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Re-opening trade for leisure stocks: Sell news, or buy as demand explodes?

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  • GDS
    GDS Member Posts: 1,470
    Fishpo31 said:

    As far as cruise lines go, my wife works for one. Much panic early (obviously), her company re-configured, sold off a couple of older ships, reduced work force, and held steady. People were then, and are now continuing to book cruises. My mantra to her was, if she could ride it out, it will boom when the all-clear is given...as it gets closer, this is what seems to be happening. There is talk that they are trying to do something with the Jones Act, and if they do, game on...

    *If any of you work for the SEC (SEC! SEC!), this is a burner account, and I deny all of it

    I actually thought pre covid the chorus had finally become loud enough the Jones act was going to get gutted. With so much focus now on maintaining critical supply chain links home grown I can’t see any significant changes to the Jones act in a generation. I’d be leery of banking on that as a rationalization to jump in...
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  • godawgst
    godawgst Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,618 Swaye's Wigwam
    Baseman said:

    The pandemic has changed my views permanently going forward. Back in 2019 I thought Southwest and Delta were the shizz. Delta was killing it and Southwest was doing what Southwest does. Berkshire owned significant stakes of each and more than a few of the credible pundits had Berkshire acquiring Southwest as they had BNSF.

    Covid hit and the rest is history. I took a huge loss but was fortunate to make it all back and some on Banks.

    I will never buy another airline, cruise, or hotel stock again. Too capital intensive and vulnerable to Force Majure.

    I will do ok with American Airlines, but had I thrown a dart at any other company in the S and P or just SPY itself, I would be 3x ahead of AAL.

    Buffett didn't follow his own rules of never buying a Airline and the saying how do you become a millionaire? Start with a billion and get into commercial aviation, and for one of the only times I can every remember sold at the bottom for the group last April iirc.

    I learned the lesson as well. Unless the Airline is Southwest or Alaska (both do what they do and stay in the lane extremely well) which you Can buy when there is overall market blood in the streets, stay as far away from them as you can.

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  • godawgst
    godawgst Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,618 Swaye's Wigwam
    Anyone else see where Florida was/is going to sue the CDC on behalf of the Cruise Ships so they can start sailing again?

    Becareful what you wish for......

    Either a) the CDC will back down and give them a target date they can sail again with all the necessary parameters and safety measures in place OR

    b) they (or someone in the Govt) remind everyone they aren't US based companies and decide to play hardball which they can b/c they have no skin in the game.
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  • whlinder
    whlinder Member Posts: 5,420
    Related to the airline discussion:
    https://hardcorehusky.com/discussion/83413/airlines-too-big-to-fail#latest

    If I were to actually buy an airline stock (I won't directly), it would probably be a start up which isn't burdened with debt for 20 years due to this crisis. Not that start ups trade publicly. Breeze Airlines will be intriguing... as will Boom Supersonic as a plane manufacturer.
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,423
    Baseman said:

    The pandemic has changed my views permanently going forward. Back in 2019 I thought Southwest and Delta were the shizz. Delta was killing it and Southwest was doing what Southwest does. Berkshire owned significant stakes of each and more than a few of the credible pundits had Berkshire acquiring Southwest as they had BNSF.

    Covid hit and the rest is history. I took a huge loss but was fortunate to make it all back and some on Banks.

    I will never buy another airline, cruise, or hotel stock again. Too capital intensive and vulnerable to Force Majure.

    Agreed. Although all three are due for a helluva rally here in the next year.

    Delta is opening the middle seats again starting 5/1.
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,423
    godawgst said:

    Anyone else see where Florida was/is going to sue the CDC on behalf of the Cruise Ships so they can start sailing again?

    Becareful what you wish for......

    Either a) the CDC will back down and give them a target date they can sail again with all the necessary parameters and safety measures in place OR

    b) they (or someone in the Govt) remind everyone they aren't US based companies and decide to play hardball which they can b/c they have no skin in the game.

    Except with b), I assume a good % of their market is in the US, so they have to port here. I don’t know maritime jurisdiction law, which is complex, but I’m pretty sure when you tie up you’re in a US waterway and thus subject to the Fed.
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  • Baseman
    Baseman Member Posts: 12,382
    creepycoug said:

    Baseman said:

    The pandemic has changed my views permanently going forward. Back in 2019 I thought Southwest and Delta were the shizz. Delta was killing it and Southwest was doing what Southwest does. Berkshire owned significant stakes of each and more than a few of the credible pundits had Berkshire acquiring Southwest as they had BNSF.

    Covid hit and the rest is history. I took a huge loss but was fortunate to make it all back and some on Banks.

    I will never buy another airline, cruise, or hotel stock again. Too capital intensive and vulnerable to Force Majure.

    Agreed. Although all three are due for a helluva rally here in the next year.

    Delta is opening the middle seats again starting 5/1.
    I hear yee. After Covid and 9/11, I'll let others make their fortunes in airlines.
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  • godawgst
    godawgst Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,618 Swaye's Wigwam
    creepycoug said:

    godawgst said:

    Anyone else see where Florida was/is going to sue the CDC on behalf of the Cruise Ships so they can start sailing again?

    Becareful what you wish for......

    Either a) the CDC will back down and give them a target date they can sail again with all the necessary parameters and safety measures in place OR

    b) they (or someone in the Govt) remind everyone they aren't US based companies and decide to play hardball which they can b/c they have no skin in the game.

    Except with b), I assume a good % of their market is in the US, so they have to port here. I don’t know maritime jurisdiction law, which is complex, but I’m pretty sure when you tie up you’re in a US waterway and thus subject to the Fed.
    I was trying to say the CDC could string them out far longer b4 allowing them to cruise w/ passengers out of personal spite or anger.
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,423
    godawgst said:

    creepycoug said:

    godawgst said:

    Anyone else see where Florida was/is going to sue the CDC on behalf of the Cruise Ships so they can start sailing again?

    Becareful what you wish for......

    Either a) the CDC will back down and give them a target date they can sail again with all the necessary parameters and safety measures in place OR

    b) they (or someone in the Govt) remind everyone they aren't US based companies and decide to play hardball which they can b/c they have no skin in the game.

    Except with b), I assume a good % of their market is in the US, so they have to port here. I don’t know maritime jurisdiction law, which is complex, but I’m pretty sure when you tie up you’re in a US waterway and thus subject to the Fed.
    I was trying to say the CDC could string them out far longer b4 allowing them to cruise w/ passengers out of personal spite or anger.
    Ah, got it. Thought you meant the companies could take their boats and go elsewhere.
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  • godawgst
    godawgst Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,618 Swaye's Wigwam
    creepycoug said:

    godawgst said:

    creepycoug said:

    godawgst said:

    Anyone else see where Florida was/is going to sue the CDC on behalf of the Cruise Ships so they can start sailing again?

    Becareful what you wish for......

    Either a) the CDC will back down and give them a target date they can sail again with all the necessary parameters and safety measures in place OR

    b) they (or someone in the Govt) remind everyone they aren't US based companies and decide to play hardball which they can b/c they have no skin in the game.

    Except with b), I assume a good % of their market is in the US, so they have to port here. I don’t know maritime jurisdiction law, which is complex, but I’m pretty sure when you tie up you’re in a US waterway and thus subject to the Fed.
    I was trying to say the CDC could string them out far longer b4 allowing them to cruise w/ passengers out of personal spite or anger.
    Ah, got it. Thought you meant the companies could take their boats and go elsewhere.
    Either Norwegian or Royal is going to start having ships depart out of Puerto Rico in July iirc, but your right to survive they have be able to depart out of the US.

    Cruise lines are correct in that they've put together what I would call very comprehensive plans to be able to start sailing again (all passengers/crew vaccinated, 60% occ levels mx etc) but one of the CEO's last Monday said the CDC would not even return his calls as to a timeframe to lift the moratorium.

    Winners and Losers.....



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