stocks will collapse.

Crowdstrike, Palantir… what have you.

I'm sold