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Maximum Carnage Week Game Thread
Comments
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ITS NOT THE FLU!
Interesting read from the UK in that the Flu / Pneumonia have killed more people since late June than covid.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8617795/More-Britons-killed-flu-pneumonia-coronavirus-seven-weeks.html -
All the more reason to stay in lockdown for a few more yearshuskyhooligan said:ITS NOT THE FLU!
Interesting read from the UK in that the Flu / Pneumonia have killed more people since late June than covid.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8617795/More-Britons-killed-flu-pneumonia-coronavirus-seven-weeks.html -
KUOW used their grim voices last night to report on a recent uptick, nay, surge in cases. If Jay hadn’t already seen his shadow, that did it.
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Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot understands the grim reality of this Death Virus and is taking it very seriously.
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Going to be awkward backstage when Tapper bumps into Fredo.
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There is a whole thread I started on this that our guardians of truth have no interest inNorthwestFresh said:Going to be awkward backstage when Tapper bumps into Fredo.
What until the Governor finds out Fredo called him a liar in an interview with Cruz
"Of course not!" Cruz exclaimed. "We could have a very reasonable policy discussion about the policy mistakes in New York, New Jersey of sending COVID-positive patients into nursing homes and I think that was a very serious policy mistake."
"Mhm, because that didn't happen all over the country, right?" Cuomo said.
"No, it didn't happen in Texas. That's one of the reasons why the death rate in New York is four times the death rate in Texas," Cruz responded. -
NorthwestFresh said:
Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot understands the grim reality of this Death Virus and is taking it very seriously.
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@huskyhooliganHouhusky said:
Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?huskyhooligan said:
4.69%huskyhooligan said:4.75%
7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
rolling deaths still less than one.
I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.
The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext
Operational false positives is exactly what I was trying to get at... glad someone out there atleast attempted a scientific estimate.
For reference;
Washington "Safe Start" requires Counties have fewer than 25 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day span.
This estimate would indicate a false positive rate of 8-40 per 1,000 tests... 800-4000 false positives per 100,000 tests -
Not even taking into account the increased sensitivity of the US test.Houhusky said:
@huskyhooliganHouhusky said:
Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?huskyhooligan said:
4.69%huskyhooligan said:4.75%
7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
rolling deaths still less than one.
I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.
The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext
Operational false positives is exactly what I was trying to get at... glad someone out there atleast attempted a scientific estimate.
For reference;
Washington "Safe Start" requires Counties have fewer than 25 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day span.
This estimate would indicate a false positive rate of 8-40 per 1,000 tests... 800-4000 false positives per 100,000 tests -
Inslee’s 25 new cases bar is fuckingly stupid.Houhusky said:
@huskyhooliganHouhusky said:
Has anyone out there published what the baseline positive rate is?huskyhooligan said:
4.69%huskyhooligan said:4.75%
7 day rolling deaths still less than 1, with incomplete data.
rolling deaths still less than one.
I'm a bit perplexed that the death data is on a lag. I mean, if someone is in the hospital due to complications to covid, why does that data take so long to report? Makes you wonder. Buddies grandfather died about a month ago, was positive for covid in March. I'd venture he has counted towards a positive covid death despite his heart just stopping, and being 98 or something.
Not just the tests technical constraints but the observed or estimated false positive rate when you take into account misreporting, sampling error, contamination, and countless other little hiccups that occur in the real world. I dont understand why the positive rate (still pointless), as it appears to approach an asymptote doesn't have confidence intervals or uncertainty bars included.
The baseline positive rate is a >0 number...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext
Operational false positives is exactly what I was trying to get at... glad someone out there atleast attempted a scientific estimate.
For reference;
Washington "Safe Start" requires Counties have fewer than 25 new cases per 100,000 residents over a 14-day span.
This estimate would indicate a false positive rate of 8-40 per 1,000 tests... 800-4000 false positives per 100,000 tests
New cases mean shit. Show me hospitalizations.
