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Election Poll - Call It
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.AS of this AM, Nate's got Trump with 12% chance of winning the EC. So either he's gonna be smoking weed and talking shit or the Tug will. Either way it's gonna be interesting.
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
He will just do the same thing that all forecasters do... "well I did say there was a ~10% that Trump would win"YellowSnow said:AS of this AM, Nate's got Trump with 12% chance of winning the EC. So either he's gonna be smoking weed and talking shit or the Tug will. Either way it's gonna be interesting.
FWIW the betting markets have Trump at 35% -
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
Not too long ago the betting markets were close to 50/50.Houhusky said:
He will just do the same thing that all forecasters do... "well I did say there was a ~10% that Trump would win"YellowSnow said:AS of this AM, Nate's got Trump with 12% chance of winning the EC. So either he's gonna be smoking weed and talking shit or the Tug will. Either way it's gonna be interesting.
FWIW the betting markets have Trump at 35% -
Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.https://reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/clinton-has-90-percent-chance-of-winning-reuters-ipsos-states-of-the-nation-idUSKBN1322J1
NEW YORK (Reuters) - With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
Her chances are roughly similar to last week’s odds, and any upset by Trump on Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the survey released on Monday.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
November 9th
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.QUACK!
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Trump. I don't vote for losers.
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
You voted for Obama?creepycoug said:Trump. I don't vote for losers.
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Have to say, this was the first thing that occurred to me as I read the post. Have no idea what the right answer is here; I've not historically been a follower of polling, other than I remember how Trump completely outran them in 2016.Houhusky said:
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
538 themselves reported it last week... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
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Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.I believe historically polls are pretty accurate
The science is settled. Trump was an anomaly. Was it the pollsters or the pollees?
Is he still an anomaly? Stay tuned
