Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

Munger warns of lost decade for investing (2021-2031)

2»

Comments

  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 22,706
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes Photogenic

    Lost decade will happen when the Fed quits printing money and organic growth is required to grow...as long as the printing presses are out the $$$ have to go somewhere. Will be volatile with some corrections but the overall trend won't stop...

    And now I don't know what I fear moar: real inflation or the discipline hole. Can I reject bofe?
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 22,706
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes Photogenic

    Lost decade will happen when the Fed quits printing money and organic growth is required to grow...as long as the printing presses are out the $$$ have to go somewhere. Will be volatile with some corrections but the overall trend won't stop...

    We're being conditioned to receive checks from the government even if we're employed. This will prove destructive.
    This may be naive, but I don't think this will last too long. Each one of these little stimulus parties costs so much that even the politicians know they can't just keep doing it forever.
  • HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Member Posts: 5,951
    First Anniversary First Comment Photogenic 5 Awesomes
  • BleachedAnusDawgBleachedAnusDawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 10,397
    First Comment First Anniversary 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes
    Founders Club

    A more depressing and realistic way to look at it...


    Does that include the insane home equity growth? If yes, I am doing okay.
  • USMChawkUSMChawk Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 1,796
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes First Comment
    Swaye's Wigwam
    godawgst said:

    I have been in international growth and value for the last 10 plus years with pitiful and anemic results, waiting for when the US zigs it will zag narrative to come true.

    Finally gave up the ghost at end of 2020 and moved it into S and P 500. Your all welcome for the dream decade overseas that will be coming your way.

    I divested all my international funds (except JD) in early 2020. I was reviewing my ten year returns and they were all in the low single digits, at best. Everything else was comfortably in the double digits, or better. I thought about the political realities the international markets play in and decided it was too speculative. So, Index funds are my new best friends. I think of it like this, these are the people that are paying the politicians, to make such seemingly stupid decisions (from a fee market POV, not necessarily a Wall St POV). Might as well get into bed with them.
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 22,706
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes Photogenic

    A more depressing and realistic way to look at it...


    Sufficiently depressed. Selfishly, I guess the only remotely silver lining for me is this: I owe no debt, my kids are through college with no debt (the one in grad school is borrowing modestly as a liquidity measure for us, which I also hope will help come tax time now that she files as independent), I own my house outright, I own my property in Chelan outright, I have a stable job and I make good money ... nothing splashy by Seattle tech standards, but I do ok.

    In a free-for-all, there might be some wealth advancing opportunities for me because I'm relatively liquid and I've done a decent job controlling overhead. Where it's tuff for a guy like me is when things are en fuego and it's hard to compete where I live. E.g., I'm going to lose on a bidding war for a house in Magnolia to some F5 asshole who's able and willing to severely overpay to get his way. I'm not like that from a philosophical standpoint, and I'm not going to out-cash him.

    Anyway, I've talked myself off the ledge, but still depressed.
  • dfleadflea Member Posts: 7,220
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes First Comment 5 Up Votes

    A more depressing and realistic way to look at it...


    Yeah, no. That's not how it works.
  • HFNYHFNY Member Posts: 4,514
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes First Comment
    Standard Supporter
    EITC = Earned Income Tax Credit. It's a way to top up the pay of people who are working but not paid very much instead of a Federal minimum wage of $15.

    I should have been clearer in that one of my dads started an S&P 500 IRA for me when I was still waiting for my balls to drop. Dividend reinvestment (and the Feds Printing Presses) have been a great friend to me.

    Instead of continuing to plow money into the S&P's stretched valuations, I started a Roth IRA late last year and investing playing with house money by putting into international value and emerging market growth funds (SMIN was my first buy).

    You can checkout more info at my sites swollenreturns.com and gonzoarbitrage.com.
  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 26,538
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes Combo Breaker
    edited January 2021
    I still think that healthcare is such a ridiculous pit of scammery that I don't even know.

    I've never been in this industry and the shitty clients that we have that are completely incompetent yet billing medicare for 10 times the value of the goods is sickening.

    This one joker that was scamming medicare with the aid of a corrupt doctor tried to get me to backdate all the shipments to 2019 that went out in January. (He put in the order on new years Eve while I was watching the asu fsu shitfest at a bar)

    Then stiffed us for 300k

    Lol if you want a laugh google christopher parks medicare fraud
  • HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Member Posts: 5,951
    First Anniversary First Comment Photogenic 5 Awesomes

    I still think that healthcare is such a ridiculous pit of scammery that I don't even know.

    I've never been in this industry and the shitty clients that we have that are completely incompetent yet billing medicare for 10 times the value of the goods is sickening.

    This one joker that was scamming medicare with the aid of a corrupt doctor tried to get me to backdate all the shipments to 2019 that went out in January. (He put in the order on new years Eve while I was watching the asu fsu shitfest at a bar)

    Then stiffed us for 300k

    Lol if you want a laugh google christopher parks medicare fraud

    Agree on health care...I’m invested a lot in biotech. Risk/reward is nuts in that sector, especially on the small-cap side. The drug companies own the Democrats so should be fertile for the next 4 years.
  • godawgstgodawgst Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,405
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes First Comment
    Swaye's Wigwam

    doogie said:

    S&P is a great call. set the cash flow in, minimize expenses, leave it alone and you will beat 90% of Professional Money managers.

    This right here is a great point of discussion. The CAO at my old company - a rain man kind of figure - smartest fucking accountant I've worked with. Super conservative guy. He always said just that: retirement money, I just want the market. I don't want to try to beat it and get burned. With my (his) income, I don't need to swing for the fence. I just need to get on base and it will take care of itself in the long run.

    60 + % of my 401-K is S&P.
    You will beat at least 90% of all money managers and it's probably closer to 95%

    One other little tip. Want to know how to make your kids or grandkids millionaires? Take $3000 and put it into NAESK (vanguard small cap fund. .17% expense ratio, dividend a little over 1%) the year they are born.

    REINVEST THE DIVIDENDS, and if by some chance you can keep them and anyone elses hands off the money, it will be worth about 1.2 million when they hit 65.

    Mom did that for her grandkids about 16 and 13 years ago, and in all three cases it's on track to do just that.



  • DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 59,718
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes
    Founders Club
    I love this discussion. Even if it is sobering.
  • 89ute89ute Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 2,452
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes First Comment
    Swaye's Wigwam
    Munger is right, things have changed. Most things I don't understand, but I do understand that they way you look at markets now compared to what Munger has done over the last century, including what I was learning in the 80s - it just don't play anymore. Ask the guys shorting TSLA over the last year because it's PE ratio is so funking high ... . It didn't work.

    As for a few years out - could be bad, Like Munger said, can't predict when the bubble will pop.

    For now, stonks only go up.
  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 22,706
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes Photogenic
    89ute said:

    Munger is right, things have changed. Most things I don't understand, but I do understand that they way you look at markets now compared to what Munger has done over the last century, including what I was learning in the 80s - it just don't play anymore. Ask the guys shorting TSLA over the last year because it's PE ratio is so funking high ... . It didn't work.

    As for a few years out - could be bad, Like Munger said, can't predict when the bubble will pop.

    For now, stonks only go up.

    I plan to work another 7 to 8 years. I hope it pops soon so we? can buy shit up and have time to rebound.
Sign In or Register to comment.