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King, Snohomish, Pierce data combined ( based on date of illness onset )

DoogieMcDoogersonDoogieMcDoogerson Member Posts: 2,488
edited July 2020 in Tug Tavern
Scoreboard looks good ( hospitalization and deaths ). Covid moving the ball well, but failing in the red zone. Source of data? WA Dept of Health

Cases


Hospitalizations


Deaths

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  • MikeDamoneMikeDamone Member Posts: 37,781
    Dammit
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 104,455 Founders Club
    Looks like a flat curve
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  • incremetal_progressincremetal_progress Member Posts: 358
    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.
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  • theknowledgetheknowledge Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 4,779 Founders Club
    incremetal_progress said:

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
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  • Bob_CBob_C Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 10,201 Swaye's Wigwam
    edited July 2020
    theknowledge said:

    incremetal_progress said:

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    You’re right on. The death rate was always going to go down, assuming hospitals were functioning, as they are.

    March picked off a ton of the really weak, exposed bad policies in NY around nursing homes that aren’t being repeated.

    Not only is testing higher in volume, it’s being collected completely differently. Just looking at King County, hospitals/positive cases were like 20% in March. Positive cases and hospitalizations were completely correlated in real time as people who were truly sick were getting tested as they entered hospitals, there was no lag.

    It’s totally different now. Demographics aside, it implies that had the testing method been the same in early March as it is now, we would have had at least 5 times as many cases as what is actually reported to get to a similar hospital rate with 1 week lag less than 5%, that we are seeing now with long lead testing in place. So the spike in cases that is being seen now, which is like 2/3 as big as the late March peak in total positive cases is in reality about 15% of what the early March peak would have looked like with the same methods in place.

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  • theknowledgetheknowledge Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 4,779 Founders Club
    Bob_C said:

    theknowledge said:

    incremetal_progress said:

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    You’re right on. The death rate was always going to go down, assuming hospitals were functioning, as they are.

    March picked off a ton of the really weak, exposed bad policies in NY around nursing homes that aren’t being repeated.

    Not only is testing higher in volume, it’s being collected completely differently. Just looking at King County, hospitals/positive cases were like 20% in March. Positive cases and hospitalizations were completely correlated in real time as people who were truly sick were getting tested as they entered hospitals, there was no lag.

    It’s totally different now. Demographics aside, it implies that had the testing method been the same in early March as it is now, we would have had at least 5 times as many cases as what is actually reported to get to a similar hospital rate with 1 week lag less than 5%, that we are seeing now with long lead testing in place. So the spike in cases that is being seen now, which is like 2/3 as big as the late March peak in total positive cases is in reality about 15% of what the early March peak would have looked like with the same methods in place.

    TYFYS
    Grocer accepted numbers.
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  • incremetal_progressincremetal_progress Member Posts: 358
    theknowledge said:

    incremetal_progress said:

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
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  • WestlinnDuckWestlinnDuck Member Posts: 15,004 Standard Supporter
    Florida always had a lot of old people and historically hospitals are operated at near capacity to keep costs down. The percentage of hospital beds is a false indicator.
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  • NorthwestFreshNorthwestFresh Member Posts: 7,972
    WestlinnDuck said:

    Florida always had a lot of old people and historically hospitals are operated at near capacity to keep costs down. The percentage of hospital beds is a false indicator.

    Basic Economics is lost on the morons crying about capacity.
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  • GrundleStiltzkinGrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,485 Standard Supporter
    Cases are not 1:1 illnesses
    Illnesses are not 1:1 hospitalizations
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  • theknowledgetheknowledge Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 4,779 Founders Club
    incremetal_progress said:

    theknowledge said:

    incremetal_progress said:

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
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  • incremetal_progressincremetal_progress Member Posts: 358
    theknowledge said:

    incremetal_progress said:

    theknowledge said:

    incremetal_progress said:

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
    I think the death and hospitalization numbers lag so far behind no only because it takes longer to die but the process of actually reporting deaths takes time as well so we're still seeing the decline from the earlier peak in May. Europe and Asia have shown that if the virus was repressed successfully through a lockdown a slightly altered version of normal life can resume (which is what they are doing now) while still keeping infections down. We never fully put out the fire so rather than having small flare ups which can be controlled via testing/tracing the original flame has grown into a wildfire and has no sign of stopping anytime soon.
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  • PostGameOrangeSlicesPostGameOrangeSlices Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 25,445 Swaye's Wigwam
    incremetal_progress said:

    theknowledge said:

    incremetal_progress said:

    theknowledge said:

    incremetal_progress said:

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
    I think the death and hospitalization numbers lag so far behind no only because it takes longer to die but the process of actually reporting deaths takes time as well so we're still seeing the decline from the earlier peak in May. Europe and Asia have shown that if the virus was repressed successfully through a lockdown a slightly altered version of normal life can resume (which is what they are doing now) while still keeping infections down. We never fully put out the fire so rather than having small flare ups which can be controlled via testing/tracing the original flame has grown into a wildfire and has no sign of stopping anytime soon.
    Dude.....

    The fucking European numbers are on par with the fucking US and in some cases are worse

    Fuck off
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  • incremetal_progressincremetal_progress Member Posts: 358
    PostGameOrangeSlices said:

    incremetal_progress said:

    theknowledge said:

    incremetal_progress said:

    theknowledge said:

    incremetal_progress said:

    as I said in another thread the rate of hospitalizations ticking up is worrisome.

    The rate of positives in king county has stayed largely between 3-4% which is not horrible and definitely reversible.

    I just bag groceries for a living but it appears that the three graphs run their spikes congruently. The hospitalizations do seem to lag by a couple of weeks in the first spike but currently after a month of the cases going up again we aren't seeing a likewise spike in either hospitalizations or deaths this time. Looking at March-April bars we should have been seeing the same spikes like a week ago. I've read many articles suggesting that we have seen a burn out of severe infection. Unlike the Southern states Washington was exposed early. Could it be possible that the south is in their initial infection period but because of better methods of treatment and better awareness of who is truly at risk that we aren't seeing the deaths? My mom is going in for a minor surgery soon. She will take up a bed afterwards. She will be counted as a hospitalization, Correct? These procedures weren't happening during lockdown so the hospitals were way below capacity. It's hard to compare the two timelines in that case, Correct? Once again, I bag groceries and graduated from a rural public high school so I may be incorrect or misinformed. Feel free to call me out and make me see the light. I don't mind learning new things.
    Cases are shifting towards younger people so there will be fewer hospitalizations, and while case numbers are up as I said there are no signs of massive growth yet with a stable positivity rate.

    Yeah hospitals aren't even close to being overwhelmed in Washington anywhere except maybe Yakima although infections are now way down there. Only now are hospitals in Florida filling up and Washington didn't open up until like a month later. So there is still time here to actually get it under reasonable control so schools can have a safe opening, which is the most important thing right now but cannot be forced.
    Thanks for being civil. I still don’t see the correlation in relation to math, and graphs. We lived in our houses and cases went down. We came out and went to work, restaurants, bars, barbers, protests, riots and cases went back up. Hospitalizations and deaths remained low. This was to be expected when you let people back out, right? The virus didn’t disappear and we can’t stay inside forever. At some point we have to do what we have to do, right? I mean avoidance can’t be done forever. It just can’t.
    I think the death and hospitalization numbers lag so far behind no only because it takes longer to die but the process of actually reporting deaths takes time as well so we're still seeing the decline from the earlier peak in May. Europe and Asia have shown that if the virus was repressed successfully through a lockdown a slightly altered version of normal life can resume (which is what they are doing now) while still keeping infections down. We never fully put out the fire so rather than having small flare ups which can be controlled via testing/tracing the original flame has grown into a wildfire and has no sign of stopping anytime soon.
    Dude.....

    The fucking European numbers are on par with the fucking US and in some cases are worse

    Fuck off
    God you're a fucking idiot.
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