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King, Snohomish, Pierce data combined ( based on date of illness onset )

DoogieMcDoogerson
DoogieMcDoogerson Member Posts: 2,506
edited July 2020 in Tug Tavern
Scoreboard looks good ( hospitalization and deaths ). Covid moving the ball well, but failing in the red zone. Source of data? WA Dept of Health

Cases


Hospitalizations


Deaths

Comments

  • MikeDamone
    MikeDamone Member Posts: 37,781
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,729 Founders Club
    Looks like a flat curve
  • incremetal_progress
    incremetal_progress Member Posts: 358
    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.
  • theknowledge
    theknowledge Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,626 Founders Club

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
  • Bob_C
    Bob_C Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,640 Founders Club
    edited July 2020

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    You’re right on. The death rate was always going to go down, assuming hospitals were functioning, as they are.

    March picked off a ton of the really weak, exposed bad policies in NY around nursing homes that aren’t being repeated.

    Not only is testing higher in volume, it’s being collected completely differently. Just looking at King County, hospitals/positive cases were like 20% in March. Positive cases and hospitalizations were completely correlated in real time as people who were truly sick were getting tested as they entered hospitals, there was no lag.

    It’s totally different now. Demographics aside, it implies that had the testing method been the same in early March as it is now, we would have had at least 5 times as many cases as what is actually reported to get to a similar hospital rate with 1 week lag less than 5%, that we are seeing now with long lead testing in place. So the spike in cases that is being seen now, which is like 2/3 as big as the late March peak in total positive cases is in reality about 15% of what the early March peak would have looked like with the same methods in place.

  • theknowledge
    theknowledge Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,626 Founders Club
    Bob_C said:

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    You’re right on. The death rate was always going to go down, assuming hospitals were functioning, as they are.

    March picked off a ton of the really weak, exposed bad policies in NY around nursing homes that aren’t being repeated.

    Not only is testing higher in volume, it’s being collected completely differently. Just looking at King County, hospitals/positive cases were like 20% in March. Positive cases and hospitalizations were completely correlated in real time as people who were truly sick were getting tested as they entered hospitals, there was no lag.

    It’s totally different now. Demographics aside, it implies that had the testing method been the same in early March as it is now, we would have had at least 5 times as many cases as what is actually reported to get to a similar hospital rate with 1 week lag less than 5%, that we are seeing now with long lead testing in place. So the spike in cases that is being seen now, which is like 2/3 as big as the late March peak in total positive cases is in reality about 15% of what the early March peak would have looked like with the same methods in place.

    TYFYS
    Grocer accepted numbers.
  • incremetal_progress
    incremetal_progress Member Posts: 358

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
  • WestlinnDuck
    WestlinnDuck Member Posts: 17,545 Standard Supporter
    Florida always had a lot of old people and historically hospitals are operated at near capacity to keep costs down. The percentage of hospital beds is a false indicator.
  • NorthwestFresh
    NorthwestFresh Member Posts: 7,972

    Florida always had a lot of old people and historically hospitals are operated at near capacity to keep costs down. The percentage of hospital beds is a false indicator.

    Basic Economics is lost on the morons crying about capacity.
  • GrundleStiltzkin
    GrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,516 Standard Supporter
    Cases are not 1:1 illnesses
    Illnesses are not 1:1 hospitalizations
  • theknowledge
    theknowledge Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,626 Founders Club

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
  • incremetal_progress
    incremetal_progress Member Posts: 358

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
    I think the death and hospitalization numbers lag so far behind no only because it takes longer to die but the process of actually reporting deaths takes time as well so we're still seeing the decline from the earlier peak in May. Europe and Asia have shown that if the virus was repressed successfully through a lockdown a slightly altered version of normal life can resume (which is what they are doing now) while still keeping infections down. We never fully put out the fire so rather than having small flare ups which can be controlled via testing/tracing the original flame has grown into a wildfire and has no sign of stopping anytime soon.
  • PostGameOrangeSlices
    PostGameOrangeSlices Member Posts: 27,164

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
    I think the death and hospitalization numbers lag so far behind no only because it takes longer to die but the process of actually reporting deaths takes time as well so we're still seeing the decline from the earlier peak in May. Europe and Asia have shown that if the virus was repressed successfully through a lockdown a slightly altered version of normal life can resume (which is what they are doing now) while still keeping infections down. We never fully put out the fire so rather than having small flare ups which can be controlled via testing/tracing the original flame has grown into a wildfire and has no sign of stopping anytime soon.
    Dude.....

    The fucking European numbers are on par with the fucking US and in some cases are worse

    Fuck off
  • incremetal_progress
    incremetal_progress Member Posts: 358

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
    I think the death and hospitalization numbers lag so far behind no only because it takes longer to die but the process of actually reporting deaths takes time as well so we're still seeing the decline from the earlier peak in May. Europe and Asia have shown that if the virus was repressed successfully through a lockdown a slightly altered version of normal life can resume (which is what they are doing now) while still keeping infections down. We never fully put out the fire so rather than having small flare ups which can be controlled via testing/tracing the original flame has grown into a wildfire and has no sign of stopping anytime soon.
    Dude.....

    The fucking European numbers are on par with the fucking US and in some cases are worse

    Fuck off
    God you're a fucking idiot.
  • incremetal_progress
    incremetal_progress Member Posts: 358


    Data from this week in King County shows a drop in % positives and cases. Last 2 days are meaningless as negatives lag positives.

    If people just wear masks and be smart it can be controlled, hopefully this continues.
  • incremetal_progress
    incremetal_progress Member Posts: 358
    edited July 2020
    Fupdate:

    King County % positive dipped back below 3% for the first time since late June today.

    Within Seattle it's almost down to 1%.


    Restaurants partially open for indoor dining, retail open. Never had to roll back anything from phase 2.
    Masks. Work.
  • theknowledge
    theknowledge Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,626 Founders Club

    Fupdate:

    King County % positive dipped back below 3% for the first time since late June today.

    Within Seattle it's almost down to 1%.


    Restaurants partially open for indoor dining, retail open. Never had to roll back anything from phase 2.
    Masks. Work.

    Mass peaceful protests, looting and autonomous zones are over right? Have been for a few weeks right? You’re right, must be the masks.
  • incremetal_progress
    incremetal_progress Member Posts: 358
    If your argument that the late June spike was due to protests is accurate, which it definitely is to a degree although a lot of it was UW greek system. Seattle was able to extinguish that surge with people wearing masks and a 48 hour testing turnaround time that actually allows for effective contact tracing and isolating. Now it's heading on a trajectory where schopls can open (partially) AND be safe.

    It's almost as if Seattle is a great place to live.
  • Swaye
    Swaye Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 41,739 Founders Club

    Great stats to justify fucking over the economy.

    For fucks sake

    If it prevents Trump from being reelected it will have all been worth it. - Pelosi
  • Swaye
    Swaye Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 41,739 Founders Club

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
    I think the death and hospitalization numbers lag so far behind no only because it takes longer to die but the process of actually reporting deaths takes time as well so we're still seeing the decline from the earlier peak in May. Europe and Asia have shown that if the virus was repressed successfully through a lockdown a slightly altered version of normal life can resume (which is what they are doing now) while still keeping infections down. We never fully put out the fire so rather than having small flare ups which can be controlled via testing/tracing the original flame has grown into a wildfire and has no sign of stopping anytime soon.
    This sounds made up.
  • TurdBomber
    TurdBomber Member Posts: 20,035 Standard Supporter

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
    I think the death and hospitalization numbers lag so far behind no only because it takes longer to die but the process of actually reporting deaths takes time as well so we're still seeing the decline from the earlier peak in May. Europe and Asia have shown that if the virus was repressed successfully through a lockdown a slightly altered version of normal life can resume (which is what they are doing now) while still keeping infections down. We never fully put out the fire so rather than having small flare ups which can be controlled via testing/tracing the original flame has grown into a wildfire and has no sign of stopping anytime soon.
    Awesome. We'll be the first Immune Herd.

    Can't stop winning.

    USA! USA! USA!
  • TurdBomber
    TurdBomber Member Posts: 20,035 Standard Supporter



    Data from this week in King County shows a drop in % positives and cases. Last 2 days are meaningless as negatives lag positives.

    If people just wear masks and be smart it can be controlled, hopefully this continues.

    People are wearing masks.

    But being smart? There's too many like you out there, holding back the stampede of the Herd.
  • incremetal_progress
    incremetal_progress Member Posts: 358
    Swaye said:

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
    I think the death and hospitalization numbers lag so far behind no only because it takes longer to die but the process of actually reporting deaths takes time as well so we're still seeing the decline from the earlier peak in May. Europe and Asia have shown that if the virus was repressed successfully through a lockdown a slightly altered version of normal life can resume (which is what they are doing now) while still keeping infections down. We never fully put out the fire so rather than having small flare ups which can be controlled via testing/tracing the original flame has grown into a wildfire and has no sign of stopping anytime soon.
    This sounds made up.
    Literally it's what Fauci has been saying. I know that probably doesn't sway you but it's not made up.
  • Bob_C
    Bob_C Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,640 Founders Club

    Swaye said:

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
    I think the death and hospitalization numbers lag so far behind no only because it takes longer to die but the process of actually reporting deaths takes time as well so we're still seeing the decline from the earlier peak in May. Europe and Asia have shown that if the virus was repressed successfully through a lockdown a slightly altered version of normal life can resume (which is what they are doing now) while still keeping infections down. We never fully put out the fire so rather than having small flare ups which can be controlled via testing/tracing the original flame has grown into a wildfire and has no sign of stopping anytime soon.
    This sounds made up.
    Literally it's what Fauci has been saying. I know that probably doesn't sway you but it's not made up.
    Fauci has said both sides of every topic at some point. He’s fully covered on everything. So you’re correct he has said that.