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Election Poll - Call It
Comments
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.Honestly I think HH brings more value to the world than fucking pollsters lol
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
If they were only mostly incorrect predictive tools they wouldn't have millions of dollars swirling around them.Pitchfork51 said:Honestly I think HH brings more value to the world than fucking pollsters lol
Like it or not, people (and outcomes) are manipulated by them... they are highly valuable, just not if you are sitting in the corner playing connect four by yourself. -
Trump in a contested election that the SCOTUS (by SCOTUS I mean Barrett) decides.So Barrett confirmed. On track for SCOTUS to put Trump in
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I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for... -
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
Kudos for having a reason.SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
Now, LEAVE -
Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.
Trafalgar’s methodology was the only one that predicted Trump winning FL, PA and MI in 2016 and DeSantis winning FL in 2018 but I’m sure Silver has fixed everything now and Trafalgar magically screwed everything up this time.SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
The Michigan #s don’t surprise me...having friends up there they absolutely despise the Governor and hated NAFTA.
That said, not sure his model will capture all the dead voting...
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
538 themselves reported it last week... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.Found one you guysm alt
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I don’t think politics has a definitive answer, it’s heavily based on worldview and what news source you trust/rely on. I think the game of who wins politics is interesting and I love stats and data. I wrote my main college essay on practical interpretations of sports and business statistics. So yes I can explain what a crosstab is, but I’m not gonna get worked up about who wins or loses. And to your point you’re right that Trump has gained among both black and Hispanic voters, but those 538 numbers you cite have Trump down 71 points among black voters and the trafalgar crosstabs have him down 36. 35 point swing from the consensus? Just because Michigan is for some reason susceptible? If Trump wins anything close to that percent among black voters than he wins an outrageous number of EVs. 350+ which could happen but not super likely.Houhusky said:
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
538 themselves reported it last week... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
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Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.
Don’t think the African American vote will be universal, but do think it will be higher for Trump in certain areas than expected. Michigan will be one due to the previous comments and the fact you have a very good African American Republican candidate for Senate there.SarksHootersTab said:
I don’t think politics has a definitive answer, it’s heavily based on worldview and what news source you trust/rely on. I think the game of who wins politics is interesting and I love stats and data. I wrote my main college essay on practical interpretations of sports and business statistics. So yes I can explain what a crosstab is, but I’m not gonna get worked up about who wins or loses. And to your point you’re right that Trump has gained among both black and Hispanic voters, but those 538 numbers you cite have Trump down 71 points among black voters and the trafalgar crosstabs have him down 36. 35 point swing from the consensus? Just because Michigan is for some reason susceptible? If Trump wins anything close to that percent among black voters than he wins an outrageous number of EVs. 350+ which could happen but not super likely.Houhusky said:
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
538 themselves reported it last week... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
