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Election Poll - Call It
Comments
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.Honestly I think HH brings more value to the world than fucking pollsters lol
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
If they were only mostly incorrect predictive tools they wouldn't have millions of dollars swirling around them.Pitchfork51 said:Honestly I think HH brings more value to the world than fucking pollsters lol
Like it or not, people (and outcomes) are manipulated by them... they are highly valuable, just not if you are sitting in the corner playing connect four by yourself. -
Trump in a contested election that the SCOTUS (by SCOTUS I mean Barrett) decides.So Barrett confirmed. On track for SCOTUS to put Trump in
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I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for... -
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
Kudos for having a reason.SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
Now, LEAVE -
Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.
Trafalgar’s methodology was the only one that predicted Trump winning FL, PA and MI in 2016 and DeSantis winning FL in 2018 but I’m sure Silver has fixed everything now and Trafalgar magically screwed everything up this time.SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
The Michigan #s don’t surprise me...having friends up there they absolutely despise the Governor and hated NAFTA.
That said, not sure his model will capture all the dead voting...
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
538 themselves reported it last week... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.Found one you guysm alt
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I don’t think politics has a definitive answer, it’s heavily based on worldview and what news source you trust/rely on. I think the game of who wins politics is interesting and I love stats and data. I wrote my main college essay on practical interpretations of sports and business statistics. So yes I can explain what a crosstab is, but I’m not gonna get worked up about who wins or loses. And to your point you’re right that Trump has gained among both black and Hispanic voters, but those 538 numbers you cite have Trump down 71 points among black voters and the trafalgar crosstabs have him down 36. 35 point swing from the consensus? Just because Michigan is for some reason susceptible? If Trump wins anything close to that percent among black voters than he wins an outrageous number of EVs. 350+ which could happen but not super likely.Houhusky said:
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
538 themselves reported it last week... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
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Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.
Don’t think the African American vote will be universal, but do think it will be higher for Trump in certain areas than expected. Michigan will be one due to the previous comments and the fact you have a very good African American Republican candidate for Senate there.SarksHootersTab said:
I don’t think politics has a definitive answer, it’s heavily based on worldview and what news source you trust/rely on. I think the game of who wins politics is interesting and I love stats and data. I wrote my main college essay on practical interpretations of sports and business statistics. So yes I can explain what a crosstab is, but I’m not gonna get worked up about who wins or loses. And to your point you’re right that Trump has gained among both black and Hispanic voters, but those 538 numbers you cite have Trump down 71 points among black voters and the trafalgar crosstabs have him down 36. 35 point swing from the consensus? Just because Michigan is for some reason susceptible? If Trump wins anything close to that percent among black voters than he wins an outrageous number of EVs. 350+ which could happen but not super likely.Houhusky said:
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
538 themselves reported it last week... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.AS of this AM, Nate's got Trump with 12% chance of winning the EC. So either he's gonna be smoking weed and talking shit or the Tug will. Either way it's gonna be interesting.
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
He will just do the same thing that all forecasters do... "well I did say there was a ~10% that Trump would win"YellowSnow said:AS of this AM, Nate's got Trump with 12% chance of winning the EC. So either he's gonna be smoking weed and talking shit or the Tug will. Either way it's gonna be interesting.
FWIW the betting markets have Trump at 35% -
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
Not too long ago the betting markets were close to 50/50.Houhusky said:
He will just do the same thing that all forecasters do... "well I did say there was a ~10% that Trump would win"YellowSnow said:AS of this AM, Nate's got Trump with 12% chance of winning the EC. So either he's gonna be smoking weed and talking shit or the Tug will. Either way it's gonna be interesting.
FWIW the betting markets have Trump at 35% -
Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.https://reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/clinton-has-90-percent-chance-of-winning-reuters-ipsos-states-of-the-nation-idUSKBN1322J1
NEW YORK (Reuters) - With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 percent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
Her chances are roughly similar to last week’s odds, and any upset by Trump on Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the survey released on Monday.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
November 9th
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.QUACK!
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Trump. I don't vote for losers.
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
You voted for Obama?creepycoug said:Trump. I don't vote for losers.
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Have to say, this was the first thing that occurred to me as I read the post. Have no idea what the right answer is here; I've not historically been a follower of polling, other than I remember how Trump completely outran them in 2016.Houhusky said:
Not political person... then mentions cross tabs that 99% of people what no idea what those even are and explains the "reasoning" perfectly...SarksHootersTab said:
I’m not a political person, but I do thinks it’s interesting to follow trends in the demographic statistics and data. But if you think Silver kicked out Trafalgar because he doesn’t like them and wants to turn the election.... lol. They posted the first poll they’ve ever had with complete cross tabs on demographics and had Trump winning 28% of the black vote and 29% of democratic votes in Michigan. If you know anything at all about the current political climate, you know how absurd that is. They then took down the crosstabs after getting shit on on twitter. I’ll come right back here and eat crow if either of those numbers is within 10% of the final total. They won’t be. Not saying that the polls won’t be way off, but Trafalgar‘s methodology was certainly not close to soundHouhusky said:
Some PosiMAGAs do not see the table that is being set...HoustonHusky said:The rest of Penn is going harder for Trump this time than 4 years ago...even the African American vote is trending more his way. It really is going to be how many ballots they can print in Philly and print with no signatures to see if they can magically get them counted.
NateSilver ejecting the last +Trump favorite pollster (Trafalger) from his very popular "538 modeling" and hinting at all the plus biden polls only being wrong IF trump cheats...
They are setting the table to create the reality they wish for...
538 themselves reported it last week... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/
They literally cited UCLA's Nationscape polling that shows Trump closing the gap in Black support from 82 points in 2016 to 71 points this year...
That was a national poll... The Michigan specific polling with have higher numbers both in black support and cross over support than the national average.
Getting a positive personal shout out by Trump has a lot more to do with them getting chopped...
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Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.I believe historically polls are pretty accurate
The science is settled. Trump was an anomaly. Was it the pollsters or the pollees?
Is he still an anomaly? Stay tuned -
Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
She's also shit talking @RaceBannonGrundleStiltzkin said:
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Biden, but much closer than the poles predicted because polesters are charlatans.
Lot riding on this one for the pollsters. They can either regain their cred or be doomed to the dust bin of history. I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I lean towards some lessons being learned. We'll see.RaceBannon said:I believe historically polls are pretty accurate
The science is settled. Trump was an anomaly. Was it the pollsters or the pollees?
Is he still an anomaly? Stay tuned -
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Biden in a landslide. Big orange dummy finally bested by geriatric creeper.Ive said for a while now that Biden is going to win... Trump has to have so many things go right just to get to an even fight and then you factor in the cheating that is going to occur
But then I see stuff like this and I think that @RaceBannon just might be on to something.
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Biden in a contested election because Barrett isn't seated and Roberts is a giant faggot.
Well, he Did turn her down, allegedly.YellowSnow said: -
Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.
If you look at the Reuters article from GameDay 2016 giving Hillary a 90 percent chance they said pretty much the same thingHouhusky said:Ive said for a while now that Biden is going to win... Trump has to have so many things go right just to get to an even fight and then you factor in the cheating that is going to occur
But then I see stuff like this and I think that @RaceBannon just might be on to something.
All this has to go right for Trump. It did
Minorities will stay home or go for Trump in a record amount which is a low bar historically.
Trump wins. The cheating will give Biden the popular vote -
Trump in a contested election that the SCOTUS (by SCOTUS I mean Barrett) decides.This just in, I’m hearing that when you call people nazis based on their opinion they don’t feel so willing to share it freely
Allegedly
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Or they'll just chalk it up to Trump being an anomaly and continue to cash their paychecks.YellowSnow said:Lot riding on this one for the pollsters. They can either regain their cred or be doomed to the dust bin of history. I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I lean towards some lessons being learned. We'll see.
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Trump in a tight one because all the poles are bullshit.
This is the most confounding conundrum of "the polls".Houhusky said:Ive said for a while now that Biden is going to win... Trump has to have so many things go right just to get to an even fight and then you factor in the cheating that is going to occur
But then I see stuff like this and I think that @RaceBannon just might be on to something.
10s of thousands of people gather for Trump.
10s of people may gather for Biden.
It's almost like the elite/media/dnc are peppering us? with crazy poll numbers claiming Biden up bigly to make it easier for them to declare later that MUST have Trump stole the election.
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It's a hangover from 2016, where the story line was too many Democrats stayed at home and didn't vote, and this time it's gonna be different! Rather than the real story line which was Hills ran an awful campaign to go along with her off-putting persona and snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory. Trump was talking about jobs; Hillary was talking about North Carolina gender/bathroom legislation ... or whatever it was.pawz said:
This is the most confounding conundrum of "the polls".Houhusky said:Ive said for a while now that Biden is going to win... Trump has to have so many things go right just to get to an even fight and then you factor in the cheating that is going to occur
But then I see stuff like this and I think that @RaceBannon just might be on to something.
10s of thousands of people gather for Trump.
10s of people may gather for Biden.
It's almost like the elite/media/dnc are peppering us? with crazy poll numbers claiming Biden up bigly to make it easier for them to declare later that MUST have Trump stole the election.
So, there is supposed to be this massive wave of "decent people" who will turn out for Biden this tim.
