Re-opening trade for leisure stocks: Sell news, or buy as demand explodes?

godawgst

Once the govt/CDC gives the all clear sign and travel stocks open back up to whatever the new normal is, will that be the day to buy those stocks or is it allready baked into the prices of the airlines, cruise, and hotel stocks?

greenblood

I think it’s baked. Right now I’m taking advantage of the volatility in general. Even little nothing burgers are moving high priced stocks 10-15%

EwaDawg

godawgst said:

Once the govt/CDC gives the all clear sign and travel stocks open back up to whatever the new normal is, will that be the day to buy those stocks or is it allready baked into the prices of the airlines, cruise, and hotel stocks?

I think the best window to buy was from right after the election up to the inauguration. Which was about the time vaccines were becoming available.

I personally cycled through HST, HA and LUV but still holding a little bit of Southwest.

Maybe take a flier on a specific airline (LUV, ALK or HA) . Business travel may never recover with Zoom, etc. There could be a second wave (surge in stock prices).

Look at MAR (as example, not to purchase). It is basically back to pre-pandemic price levels and leisure travel numbers are no where near where they were a little over a year ago.

Just bought some DIS although I might be a bit late to the party. Looked at other theme park operators and simply wasn't impressed with the offerings. I need to relook here. Its about the only travel related segment I could get excited about.

Cruise lines are interesting. I think they may lag the rest of the industry as far as the bounce back of the stock prices. I considered buying them when I started taking profits on the airlines and hotel stocks. But, I am not sure anyone but a full blooded science denier will want to cram 4,000 people into a the confined spaces of a cruise ship any time soon. But not everyone will have to if you want to to make some money here.

TLDR, I think the stock price bounce back is pretty much already baked in. But with the market hitting all time highs some travel stocks (or segments) may have a ways to go.

creepycoug

EwaDawg said:

godawgst said:

Once the govt/CDC gives the all clear sign and travel stocks open back up to whatever the new normal is, will that be the day to buy those stocks or is it allready baked into the prices of the airlines, cruise, and hotel stocks?

I think the best window to buy was from right after the election up to the inauguration. Which was about the time vaccines were becoming available.

I personally cycled through HST, HA and LUV but still holding a little bit of Southwest.

Maybe take a flier on a specific airline (LUV, ALK or HA) . Business travel may never recover with Zoom, etc. There could be a second wave (surge in stock prices).

Look at MAR (as example, not to purchase). It is basically back to pre-pandemic price levels and leisure travel numbers are no where near where they were a little over a year ago.

Just bought some DIS although I might be a bit late to the party. Looked at other theme park operators and simply wasn't impressed with the offerings. I need to relook here. Its about the only travel related segment I could get excited about.

Cruise lines are interesting. I think they may lag the rest of the industry as far as the bounce back of the stock prices. I considered buying them when I started taking profits on the airlines and hotel stocks. But, I am not sure anyone but a full blooded science denier will want to cram 4,000 people into a the confined spaces of a cruise ship any time soon. But not everyone will have to if you want to to make some money here.

TLDR, I think the stock price bounce back is pretty much already baked in. But with the market hitting all time highs some travel stocks (or segments) may have a ways to go.

I don't watch cruise lines because I'll never be interested in them because it's such a delicate industry and always seems susceptible to industry-wide shit shows. That said, I'd expect they got the most beat up. One of the first to shut-down and, unlike the airlines, haven't been allowed to even hobble along. Those losses must be massive.

EwaDawg

The Creepy One said




"I don't watch cruise lines because I'll never be interested in them because it's such a delicate industry and always seems susceptible to industry-wide shit shows. That said, I'd expect they got the most beat up. One of the first to shut-down and, unlike the airlines, haven't been allowed to even hobble along. Those losses must be massive."

Who knows if they will even survive? Can't imagine even thinking about owning them in the next 18 months. And not even then if all of the airlines and hotels haven't fully recovered.

Baseman

Southwest is above pre-pandemic levels and the company sold shares diluting those who owned and held the stock before Covid

If that's not the definition of irrational exuberance, I don't know what is.

The reopening trade is a crowded trade.

EwaDawg

Baseman said:

Southwest is above pre-pandemic levels and the company sold shares diluting those who owned and held the stock before Covid

If that's not the definition of irrational exuberance, I don't know what is.

The reopening trade is a crowded trade.

The reopening trade wasn't so crowded four months ago when I bought HA/HST/LUV.

LUV lost 5.44 per share while DAL lost 19.49 per share and DAL has more outstanding shares. Not to be outdone, UAL lost 25.30 per share. And, in my simple mind, when you buy a stock you are essentially buying a share of the company's profit or loss (and assets and liabilities).

In the segment, most paid analysts think LUV is the best buy IF you want to buy the reopening at this late date.

I happen to be selling.

I like your takes. They make me (re)think. Please continue to poast here.

EwaDawg

Wow. Car rental prices approaching $ 500 / day in some places (including Hawaii) as fleets sold excess cars last year.

Unfortunately the only US publicly traded rent a car company is CAR (avis) and it is not impressive. It could be worth a look but I don't like it.

HTZ recently filed for bankruptcy so both HTZ and Enterprise (privately held) are not publicly traded.

Interesting, but in a cruise line manner. High risk, low reward?

Baseman

EwaDawg said:

Wow. Car rental prices approaching $ 500 / day in some places (including Hawaii) as fleets sold excess cars last year.

Unfortunately the only US publicly traded rent a car company is CAR (avis) and it is not impressive. It could be worth a look but I don't like it.

HTZ recently filed for bankruptcy so both HTZ and Enterprise (privately held) are not publicly traded.

Interesting, but in a cruise line manner. High risk, low reward?

Often times the best investments are the ones you don't make.

Fishpo31

As far as cruise lines go, my wife works for one. Much panic early (obviously), her company re-configured, sold off a couple of older ships, reduced work force, and held steady. People were then, and are now continuing to book cruises. My mantra to her was, if she could ride it out, it will boom when the all-clear is given...as it gets closer, this is what seems to be happening. There is talk that they are trying to do something with the Jones Act, and if they do, game on...

*If any of you work for the SEC (SEC! SEC!), this is a burner account, and I deny all of it

Baseman

The pandemic has changed my views permanently going forward. Back in 2019 I thought Southwest and Delta were the shizz. Delta was killing it and Southwest was doing what Southwest does. Berkshire owned significant stakes of each and more than a few of the credible pundits had Berkshire acquiring Southwest as they had BNSF.

Covid hit and the rest is history. I took a huge loss but was fortunate to make it all back and some on Banks.

I will never buy another airline, cruise, or hotel stock again. Too capital intensive and vulnerable to Force Majure.

GDS

Fishpo31 said:

As far as cruise lines go, my wife works for one. Much panic early (obviously), her company re-configured, sold off a couple of older ships, reduced work force, and held steady. People were then, and are now continuing to book cruises. My mantra to her was, if she could ride it out, it will boom when the all-clear is given...as it gets closer, this is what seems to be happening. There is talk that they are trying to do something with the Jones Act, and if they do, game on...

*If any of you work for the SEC (SEC! SEC!), this is a burner account, and I deny all of it

I actually thought pre covid the chorus had finally become loud enough the Jones act was going to get gutted. With so much focus now on maintaining critical supply chain links home grown I can’t see any significant changes to the Jones act in a generation. I’d be leery of banking on that as a rationalization to jump in...

godawgst

Baseman said:

The pandemic has changed my views permanently going forward. Back in 2019 I thought Southwest and Delta were the shizz. Delta was killing it and Southwest was doing what Southwest does. Berkshire owned significant stakes of each and more than a few of the credible pundits had Berkshire acquiring Southwest as they had BNSF.

Covid hit and the rest is history. I took a huge loss but was fortunate to make it all back and some on Banks.

I will never buy another airline, cruise, or hotel stock again. Too capital intensive and vulnerable to Force Majure.

I will do ok with American Airlines, but had I thrown a dart at any other company in the S and P or just SPY itself, I would be 3x ahead of AAL.

Buffett didn't follow his own rules of never buying a Airline and the saying how do you become a millionaire? Start with a billion and get into commercial aviation, and for one of the only times I can every remember sold at the bottom for the group last April iirc.

I learned the lesson as well. Unless the Airline is Southwest or Alaska (both do what they do and stay in the lane extremely well) which you Can buy when there is overall market blood in the streets, stay as far away from them as you can.

godawgst

Anyone else see where Florida was/is going to sue the CDC on behalf of the Cruise Ships so they can start sailing again?

Becareful what you wish for......

Either a) the CDC will back down and give them a target date they can sail again with all the necessary parameters and safety measures in place OR

b) they (or someone in the Govt) remind everyone they aren't US based companies and decide to play hardball which they can b/c they have no skin in the game.

whlinder

Related to the airline discussion:
https://hardcorehusky.com/discussion/83413/airlines-too-big-to-fail#latest

If I were to actually buy an airline stock (I won't directly), it would probably be a start up which isn't burdened with debt for 20 years due to this crisis. Not that start ups trade publicly. Breeze Airlines will be intriguing... as will Boom Supersonic as a plane manufacturer.

creepycoug

Baseman said:

The pandemic has changed my views permanently going forward. Back in 2019 I thought Southwest and Delta were the shizz. Delta was killing it and Southwest was doing what Southwest does. Berkshire owned significant stakes of each and more than a few of the credible pundits had Berkshire acquiring Southwest as they had BNSF.

Covid hit and the rest is history. I took a huge loss but was fortunate to make it all back and some on Banks.

I will never buy another airline, cruise, or hotel stock again. Too capital intensive and vulnerable to Force Majure.

Agreed. Although all three are due for a helluva rally here in the next year.

Delta is opening the middle seats again starting 5/1.

creepycoug

godawgst said:

Anyone else see where Florida was/is going to sue the CDC on behalf of the Cruise Ships so they can start sailing again?

Becareful what you wish for......

Either a) the CDC will back down and give them a target date they can sail again with all the necessary parameters and safety measures in place OR

b) they (or someone in the Govt) remind everyone they aren't US based companies and decide to play hardball which they can b/c they have no skin in the game.

Except with b), I assume a good % of their market is in the US, so they have to port here. I don’t know maritime jurisdiction law, which is complex, but I’m pretty sure when you tie up you’re in a US waterway and thus subject to the Fed.

Baseman

creepycoug said:

Baseman said:

The pandemic has changed my views permanently going forward. Back in 2019 I thought Southwest and Delta were the shizz. Delta was killing it and Southwest was doing what Southwest does. Berkshire owned significant stakes of each and more than a few of the credible pundits had Berkshire acquiring Southwest as they had BNSF.

Covid hit and the rest is history. I took a huge loss but was fortunate to make it all back and some on Banks.

I will never buy another airline, cruise, or hotel stock again. Too capital intensive and vulnerable to Force Majure.

Agreed. Although all three are due for a helluva rally here in the next year.

Delta is opening the middle seats again starting 5/1.

I hear yee. After Covid and 9/11, I'll let others make their fortunes in airlines.

godawgst

creepycoug said:

godawgst said:

Anyone else see where Florida was/is going to sue the CDC on behalf of the Cruise Ships so they can start sailing again?

Becareful what you wish for......

Either a) the CDC will back down and give them a target date they can sail again with all the necessary parameters and safety measures in place OR

b) they (or someone in the Govt) remind everyone they aren't US based companies and decide to play hardball which they can b/c they have no skin in the game.

Except with b), I assume a good % of their market is in the US, so they have to port here. I don’t know maritime jurisdiction law, which is complex, but I’m pretty sure when you tie up you’re in a US waterway and thus subject to the Fed.

I was trying to say the CDC could string them out far longer b4 allowing them to cruise w/ passengers out of personal spite or anger.

creepycoug

godawgst said:

creepycoug said:

godawgst said:

Anyone else see where Florida was/is going to sue the CDC on behalf of the Cruise Ships so they can start sailing again?

Becareful what you wish for......

Either a) the CDC will back down and give them a target date they can sail again with all the necessary parameters and safety measures in place OR

b) they (or someone in the Govt) remind everyone they aren't US based companies and decide to play hardball which they can b/c they have no skin in the game.

Except with b), I assume a good % of their market is in the US, so they have to port here. I don’t know maritime jurisdiction law, which is complex, but I’m pretty sure when you tie up you’re in a US waterway and thus subject to the Fed.

I was trying to say the CDC could string them out far longer b4 allowing them to cruise w/ passengers out of personal spite or anger.

Ah, got it. Thought you meant the companies could take their boats and go elsewhere.

godawgst

creepycoug said:

godawgst said:

creepycoug said:

godawgst said:

Anyone else see where Florida was/is going to sue the CDC on behalf of the Cruise Ships so they can start sailing again?

Becareful what you wish for......

Either a) the CDC will back down and give them a target date they can sail again with all the necessary parameters and safety measures in place OR

b) they (or someone in the Govt) remind everyone they aren't US based companies and decide to play hardball which they can b/c they have no skin in the game.

Except with b), I assume a good % of their market is in the US, so they have to port here. I don’t know maritime jurisdiction law, which is complex, but I’m pretty sure when you tie up you’re in a US waterway and thus subject to the Fed.

I was trying to say the CDC could string them out far longer b4 allowing them to cruise w/ passengers out of personal spite or anger.

Ah, got it. Thought you meant the companies could take their boats and go elsewhere.

Either Norwegian or Royal is going to start having ships depart out of Puerto Rico in July iirc, but your right to survive they have be able to depart out of the US.

Cruise lines are correct in that they've put together what I would call very comprehensive plans to be able to start sailing again (all passengers/crew vaccinated, 60% occ levels mx etc) but one of the CEO's last Monday said the CDC would not even return his calls as to a timeframe to lift the moratorium.

Winners and Losers.....