I bought a cedar gazebo from Costco yesterday at 5 am. They had it in their sale that started that day. Checked back a little after Noon and they were sold out. Not a HUGE ticket item, but not cheap, either. Too much funny money floating around right now. Roaring 20's all over again? What were the 1820's like, @RaceBannon ?
I bought a cedar gazebo from Costco yesterday at 5 am. They had it in their sale that started that day. Checked back a little after Noon and they were sold out. Not a HUGE ticket item, but not cheap, either. Too much funny money floating around right now. Roaring 20's all over again? What were the 1820's like, @RaceBannon ?
That Costco gazebo is amazing. Eyed the shit out of it - $1499/$1599, I don't recall. But, alas, high priced wood means no gazebo for the palatial lodge.
Poors gonna poor.
Need to conserve cash for the down on a third home.
Not easy having to make those kind of financial decisions. It's a sweet gazebo but Mrs. PT v.20 wants something in warmer climes NOW.
Getting slaughtered on a construction job right now. Lumber prices are cray cray.
Inflation isn't causing lumber price increases. It's a combination of Canadian lumber tariffs, increased logging restrictions, record increase in new home construction, and people using stimulus money on home improvements instead of vacations. Demand >>> Supply
Ummmm...that kinda is the definition of inflation. I guess you can argue it’s unique to lumber because of specific reasons but I’d argue if you’ve gone to the grocery store you’ve seen the same thing. Hell, I’d argue with oil demand down I’m still trying to figure out why WTI is 20% higher today than it was for most of 2019...
I finally got you now @HoustonHusky ... forgive me, I'm slow.
Your point is that it's inflation because all of the demand is, to put it succintly, "fake" demand because of all the monopoly money. I get that; I hear you. That makes some sense.
It would be a close cousin to the worst kind of inflation, where for fundamental reasons your currency is worth a fraction of what it was ... we all like to use Post WWI Germany as the base case for that scenario. But if you're printing your way to a good economy, you have the same problem in that the economic activity is not based or predicated upon incremental value creation in said economy.
Getting slaughtered on a construction job right now. Lumber prices are cray cray.
Inflation isn't causing lumber price increases. It's a combination of Canadian lumber tariffs, increased logging restrictions, record increase in new home construction, and people using stimulus money on home improvements instead of vacations. Demand >>> Supply
Ummmm...that kinda is the definition of inflation. I guess you can argue it’s unique to lumber because of specific reasons but I’d argue if you’ve gone to the grocery store you’ve seen the same thing. Hell, I’d argue with oil demand down I’m still trying to figure out why WTI is 20% higher today than it was for most of 2019...
I finally got you now @HoustonHusky ... forgive me, I'm slow.
Your point is that it's inflation because all of the demand is, to put it succintly, "fake" demand because of all the monopoly money. I get that; I hear you. That makes some sense.
It would be a close cousin to the worst kind of inflation, where for fundamental reasons your currency is worth a fraction of what it was ... we all like to use Post WWI Germany as the base case for that scenario. But if you're printing your way to a good economy, you have the same problem in that the economic activity is not based or predicated upon incremental value creation in said economy.
Is that more or less accurate Economis bros?
Yup. I discount the argument of 'sure lumber/housing is up because people aren't going on vacation and spending it on that' as reinforcing my point. Print money and give it to people and they have it and spend it, and therefore demand goes up artificially more than it should. And its not like the airlines are on life support giving away free tickets to balance it out...was looking at flights for this summer and they are as/more expensive as they were last year. Airlines may be flying less total flights, but its not like its costing the consumer 50% less to get around. Get enough free govt cheese and they can/were able to sustain without the fire sale normally involved with a structural change in behavior. Booking a place in Florida this summer wasn't easy...most everything is booked and it not any cheaper than it was last year...actually prices have gone up.
For all the stuff I've seen that has gone up (oil/gasoline, housing, lumber, food, contractor work, etc) I haven't seen the corollary stuff that has gone down to supposedly balance it out...
Getting slaughtered on a construction job right now. Lumber prices are cray cray.
Inflation isn't causing lumber price increases. It's a combination of Canadian lumber tariffs, increased logging restrictions, record increase in new home construction, and people using stimulus money on home improvements instead of vacations. Demand >>> Supply
Ummmm...that kinda is the definition of inflation. I guess you can argue it’s unique to lumber because of specific reasons but I’d argue if you’ve gone to the grocery store you’ve seen the same thing. Hell, I’d argue with oil demand down I’m still trying to figure out why WTI is 20% higher today than it was for most of 2019...
I finally got you now @HoustonHusky ... forgive me, I'm slow.
Your point is that it's inflation because all of the demand is, to put it succintly, "fake" demand because of all the monopoly money. I get that; I hear you. That makes some sense.
It would be a close cousin to the worst kind of inflation, where for fundamental reasons your currency is worth a fraction of what it was ... we all like to use Post WWI Germany as the base case for that scenario. But if you're printing your way to a good economy, you have the same problem in that the economic activity is not based or predicated upon incremental value creation in said economy.
Is that more or less accurate Economis bros?
Yup. I discount the argument of 'sure lumber/housing is up because people aren't going on vacation and spending it on that' as reinforcing my point. Print money and give it to people and they have it and spend it, and therefore demand goes up artificially more than it should. And its not like the airlines are on life support giving away free tickets to balance it out...was looking at flights for this summer and they are as/more expensive as they were last year. Airlines may be flying less total flights, but its not like its costing the consumer 50% less to get around. Get enough free govt cheese and they can/were able to sustain without the fire sale normally involved with a structural change in behavior. Booking a place in Florida this summer wasn't easy...most everything is booked and it not any cheaper than it was last year...actually prices have gone up.
For all the stuff I've seen that has gone up (oil/gasoline, housing, lumber, food, contractor work, etc) I haven't seen the corollary stuff that has gone down to supposedly balance it out...
Flights are absolutely not as/more expensive than they were pre covid
Getting slaughtered on a construction job right now. Lumber prices are cray cray.
Inflation isn't causing lumber price increases. It's a combination of Canadian lumber tariffs, increased logging restrictions, record increase in new home construction, and people using stimulus money on home improvements instead of vacations. Demand >>> Supply
Ummmm...that kinda is the definition of inflation. I guess you can argue it’s unique to lumber because of specific reasons but I’d argue if you’ve gone to the grocery store you’ve seen the same thing. Hell, I’d argue with oil demand down I’m still trying to figure out why WTI is 20% higher today than it was for most of 2019...
I finally got you now @HoustonHusky ... forgive me, I'm slow.
Your point is that it's inflation because all of the demand is, to put it succintly, "fake" demand because of all the monopoly money. I get that; I hear you. That makes some sense.
It would be a close cousin to the worst kind of inflation, where for fundamental reasons your currency is worth a fraction of what it was ... we all like to use Post WWI Germany as the base case for that scenario. But if you're printing your way to a good economy, you have the same problem in that the economic activity is not based or predicated upon incremental value creation in said economy.
Is that more or less accurate Economis bros?
Yup. I discount the argument of 'sure lumber/housing is up because people aren't going on vacation and spending it on that' as reinforcing my point. Print money and give it to people and they have it and spend it, and therefore demand goes up artificially more than it should. And its not like the airlines are on life support giving away free tickets to balance it out...was looking at flights for this summer and they are as/more expensive as they were last year. Airlines may be flying less total flights, but its not like its costing the consumer 50% less to get around. Get enough free govt cheese and they can/were able to sustain without the fire sale normally involved with a structural change in behavior. Booking a place in Florida this summer wasn't easy...most everything is booked and it not any cheaper than it was last year...actually prices have gone up.
For all the stuff I've seen that has gone up (oil/gasoline, housing, lumber, food, contractor work, etc) I haven't seen the corollary stuff that has gone down to supposedly balance it out...
Flights are absolutely not as/more expensive than they were pre covid
I agree that they aren't nutty like lumber/oil and some of the other things and on average are still probably down some but they aren't still tanked like at least I would have expected. Having just looked at them I was shocked in that I assumed I would have gotten some sweet deals but they looked like they did before Covid...admittedly its summer vacation pricing but still kinda surprised me. Oil being higher is a bit of it but still surprised me...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/20/say-goodbye-to-30-plane-tickets-the-era-of-dirt-cheap-flights-is-ending.html The cheapest domestic leisure airfares, which include those promotional fares that airlines send to your inbox, were $59.48 as of March 15, still 26% lower than a similar week in 2019 but up more than 6% on the week, according to Harrell Associates, a firm that tracks airfares. Average leisure fares were nearly $187, up close to 5% on the week and close to 9% higher than a similar point in 2019.
I have flown a lot during COVID. I'd say they are surprisingly consistent with pre-pandemic prices. So I agree with the both of you in a sense. I agree with @HoustonHusky that I would expect some DEALS to get people in seats again, and with @ntxduck that they're not through the roof.
They're expensive relative to what I thought they'd be given everything.
I have flown a lot during COVID. I'd say they are surprisingly consistent with pre-pandemic prices. So I agree with the both of you in a sense. I agree with @HoustonHusky that I would expect some DEALS to get people in seats again, and with @ntxduck that they're not through the roof.
They're expensive relative to what I thought they'd be given everything.
Last October I flew first class to Reno for $139. I thought that was a pretty good deal.
I have flown a lot during COVID. I'd say they are surprisingly consistent with pre-pandemic prices. So I agree with the both of you in a sense. I agree with @HoustonHusky that I would expect some DEALS to get people in seats again, and with @ntxduck that they're not through the roof.
They're expensive relative to what I thought they'd be given everything.
Depends on where you're going. Recreation destinations (Cabo, Cancun, etc.) are starting to go up. Just saw an interview with the UAL CEO and he says flights are near 100% capacity to those kinds of spots. Says business travel is still way off.
Which means if you want to escape shrinkage, it's going to cost more.
Mrs. Throbber v2.0 just booked a few flights for us and still was able to snag first class at a rate she felt comfortable paying. She's a tight ass tightwad so prices haven't gone through the roof yet relative to her index.
I have flown a lot during COVID. I'd say they are surprisingly consistent with pre-pandemic prices. So I agree with the both of you in a sense. I agree with @HoustonHusky that I would expect some DEALS to get people in seats again, and with @ntxduck that they're not through the roof.
They're expensive relative to what I thought they'd be given everything.
Are there just less flights being offered as well which is propping the prices up? With the large variable cost of fuel, airport fees, wear and tear and staff it seems there is a minimum price required to justify wheels up.
I’d wager there is some collusion happening between the carriers as well to some extent.
I think the deals idea that you are speaking of are more in the gym/golf course business model where there is essentially 0 variable cost per revenue unit and only fixed costs to overcome. Variable costs only arise in that mode when a tipping point of high demand is there.
I have flown a lot during COVID. I'd say they are surprisingly consistent with pre-pandemic prices. So I agree with the both of you in a sense. I agree with @HoustonHusky that I would expect some DEALS to get people in seats again, and with @ntxduck that they're not through the roof.
They're expensive relative to what I thought they'd be given everything.
Are there just less flights being offered as well which is propping the prices up? With the large variable cost of fuel, airport fees, wear and tear and staff it seems there is a minimum price required to justify wheels up.
I’d wager there is some collusion happening between the carriers as well to some extent.
I think the deals idea that you are speaking of are more in the gym/golf course business model where there is essentially 0 variable cost per revenue unit and only fixed costs to overcome. Variable costs only arise in that mode when a tipping point of high demand is there.
Completely this...flew 2 weeks ago for work. Use to be 6 direct flights a day...now down to 2.
Airlines network wide are anywhere between 20 and 50% smaller compared to 2019. Some routes are the same, others significantly cut back. International travel is mostly a disaster other than Mexico and the Caribbean.
Sadly the US is in better shape than the rest of the world, as Canada continues to try to kill its airlines (90% smaller than 2019) as does Europe.
In terms of inflation, while the pricing may appear relatively similar (I'm pretty sure across all travelers it is down, with the reduction of business travel, but not as significantly since the airlines shrunk as well), what has happened is that significantly more utility is provided for each ticket purchase. Non-changeable fares were practically eliminated and now for that same $400 ticket in 2019 which if you had to change plans (for $200) it is now completely free to change. So the value provided by that $400 ticket is now higher, or consider the total you paid in the past of tickets plus change fees and compare that to today. This is not true for Southwest but for the other major airlines it absolutely is.
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Not easy having to make those kind of financial decisions. It's a sweet gazebo but Mrs. PT v.20 wants something in warmer climes NOW.
Your point is that it's inflation because all of the demand is, to put it succintly, "fake" demand because of all the monopoly money. I get that; I hear you. That makes some sense.
It would be a close cousin to the worst kind of inflation, where for fundamental reasons your currency is worth a fraction of what it was ... we all like to use Post WWI Germany as the base case for that scenario. But if you're printing your way to a good economy, you have the same problem in that the economic activity is not based or predicated upon incremental value creation in said economy.
Is that more or less accurate Economis bros?
For all the stuff I've seen that has gone up (oil/gasoline, housing, lumber, food, contractor work, etc) I haven't seen the corollary stuff that has gone down to supposedly balance it out...
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/20/say-goodbye-to-30-plane-tickets-the-era-of-dirt-cheap-flights-is-ending.html
The cheapest domestic leisure airfares, which include those promotional fares that airlines send to your inbox, were $59.48 as of March 15, still 26% lower than a similar week in 2019 but up more than 6% on the week, according to Harrell Associates, a firm that tracks airfares. Average leisure fares were nearly $187, up close to 5% on the week and close to 9% higher than a similar point in 2019.
They're expensive relative to what I thought they'd be given everything.
Which means if you want to escape shrinkage, it's going to cost more.
Mrs. Throbber v2.0 just booked a few flights for us and still was able to snag first class at a rate she felt comfortable paying. She's a
tight asstightwad so prices haven't gone through the roof yet relative to her index.I’d wager there is some collusion happening between the carriers as well to some extent.
I think the deals idea that you are speaking of are more in the gym/golf course business model where there is essentially 0 variable cost per revenue unit and only fixed costs to overcome. Variable costs only arise in that mode when a tipping point of high demand is there.
Sadly the US is in better shape than the rest of the world, as Canada continues to try to kill its airlines (90% smaller than 2019) as does Europe.
In terms of inflation, while the pricing may appear relatively similar (I'm pretty sure across all travelers it is down, with the reduction of business travel, but not as significantly since the airlines shrunk as well), what has happened is that significantly more utility is provided for each ticket purchase. Non-changeable fares were practically eliminated and now for that same $400 ticket in 2019 which if you had to change plans (for $200) it is now completely free to change. So the value provided by that $400 ticket is now higher, or consider the total you paid in the past of tickets plus change fees and compare that to today. This is not true for Southwest but for the other major airlines it absolutely is.