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I was right.
MikeDamone
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,781
in Tug Tavern
I wasn’t wrong two and a half months ago, and I’m still not wrong, today. This, despite being repeatedly called a “denialist” and a “scaremonger” since this whole #CommieVirus thing began. Which, I find rather amusing — because first, I have no idea what I’ve “denied” — and second, I’ve been on the exact opposite side of the truly scary mainstream media’s scariest scaremongers since day one of all the scariness.
We’ll get to the latest CDC numbers shortly, but first . . . let’s review:
From the very earliest published accounts of “mortality rates” at 4-5% — which scared the sh*t out of the whole world, and radically transformed our 2020 vocabularies — I’ve been 100% consistent in saying, “Uhhh . . . no. The final numbers are going to come in somewhere between 0.1% and 0.3%” . . . AND, I’ve still yet to call anyone a “Karen,” (with my outside voice).
Well, lo and behold . . . the mighty CDC has finally pulled their collective denominators out of their bureaucratic asses! After consulting a 5th-grade, pre-common core arithmetic primer . . . and having entered all the relevant variables, (this time), into their super-abacus . . . then remembering to ‘carry the 2’ . . . voilà! The most recent math brings the ‘Rona mortality rate down to:
0.26%.
(Almost exactly where the smart kids at both Stanford and UCLA had it, over a month ago. And those two SOCAL doctors that YouTube bounced.)
Oh . . . and if you’re under 65, don’t weigh 450 lbs., and you’re not forcibly relocated by New York’s governor to live in a place called ‘The Happiest Last Two Months Of Your Life Cause You’re Sick AF Senior Rest Home And Bingo Parlor,’ you’re more likely to be killed by a vengeful coconut tree than by COVID-19. (True story.)
For that, we’ve put at least 40 million Americans on the unemployment rolls and set in motion a global economic train wreck that will ultimately dwarf this particular coronaf**kingvirus’s death toll by a factor of about 10. (But, I’m sure we saved at least one life from the COVID . . . so . . . totally worth it!)
Anyway . . . while the MSM ignores the CDC’s latest numbers, continues to parade forth their “experts” warning us that we’re reopening hair salons and churches too soon, kindergarteners must wear masks to school, and that we can’t yet safely attend a GWAR concert . . . (okay, okay — no one ever ‘safely’ attends a GWAR show) . . . I’m somehow the denialist and scaremonger in our midst.
As late as yesterday, there are people still hitting this Page, STILL claiming those old 4-5% mortality rates, and calling me a “grandma killer.” Telling me I need to stay home or wear a mask until there’s a cure, or I should be arrested and charged with murder for “possibly” asymptomatically spreading this disease.
Where do these people get their news and information? Is the math really that hard? What’s the root source of the predisposition of so many to automatically believe claims by power-hungry government bureaucrats and “if it bleeds it leads” news media, that the world is coming to an end, tomorrow — by either disease, overpopulation, climate chaos, or Fred Trump’s spawn — and when NONE of that EVER happens . . . I’m somehow the “denialist?”
Again, let’s be clear. According to the latest CDC numbers, the overall COVID-19 “survivability rate” stands at:
99.74%
(I’ve been saying 99.8%. Just wait. We’ll get there.)
If you’re under 65, not morbidly obese, and don’t have a handful of serious pre-existing health problems, your survivability rate is greater than that of tomorrow’s commute to work, (assuming you still have a job). Roughly:
>99.99%
But, you’re not going to hear this good news today on NPR or CNN.
Don’t get me wrong . . . and I repeat:
-It still SUCKS to have another “flu” running concurrently to our normal run-of-the-mill flus that have killed millions of people and will continue to do so because those vaccines generally suck.
-#CommieVirus, while not even fractionally as dangerous as we were ‘LIED’ to believe, (see what I did there?), is also going to eventually kill millions before it runs its course. That’s what these things do, and there’s nothing we can do about it. We’re all going to eventually be exposed, 60-ish% of us are going to be infected, and if you’re even moderately healthy, it’s statistically the LEAST likely thing that’s going to kill you.
I’ll let Daniel Horowitz break down the numbers for you, this time. Enjoy:
https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threads/horowitz-the-cdc-confirms-remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-where-is-the-media.268618/
P.S. — Before you ask me where I get those “survivability rate” numbers . . . please just send me a self-addressed, pre-stamped envelope, (along with a check for $9.95), and I’ll send you a personalized, autographed, handwritten, grade school math equation — suitable for framing and hanging next to your velvet Elvis portrait. (Normally a $29.95 value!)
#CommieVirus2020
#ReopenAmericaNow
Comments
The virus was mostly an unknown. With what we did know (or believed), we locked down. Easy transmission, higher than usual death rates for similar illnesses. All of that still true, but we know now that the death rates are clearly not worth the drastic response. With what we know we can take precautions that reflect the risk and get back to normal life.
What we don’t know unfortunately is the impact of the “got coronavirus but didn’t die” outcome. How bad is the impact of the virus? Permanently scarred? Minor cold? What is it?
We need to understand that, but we also need to get back to fucking normal, so let’s be cautious and prudent but let’s fucking go.
Worth noting that this is March 1 - 31 data, and on March 31 the "functioning" death rate (i.e. deaths/confirmed cases) was 2.7 (today, it's 5.9, thanks to NYC). Shoutout to NYC.
You aren't wrong to think that the overall death rate is a shit ton lower than that (5.9% is simply strenuously false), but I think .4% might be a little too low. Luckily, we have numbers for this sort of thing.
A .4 percent death rate, or .004, on March 31 gives us 1,287,750 cases on that date (5151 confirmed deaths). So we can use that as a proportion.
We'll do a 2 proportion z test at a=.01 with this data and the Diamond Princess data (which, to date, is the closest thing we have to a good picture. It's not perfect for multiple reasons. But, it has the full scope of cases and a decent look into what the actual death rate looks like).
p1: Diamond Princess (13/712)
p2: This CDC estimate (5151/1287750)
Ho: p1 = p2
Ha: p1 > p2
pC = x1 + x2 / n1 + n2
Worth noting that this test would not meet the requirements for randomness or independence, so proceed w caution.
z= p1 + p2 / sqrt (pC (1-pC) (1/n1 + 1/n2))
This gives a z-score of 6.0201, commensurate with p-value 1.749 *10^-11. Or, 0.000000001749.
So, we have found our results to be statistically significant at a=.01. We reject the null hypothesis.
In other words, if the true rate of deaths/infections between that CDC estimate's given number and the Diamond Princess was the same, we would observe these results approximately 0% of the time. This means that one of the numbers is off. Our Ha was that the DP rate is bigger, which we conclude it is. But what does this mean?
Now, you may point to the DP's small sample size, which is fair. This is in no way a perfect statistical analysis.
However, there's one important point of data in DP's favor - EVERY single person was tested. This means they found every case and found the true scope of deaths/cases.
So, it's reasonable to conclude that the DP is more likely to be the "true" death rate.
But, it's still too high. Here's why.
We can't legitimately measure lurking variables. We don't have ANY way of TRULY knowing how age, health conditions, air quality, healthcare, obesity, and more actually affect the death rate. We know they do this, but without widespread testing we cannot quantify it.
What we DO know is that the median age of the passengers was 69. And, 567 cases occurred in passengers, where all 14 deaths occurred. (I know I put 13 in the test, whatever, I don't care. No fundamental difference). That's a 2.5% rate (and we have already determined our results from this will be statistically significant).
But the more important number: 145 crew infections, 0 deaths. Crew median age: 36.
The median age in the US is 38.2.
We know the death rate for working age adults is very low. As a percentage of the population, though, we will draw our estimates from the overall DP rate, because the overall DP rate includes the 145 crew who did not die (omitting these 145 is a perfect example of how you could make numbers misleading).
Best estimate, our overall death rate is around .8 - 1.2. But, this isn't as bad as it looks. The vast majority of that is 65+. The death rate for working age adults is going to be about .01.
Before you say, "oh, but jhfstyle1-23, how can you be sure that this is the right interpretation," excess death data shows that covid deaths are likely a little higher that reported - somewhere around 120,000 currently. So I am confident that, when considered that the DP got the full scope, the overall death rate is a little bit higher than that estimate.
But what people citing that statistic do not get is that we have FAR more cases than are being reported. Not having good testing is biting us in the ass on this one.
Our lower bound death rate estimate gives us about 15,000,000 COVID cases so far, and 120,000 deaths.
Note that I have not inserted any political conclusions into this. This is just playing with numbers. There's no bias there.
As far as my political stance is confirmed - as bad as this sounds, I don't know how you can really justify a shutdown, looking at this. Yes, old people are dying.
Fact of the matter is, tell people at risk to stay home, companies with remote working capabilities do so - but a full shutdown doesn't appear to be necessary.
The justification for a continuing shutdown would be that more concurrent cases --> more hospitalizations --> lowered treatment capacity --> increased death rate, but based on the curve in European countries, it's hard to say that opening it up would truly skyrocket cases in a way that would cause legitimate risk of an increasing death rate.
Spain is perhaps the country hardest hit besides the US (although newer data shows Brazil may be completely fucked - 735,224 tests, 334,777 positives). In Spain, the curve is logarithmic - exponential initial increase, then begins increasing slower and slower. But the data doesn't reeeeallly show that flattening the curve helped Spain's death rate.
Yes, the outcome of total closed cases makes it LOOK like flattening the curve lowered the death rate, but when you LOOK, you realize that it's far more likely that it was simply increased testing capacity showing more cases that obviously resulted in fewer deaths.
So, in my opinion, I don't really see how you can justify not opening up with restrictions. But take from this what you will.
Or quit plagiarism my shit, fucko.
Katrina & The Waves > Second Wave
That just tells you what a steaming pile of dung the Second Wave is.
Shit data in shit data out.
Shit pouring from Fow Chee's mouth.
Like no joke if I was in a bubble and didn't read the news I would have no clue this exists
No one was trying to tell me that planes were crashing into every building in the us