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OFFICIAL Washington-Oregon State Game Thread

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  • doogville
    doogville Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 1,243 Swaye's Wigwam
    A few folks really struggling with some basics of win probability.

    The point is to win, right? So if you have an opportunity to win the game with one play, and a play that you have a high likelihood of success at (gain 5 yards), then you should gain an equal or better likelihood of success by passing up that opportunity.

    This is where Lake fucked it up. Because going up by 6 instead of 3 is pretty marginal in terms of winning. An OSU touchdown still means you lose.

    So you give up a chance to win outright, and instead just make it so OSU has to gain appx 30 more yards to beat you. You also give OSU a kickoff return opportunity, which basically guarantees them better field position than the 5.

    I think they returned it to the 20, so of the 30 extra yards you make them go to score a touchdown vs a field goal, 15 of it was wiped out instantly anyways (starting on the 20 vs the 5).

    Not sure why some fancy model is needed to realize that kicking that field goal from the 5 was a loser move.
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  • POSJohnDonovan
    POSJohnDonovan Member Posts: 38
    No team in modern football history is going to be successful running the ball almost every single down. Even Alabama who ran it alot no longer does so because it simply doesn't work. This OC is a joke and the coach who hired him as well. For those of you who thought hamden was a bad OC and yes he was, wait till you have one full season of this clown under your belt, lmao. We are not Alabama of the 90's and 2000 where 5 star running back recruits a the RB position O line and pretty much the entire defense. Running the ball on very down is a complete disaster waiting to happen.
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  • backthepack
    backthepack Member Posts: 19,942
    edited November 2020
    doogville said:

    A few folks really struggling with some basics of win probability.

    The point is to win, right? So if you have an opportunity to win the game with one play, and a play that you have a high likelihood of success at (gain 5 yards), then you should gain an equal or better likelihood of success by passing up that opportunity.

    This is where Lake fucked it up. Because going up by 6 instead of 3 is pretty marginal in terms of winning. An OSU touchdown still means you lose.

    So you give up a chance to win outright, and instead just make it so OSU has to gain appx 30 more yards to beat you. You also give OSU a kickoff return opportunity, which basically guarantees them better field position than the 5.

    I think they returned it to the 20, so of the 30 extra yards you make them go to score a touchdown vs a field goal, 15 of it was wiped out instantly anyways (starting on the 20 vs the 5).

    Not sure why some fancy model is needed to realize that kicking that field goal from the 5 was a loser move.

    But it’s hard and btp is a retard!!!1,11!,
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  • DoogWhisperer
    DoogWhisperer Member Posts: 1,035
    DoogCourics said:

    Dude is part of the problem. He’s undisciplined and stiff. Should have stuck at G.
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  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    guys jimmy needs more time to get his guys in there
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  • CFetters_Nacho_Lover
    CFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 32,688 Founders Club
    Gladstone said:

    did the announcer say morris and eason went to the same high schhool? what

    I caught that as well and had to rewind.
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