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Re-opening trade for leisure stocks: Sell news, or buy as demand explodes?
godawgst
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,618 
Once the govt/CDC gives the all clear sign and travel stocks open back up to whatever the new normal is, will that be the day to buy those stocks or is it allready baked into the prices of the airlines, cruise, and hotel stocks?
Comments
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I think it’s baked. Right now I’m taking advantage of the volatility in general. Even little nothing burgers are moving high priced stocks 10-15%
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I think the best window to buy was from right after the election up to the inauguration. Which was about the time vaccines were becoming available.godawgst said:
Once the govt/CDC gives the all clear sign and travel stocks open back up to whatever the new normal is, will that be the day to buy those stocks or is it allready baked into the prices of the airlines, cruise, and hotel stocks?
I personally cycled through HST, HA and LUV but still holding a little bit of Southwest.
Maybe take a flier on a specific airline (LUV, ALK or HA) . Business travel may never recover with Zoom, etc. There could be a second wave (surge in stock prices).
Look at MAR (as example, not to purchase). It is basically back to pre-pandemic price levels and leisure travel numbers are no where near where they were a little over a year ago.
Just bought some DIS although I might be a bit late to the party. Looked at other theme park operators and simply wasn't impressed with the offerings. I need to relook here. Its about the only travel related segment I could get excited about.
Cruise lines are interesting. I think they may lag the rest of the industry as far as the bounce back of the stock prices. I considered buying them when I started taking profits on the airlines and hotel stocks. But, I am not sure anyone but a full blooded science denier will want to cram 4,000 people into a the confined spaces of a cruise ship any time soon. But not everyone will have to if you want to to make some money here.
TLDR, I think the stock price bounce back is pretty much already baked in. But with the market hitting all time highs some travel stocks (or segments) may have a ways to go.
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I don't watch cruise lines because I'll never be interested in them because it's such a delicate industry and always seems susceptible to industry-wide shit shows. That said, I'd expect they got the most beat up. One of the first to shut-down and, unlike the airlines, haven't been allowed to even hobble along. Those losses must be massive.EwaDawg said:
I think the best window to buy was from right after the election up to the inauguration. Which was about the time vaccines were becoming available.godawgst said:
Once the govt/CDC gives the all clear sign and travel stocks open back up to whatever the new normal is, will that be the day to buy those stocks or is it allready baked into the prices of the airlines, cruise, and hotel stocks?
I personally cycled through HST, HA and LUV but still holding a little bit of Southwest.
Maybe take a flier on a specific airline (LUV, ALK or HA) . Business travel may never recover with Zoom, etc. There could be a second wave (surge in stock prices).
Look at MAR (as example, not to purchase). It is basically back to pre-pandemic price levels and leisure travel numbers are no where near where they were a little over a year ago.
Just bought some DIS although I might be a bit late to the party. Looked at other theme park operators and simply wasn't impressed with the offerings. I need to relook here. Its about the only travel related segment I could get excited about.
Cruise lines are interesting. I think they may lag the rest of the industry as far as the bounce back of the stock prices. I considered buying them when I started taking profits on the airlines and hotel stocks. But, I am not sure anyone but a full blooded science denier will want to cram 4,000 people into a the confined spaces of a cruise ship any time soon. But not everyone will have to if you want to to make some money here.
TLDR, I think the stock price bounce back is pretty much already baked in. But with the market hitting all time highs some travel stocks (or segments) may have a ways to go. -
The Creepy One said
"I don't watch cruise lines because I'll never be interested in them because it's such a delicate industry and always seems susceptible to industry-wide shit shows. That said, I'd expect they got the most beat up. One of the first to shut-down and, unlike the airlines, haven't been allowed to even hobble along. Those losses must be massive."
Who knows if they will even survive? Can't imagine even thinking about owning them in the next 18 months. And not even then if all of the airlines and hotels haven't fully recovered.
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Southwest is above pre-pandemic levels and the company sold shares diluting those who owned and held the stock before Covid
If that's not the definition of irrational exuberance, I don't know what is.
The reopening trade is a crowded trade. -
The reopening trade wasn't so crowded four months ago when I bought HA/HST/LUV.Baseman said:Southwest is above pre-pandemic levels and the company sold shares diluting those who owned and held the stock before Covid
If that's not the definition of irrational exuberance, I don't know what is.
The reopening trade is a crowded trade.
LUV lost 5.44 per share while DAL lost 19.49 per share and DAL has more outstanding shares. Not to be outdone, UAL lost 25.30 per share. And, in my simple mind, when you buy a stock you are essentially buying a share of the company's profit or loss (and assets and liabilities).
In the segment, most paid analysts think LUV is the best buy IF you want to buy the reopening at this late date.
I happen to be selling.
I like your takes. They make me (re)think. Please continue to poast here.
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Wow. Car rental prices approaching $ 500 / day in some places (including Hawaii) as fleets sold excess cars last year.
Unfortunately the only US publicly traded rent a car company is CAR (avis) and it is not impressive. It could be worth a look but I don't like it.
HTZ recently filed for bankruptcy so both HTZ and Enterprise (privately held) are not publicly traded.
Interesting, but in a cruise line manner. High risk, low reward? -
Often times the best investments are the ones you don't make.EwaDawg said:Wow. Car rental prices approaching $ 500 / day in some places (including Hawaii) as fleets sold excess cars last year.
Unfortunately the only US publicly traded rent a car company is CAR (avis) and it is not impressive. It could be worth a look but I don't like it.
HTZ recently filed for bankruptcy so both HTZ and Enterprise (privately held) are not publicly traded.
Interesting, but in a cruise line manner. High risk, low reward? -
As far as cruise lines go, my wife works for one. Much panic early (obviously), her company re-configured, sold off a couple of older ships, reduced work force, and held steady. People were then, and are now continuing to book cruises. My mantra to her was, if she could ride it out, it will boom when the all-clear is given...as it gets closer, this is what seems to be happening. There is talk that they are trying to do something with the Jones Act, and if they do, game on...
*If any of you work for the SEC (SEC! SEC!), this is a burner account, and I deny all of it -
The pandemic has changed my views permanently going forward. Back in 2019 I thought Southwest and Delta were the shizz. Delta was killing it and Southwest was doing what Southwest does. Berkshire owned significant stakes of each and more than a few of the credible pundits had Berkshire acquiring Southwest as they had BNSF.
Covid hit and the rest is history. I took a huge loss but was fortunate to make it all back and some on Banks.
I will never buy another airline, cruise, or hotel stock again. Too capital intensive and vulnerable to Force Majure.
