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OFFICIAL Washington-Oregon State Game Thread

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  • backthepack
    backthepack Member Posts: 19,937

    Sources said:

    Sources said:

    Jimmy is a brain dead retard for not going for that, a field goal does nothing. What a fucking loser

    You know, except forcing OSU to go for a TD
    It does nothing for your win probability. A touchdown ends the game. If you dont get they’re pinned. We get it you’re a grey hair that hates analytics
    Prove it, statmaster. I’m sure if it’s 4th down on our 30, there’s no probability change if we’re up by 3 or 6. Fucking hell you’re obtuse
    We were on the 2 yard line. They are different scenarios you stupid fuck. Learn how models work
    1.) You dipshit, it was at the 5. Did anything about the offense today give you the warm fuzzies about picking up 5 yards against a stacked box?
    1.5) The previous three plays were run for no gain, run for no gain, and run for loss of 1.
    2.) What models. Show us the models. I'll continue to call bullshit on that.
    AWS has a few. You can check out PFF too. It’s not hard. Fire Donovan and let Huard cook next year
    Link or shut the fuck up. I just searched, couldn't find what you're talking about.
    Komo 4, buttfuckee
  • EwaDawg
    EwaDawg Member Posts: 4,331

    EwaDawg said:

    Sources said:

    Sources said:

    Jimmy is a brain dead retard for not going for that, a field goal does nothing. What a fucking loser

    You know, except forcing OSU to go for a TD
    It does nothing for your win probability. A touchdown ends the game. If you dont get they’re pinned. We get it you’re a grey hair that hates analytics
    Prove it, statmaster. I’m sure if it’s 4th down on our 30, there’s no probability change if we’re up by 3 or 6. Fucking hell you’re obtuse
    We were on the 2 yard line. They are different scenarios you stupid fuck. Learn how models work
    Dude. Take a stat class. Most of us wanted to go for the TD there but statistically you are DEAD fucking wrong. Give up doughboy.
    Proof?
    Sorry. Didn't realize you were a conservative. . . . . . . .
  • 1to392831weretaken
    1to392831weretaken Member Posts: 7,696

    Sources said:

    Sources said:

    Jimmy is a brain dead retard for not going for that, a field goal does nothing. What a fucking loser

    You know, except forcing OSU to go for a TD
    It does nothing for your win probability. A touchdown ends the game. If you dont get they’re pinned. We get it you’re a grey hair that hates analytics
    Prove it, statmaster. I’m sure if it’s 4th down on our 30, there’s no probability change if we’re up by 3 or 6. Fucking hell you’re obtuse
    We were on the 2 yard line. They are different scenarios you stupid fuck. Learn how models work
    1.) You dipshit, it was at the 5. Did anything about the offense today give you the warm fuzzies about picking up 5 yards against a stacked box?
    1.5) The previous three plays were run for no gain, run for no gain, and run for loss of 1.
    2.) What models. Show us the models. I'll continue to call bullshit on that.
    AWS has a few. You can check out PFF too. It’s not hard. Fire Donovan and let Huard cook next year
    Link or shut the fuck up. I just searched, couldn't find what you're talking about.
    Komo 4, buttfuckee
    I found two such win probability calculators. Both said to kick the field goal. One of them said, "Kick the field goal, and BTP likes to cite statistics that he doesn't understand to sound cool."

    I thought that was kind of weird.
  • Sources
    Sources Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 4,330 Founders Club
    Imagine asking for proof when you can’t provide any yourself
  • dannarc
    dannarc Member Posts: 2,693
    Bllllleeeeeeaaaaacccchhhhhh onnthe rocks
  • dannarc
    dannarc Member Posts: 2,693
    ZzzzzTtttttttFffffff
  • POSJohnDonovan
    POSJohnDonovan Member Posts: 38
    Watch the fucking tape. Pathetic.
  • doogville
    doogville Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 1,227 Swaye's Wigwam
    A few folks really struggling with some basics of win probability.

    The point is to win, right? So if you have an opportunity to win the game with one play, and a play that you have a high likelihood of success at (gain 5 yards), then you should gain an equal or better likelihood of success by passing up that opportunity.

    This is where Lake fucked it up. Because going up by 6 instead of 3 is pretty marginal in terms of winning. An OSU touchdown still means you lose.

    So you give up a chance to win outright, and instead just make it so OSU has to gain appx 30 more yards to beat you. You also give OSU a kickoff return opportunity, which basically guarantees them better field position than the 5.

    I think they returned it to the 20, so of the 30 extra yards you make them go to score a touchdown vs a field goal, 15 of it was wiped out instantly anyways (starting on the 20 vs the 5).

    Not sure why some fancy model is needed to realize that kicking that field goal from the 5 was a loser move.
  • POSJohnDonovan
    POSJohnDonovan Member Posts: 38
    No team in modern football history is going to be successful running the ball almost every single down. Even Alabama who ran it alot no longer does so because it simply doesn't work. This OC is a joke and the coach who hired him as well. For those of you who thought hamden was a bad OC and yes he was, wait till you have one full season of this clown under your belt, lmao. We are not Alabama of the 90's and 2000 where 5 star running back recruits a the RB position O line and pretty much the entire defense. Running the ball on very down is a complete disaster waiting to happen.
  • backthepack
    backthepack Member Posts: 19,937
    edited November 2020
    doogville said:

    A few folks really struggling with some basics of win probability.

    The point is to win, right? So if you have an opportunity to win the game with one play, and a play that you have a high likelihood of success at (gain 5 yards), then you should gain an equal or better likelihood of success by passing up that opportunity.

    This is where Lake fucked it up. Because going up by 6 instead of 3 is pretty marginal in terms of winning. An OSU touchdown still means you lose.

    So you give up a chance to win outright, and instead just make it so OSU has to gain appx 30 more yards to beat you. You also give OSU a kickoff return opportunity, which basically guarantees them better field position than the 5.

    I think they returned it to the 20, so of the 30 extra yards you make them go to score a touchdown vs a field goal, 15 of it was wiped out instantly anyways (starting on the 20 vs the 5).

    Not sure why some fancy model is needed to realize that kicking that field goal from the 5 was a loser move.

    But it’s hard and btp is a retard!!!1,11!,
  • DoogWhisperer
    DoogWhisperer Member Posts: 1,035
    Dude is part of the problem. He’s undisciplined and stiff. Should have stuck at G.
  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    guys jimmy needs more time to get his guys in there
  • CFetters_Nacho_Lover
    CFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 32,229 Founders Club
    Gladstone said:

    did the announcer say morris and eason went to the same high schhool? what

    I caught that as well and had to rewind.
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,016

    So uw doesn't play defense anymore? That was the one constant. Season is over.

    Helton is your coach lol
    Yes. I don't wish that upon anyone.
    Does this mean you respect us?

    @creepycoug
    Sure. But do they REALLY respect us?

    #63pagethreadonBeav

    #holyshit
  • haie
    haie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 23,663 Founders Club
    edited November 2020
  • 1to392831weretaken
    1to392831weretaken Member Posts: 7,696

    Why is McGrew ever on the field.

    Hawtest take of the whole thread, perhaps.
  • 1to392831weretaken
    1to392831weretaken Member Posts: 7,696

    Rome making a catch in traffic is nice. These young wideouts are going to have to fight for playing time. Lot of talent in that room.

    Okay, sorry @DoogCourics, but this take ended up perhaps being even hawter!...
  • DoogWhisperer
    DoogWhisperer Member Posts: 1,035

    Rome making a catch in traffic is nice. These young wideouts are going to have to fight for playing time. Lot of talent in that room.

    Okay, sorry @DoogCourics, but this take ended up perhaps being even hawter!...
    Well, he’s a Doog and he knows it so...
  • DoogCourics
    DoogCourics Member Posts: 5,739

    Rome making a catch in traffic is nice. These young wideouts are going to have to fight for playing time. Lot of talent in that room.

    Okay, sorry @DoogCourics, but this take ended up perhaps being even hawter!...

    Rome making a catch in traffic is nice. These young wideouts are going to have to fight for playing time. Lot of talent in that room.

    Okay, sorry @DoogCourics, but this take ended up perhaps being even hawter!...
    Well, he’s a Doog and he knows it so...





    Totally a doog. But I do try to be reasonable with my Doog Shit takes, and accountable. WR let me down last night. But I still haven’t changed my opinion on those dudes!
  • EwaDawg
    EwaDawg Member Posts: 4,331
    Shut this SHITshow down NOW. The angles they had CLEARLY showed it was a bad call. We ALL saw it.