Crypto according to Swaye
I'm keeping my money in my sock drawer. Half the people I know, most of whom know nothing about investing, have bought bitcoin in the last month. That cannot be a good thing. My 75 year old mother called yesterday to ask if she should buy Bitcoin. Put a fork in it for now.
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Just read @creepycoug for the Bitcoin Bros thread so I am responding to mine. Point was brought up about taking a small position as a hedge against the USD. I can get behind that position after thinking on it a bit. I think the train has already left the station for "winning big" on Bitcoin. But, as a hedge, with a small portion of your portfolio, not a bad play. I also like @Baseman smart play to bet the market mover, not the vehicle. That seems a reasonable play no matter what happens. If it crashes people still have to pay to get out. If it doesn't, they keep buying. Wins either way.
I stick to my guns I think the crypto market is severely juiced right now. Hedge sure. Invest in the market maker. Sure. Think you are going to get rich now at these prices with my 75 year old mother thinking of getting in? Um, unlikely.
I own and manage a fireworks stand so I know what I am talking about. -
75 year old mother
Pics? -
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Well from my old school perspective, I'm still wondering why there is any long term premium value added vs established currency AT ALL. The point is that unstable priced currencies always sell at a discount not a premium vs the bellwether standard. The reality is, eventually all transactions will be visible, the buzz will be gone, and the excess value will dissipate with all of the romance of the mist at sunrise.
Ostensibly, the long term function of these coins is limited to be the "official use" which is reported to be "currency". So lets look at the function of currency for a minute.
Briefly, the official function of "currency" is to be able to exchange any form of currency for goods and services and so ideally the number one attribute for currency has historically been stability of price so that both the buyer and seller can agree how much currency is required to complete a transaction ~ therefore wild wings in price have historically been a debbie downer with regards to establishing an exchange a Fair Market Value price between buyer and seller, which historically has always meant that the seller increases their sale price in exchange for the risk of variable price exposure of the currency being accepted. [nice compound sentence, love that]
The fact that this currency has established an unbelievable Saturn 5 style price growth pattern can only be attributed to the following factors that I can think of ~
1. Getting off the grid of observable transactions ~ providing an untraceable method of moving money for whatever purpose that you as the buyer and seller may have in mind.
A. This means to make invisible the flow of funds associated with criminal activity.
B. This also means making invisible a major part of personal wealth in substantial parts of the world in response to the Hatred and Fear of repressive government confiscation oversite of transactional flow of funds ~ think China, the USSR, and any thug state run by dictators that on a whim can step in and confiscate wealth simply because they said so like the recent Saudi sweep where they locked up the major wealth holders and detained them until they "agreed" to disperse a major portion of assets to the "crown".
C. Now also think of the US treasury and the EU, and the Japanese central bank [which means everywhere because all central banks are linked] because every government now has the wet dream turned into the actual reality of controlling the flow of currency from a tax standpoint ~ and the way they do that is by forcing all parties to report each transaction that takes place.
In practice, the function of reporting and providing 100% transparency on demand to the Treasury falls to the clearing house [in this case the exchanges]. This means that in order to operate the exchange, the exchange needs to provide the government treasury the access to records in such a way as to be verifiable by independent third party observers without the requirement to decrypt the language of expression, or in the alternative, in exchange for the formula to enable the unrestricted view of real time transactions as desired.
From my perspective, this is what is coming ~ that level of oversight will be required, or the currency will be outlawed ~ Period, end of story ~ there is no way that the central banks of the world will let this go indefinitely, their ability to tax all transactions is the glue that provides all of the power to govern, and they will defend that right to tax all transactions with their last breath. [or, more accurately, with your last breath]
2. The novelty factor of doing something ALT and new ~ buying a new form of investment.
3. The artificial construct of a presumed limitation of how much currency can ever be created ~ think of the assumed increased value of the Beanie Baby Whale when it was introduced. I affectionately remember the excitement in my son's eyes as he described the investment value of the rare Beanie Babies {dad this is an investment with long term value because they only made a limited number of these Whales].
Rest in Peace. -
It sounds gay imo
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I would not dare reach into that sock drawer.Swaye said:I know absolutely nothing about crypto or crypto markets. That said, I do know when everyone you know, who generally also know nothing about anything, are buying any investment asset because "everyone is doing it," it rarely ends well. Like Tech Stocks in 1999. There is probably a long term market for crypto, but I think these crazy breakneck bull market runs as everyone just pours money in is a loser of a strategy. Like the IPO Tech Game of the late 90's, this will all need a good crash and burn cleansing before coming back stronger in the future. The forest must burn to make itself healthier.
I'm keeping my money in my sock drawer. Half the people I know, most of whom know nothing about investing, have bought bitcoin in the last month. That cannot be a good thing. My 75 year old mother called yesterday to ask if she should buy Bitcoin. Put a fork in it for now. -
Good call.Blu82 said:
I would not dare reach into that sock drawer.Swaye said:I know absolutely nothing about crypto or crypto markets. That said, I do know when everyone you know, who generally also know nothing about anything, are buying any investment asset because "everyone is doing it," it rarely ends well. Like Tech Stocks in 1999. There is probably a long term market for crypto, but I think these crazy breakneck bull market runs as everyone just pours money in is a loser of a strategy. Like the IPO Tech Game of the late 90's, this will all need a good crash and burn cleansing before coming back stronger in the future. The forest must burn to make itself healthier.
I'm keeping my money in my sock drawer. Half the people I know, most of whom know nothing about investing, have bought bitcoin in the last month. That cannot be a good thing. My 75 year old mother called yesterday to ask if she should buy Bitcoin. Put a fork in it for now. -
Blu82 said:
I would not dare reach into that sock drawer.Swaye said:I know absolutely nothing about crypto or crypto markets. That said, I do know when everyone you know, who generally also know nothing about anything, are buying any investment asset because "everyone is doing it," it rarely ends well. Like Tech Stocks in 1999. There is probably a long term market for crypto, but I think these crazy breakneck bull market runs as everyone just pours money in is a loser of a strategy. Like the IPO Tech Game of the late 90's, this will all need a good crash and burn cleansing before coming back stronger in the future. The forest must burn to make itself healthier.
I'm keeping my money in my sock drawer. Half the people I know, most of whom know nothing about investing, have bought bitcoin in the last month. That cannot be a good thing. My 75 year old mother called yesterday to ask if she should buy Bitcoin. Put a fork in it for now.
