The Rona doesn't bother kids. We know this. So why?
Because they can be carriers, because they can be asymptomatic, because anyone can be asymptomatic.
Fuck off.
My kids and Grandkids remain on Permanent lockdown because they might get my friends sick while they themselves are at No personal risk?
It’s interesting the immediate reaction is that I’m advocating for there to be no school in the fall. I am not. Those who are in support, however, will say all 3 things I said above. It has little to do with immediate risk to children.
Can we just get to killing Granny so this shit can be over. If you aren't 80, there is little to no risk. If you are 80, you are just a total suck on the economy and the SS savings will be good for everyone. Win fucking win.
sir (yes i assumed your gender!) look at this buoyancy beauty below, she was just 29 and perished! if it can get her, it can get anyone!
The Rona doesn't bother kids. We know this. So why?
Because they can be carriers, because they can be asymptomatic, because anyone can be asymptomatic.
Fuck off.
My kids and Grandkids remain on Permanent lockdown because they might get my friends sick while they themselves are at No personal risk?
It’s interesting the immediate reaction is that I’m advocating for there to be no school in the fall. I am not. Those who are in support, however, will say all 3 things I said above. It has little to do with immediate risk to children.
The only thing in the middle of the road is road kill. Take a stand son
The Rona doesn't bother kids. We know this. So why?
Because they can be carriers, because they can be asymptomatic, because anyone can be asymptomatic.
Fuck off.
My kids and Grandkids remain on Permanent lockdown because they might get my friends sick while they themselves are at No personal risk?
It’s interesting the immediate reaction is that I’m advocating for there to be no school in the fall. I am not. Those who are in support, however, will say all 3 things I said above. It has little to do with immediate risk to children.
A more rational concern—also cited by these governors—addresses the possibility that asymptomatic schoolchildren could end up passing the virus to their teachers, parents, or other adults. But even here the balance of existing evidence suggests this worry is largely unfounded. “Children under 10 are less likely to get infected than adults, and if they get infected, they are less likely to get seriously ill,” said Kári Stefánsson, in an interview following the publication of an Icelandic study he coauthored in The New England Journal of Medicine. “What is interesting,” he continued, “is that even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents.”
The same conclusion has been reached by many others. A report released by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment for the Netherlands found “no indications that children younger than 12 years were the first to be infected within the family.” Rather, it remarked, “The virus is mainly spread between adults and from adult family members to children.” A report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease stated: “Of note, people interviewed by the Joint Mission Team could not recall episodes in which transmission occurred from a child to an adult.”
Had (800) GOT-JUNK swing by on Sunday and pick up a bunch of stuff. Neither of the workers wore masks and they weren’t worried about catching the ‘vid. They’ve been working the entire time and have 4-5 stops a day. Neither one has been sick or met anyone who has been.
By the way, it cost me over $500.00 to get rid of donatable stuff because Inslee has shut down the charity’s but not the junk yards. How does that jive with his green message? Inslee, you useless fucking twat.
The fact of the matter is, we don't have enough data to make grand conclusions either direction (def should re-open or def shouldn't). You simply cannot say with 100% confidence what the right move is with our current data.
But you can, however, create confidence intervals. That isn't very hard. It seems to me all we have to do is look at the total deaths occurring, look at the usual deaths that occur during this same timeframe, and create a confidence interval after taking into account other variables. Then, you look at those deaths, and use underlying data to extrapolate the risk.
Example (made up numbers, because I don't know):
From March 15 to May 10, there were 35,000 deaths in New York City. Let's say the usual expected death total is 10,000 deaths.
The dumbfucks among us will say, oh look, 25,000 excess deaths from coronavirus!
But, when we look at the underlying numbers, it's actually (reminder that these numbers are pulled out of my ass and complete bullshit): 15,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths, 5,000 potential coronavirus deaths, and 5,000 that have no confirmed link.
So, we can say from that, the true number is probably closer to 20k.
And so you can construct a 95% confidence interval that says (this is an estimate, I feel no need to do the math), 19000 - 21000 confirmed deaths from coronavirus in New York City between March 15 to May 15.
Well, that's certainly not a good number, but you're talking 348,655 CONFIRMED infections. The death rate for cases as reported in the numbers (literally, cases/deaths, for the whole timespan) is 27,175/348,655 = 0.07794237856. If the death rate is really 7.79%, well shit!
HOWEVER, the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship will give us a better sample. Everybody got tested, so we know the full extent of all cases. 712 cases, 13 deaths = 1.83 % death rate, and that's a population that is a little older and less healthy than NYC. So we can estimate a 1.5% death rate with a case in NYC (and, mind you, that's on the high side).
Let's extrapolate that out, with our confidence interval, to get the range of confirmed cases.
Incredibly, our 95% estimated range for coronavirus cases (assuming my bullshit numbers are true, which they aren't) : 1,266,667, 1,400,000.
See how fucking easy that is? In about 2 minutes of math, you can construct a reasonable interval for both true cases, deaths, and death rate in any location in the world with decent data, just by noting the underlying assumptions.
But wait, there's more!
Much has been made of the death rate/age group relationship.
What if we take those bullshit made up numbers above and look by age group?
I am far too lazy, but considering the reported death rate for senior citizens being like 15%, we can estimate. That would mean they make up the vast majority of those deaths in our interval - say, 13,000 or so - and further estimation can tell use that there is a total of deaths between 6-8k for anyone under 65.
There are 8,400,000 people in New York City. About 1 million are 65+.
So, of the other 7,400,000 people, 6-8k died from the coronavirus. Now you can establish a reasonable estimate for the actual percentage of non-senior citizens who have died.
0.00081081081, 0.00108108108
So, we find, from this made up exercise, our NYC death rate for non-senior citizens (among all population, not just cases) is literally .001, or .1 percent. In terms of the cases caught, it's like .4 percent (just an estimate based on the percentage of cases that are seniors vs non seniors).
Again, this is a bullshit exercise with bullshit numbers, but it is easily conducted and it can be done by anyone with the data from any city.
From my bullshit exercise, we have found: Total cases Total deaths Death rate by group Overall death rate for all population Death rate for non-seniors
And I didn't even remove underlying causes, like:
Air Quality Smoking Obesity Financial Security
I mean, for fuck's sake. This took me 10 minutes, albeit without having the real numbers (which I could look up if I wanted to).
Point is, any fucking mathematician could do this for any location, anywhere, and draw a proper conclusion.
And yet all our politicians want to do is debate about what the right move is. Just do the fucking math. You can learn this shit in a 10th grade intro stats course.
The fact of the matter is, we don't have enough data to make grand conclusions either direction (def should re-open or def shouldn't). You simply cannot say with 100% confidence what the right move is with our current data.
But you can, however, create confidence intervals. That isn't very hard. It seems to me all we have to do is look at the total deaths occurring, look at the usual deaths that occur during this same timeframe, and create a confidence interval after taking into account other variables. Then, you look at those deaths, and use underlying data to extrapolate the risk.
Example (made up numbers, because I don't know):
From March 15 to May 10, there were 35,000 deaths in New York City. Let's say the usual expected death total is 10,000 deaths.
The dumbfucks among us will say, oh look, 25,000 excess deaths from coronavirus!
But, when we look at the underlying numbers, it's actually (reminder that these numbers are pulled out of my ass and complete bullshit): 15,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths, 5,000 potential coronavirus deaths, and 5,000 that have no confirmed link.
So, we can say from that, the true number is probably closer to 20k.
And so you can construct a 95% confidence interval that says (this is an estimate, I feel no need to do the math), 19000 - 21000 confirmed deaths from coronavirus in New York City between March 15 to May 15.
Well, that's certainly not a good number, but you're talking 348,655 CONFIRMED infections. However, the death rate for cases as reported in the numbers (literally, cases/deaths, for the whole timespan) is 27,175/348,655 = 0.07794237856. If the death rate is really 7.79%, well shit!
However, the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship will give us a better sample. Everybody got tested, so we know the full extent of all cases. 712 cases, 13 deaths = 1.83 % death rate, and that's a population that is a little older and less healthy than NYC. So we can estimate a 1.5% death rate with a case in NYC (and, mind you, that's on the high side).
Let's extrapolate that out, with our confidence interval, to get the range of confirmed cases.
Incredibly, our 95% estimated range for coronavirus cases (assuming my bullshit numbers are true, which they aren't) : 1,266,667, 1,400,000.
See how fucking easy that is? In about 2 minutes of math, you can construct a reasonable interval for both true cases, deaths, and death rate in any location in the world with decent data, just by noting the underlying assumptions.
But wait, there's more!
Much has been made of the death rate/age group relationship.
What if we take those bullshit made up numbers above and look by age group?
I am far too lazy, but considering the reported death rate for senior citizens being like 15%, we can estimate. That would mean they make up the vast majority of those deaths in our interval - say, 13,000 or so - and further estimation can tell use that there is a total of deaths between 6-8k for anyone under 65.
There are 8,400,000 people in New York City. About 1 million are 65+.
So, of the other 7,400,000 people, 6-8k died from the coronavirus. Now you can establish a reasonable estimate for the actual percentage of non-senior citizens who have died.
0.00081081081, 0.00108108108
So, we find, from this made up exercise, our NYC death rate for non-senior citizens (among all population, not just cases) is literally .001, or .1 percent. In terms of the cases caught, it's like .4 percent (just an estimate based on the percentage of cases that are seniors vs non seniors).
Again, this is a bullshit exercise with bullshit numbers, but it is easily conducted and it can be done by anyone with the data from any city.
From my bullshit exercise, we have found: Total cases Total deaths Death rate by group Overall death rate for all population Death rate for non-seniors
And I didn't even remove underlying causes, like:
Air Quality Smoking Obesity Financial Security
I mean, for fuck's sake. This took me 10 minutes, albeit without having the real numbers (which I could look up if I wanted to).
Point is, any fucking mathematician could do this for any location, anywhere, and draw a proper conclusion.
And yet all our politicians want to do is debate about what the right move is. Just do the fucking math. You can learn this shit in a 10th grade intro state course.
Had (800) GOT-JUNK swing by on Sunday and pick up a bunch of stuff. Neither of the workers wore masks and they weren’t worried about catching the ‘vid. They’ve been working the entire time and have 4-5 stops a day. Neither one has been sick or met anyone who has been.
By the way, it cost me over $500.00 to get rid of donatable stuff because Inslee has shut down the charity’s but not the junk yards. How does that jive with his green message? Inslee, you useless fucking twat.
There are Goodwill stores that are open on the Eastside.
We’ve been having the landscapers arrive as scheduled and had the house cleaners today. That’s the stand I chose to take (Hi Race!)
Had (800) GOT-JUNK swing by on Sunday and pick up a bunch of stuff. Neither of the workers wore masks and they weren’t worried about catching the ‘vid. They’ve been working the entire time and have 4-5 stops a day. Neither one has been sick or met anyone who has been.
By the way, it cost me over $500.00 to get rid of donatable stuff because Inslee has shut down the charity’s but not the junk yards. How does that jive with his green message? Inslee, you useless fucking twat.
There are Goodwill stores that are open on the Eastside.
We’ve been having the landscapers arrive as scheduled and had the house cleaners today. That’s the stand I chose to take (Hi Race!)
Had (800) GOT-JUNK swing by on Sunday and pick up a bunch of stuff. Neither of the workers wore masks and they weren’t worried about catching the ‘vid. They’ve been working the entire time and have 4-5 stops a day. Neither one has been sick or met anyone who has been.
By the way, it cost me over $500.00 to get rid of donatable stuff because Inslee has shut down the charity’s but not the junk yards. How does that jive with his green message? Inslee, you useless fucking twat.
There are Goodwill stores that are open on the Eastside.
We’ve been having the landscapers arrive as scheduled and had the house cleaners today. That’s the stand I chose to take (Hi Race!)
They just opened the one near us and the line of cars stretched over two blocks. Plus, we had a lot of stuff.
The Rona doesn't bother kids. We know this. So why?
Because they can be carriers, because they can be asymptomatic, because anyone can be asymptomatic.
Fuck off.
My kids and Grandkids remain on Permanent lockdown because they might get my friends sick while they themselves are at No personal risk?
It’s interesting the immediate reaction is that I’m advocating for there to be no school in the fall. I am not. Those who are in support, however, will say all 3 things I said above. It has little to do with immediate risk to children.
Had (800) GOT-JUNK swing by on Sunday and pick up a bunch of stuff. Neither of the workers wore masks and they weren’t worried about catching the ‘vid. They’ve been working the entire time and have 4-5 stops a day. Neither one has been sick or met anyone who has been.
By the way, it cost me over $500.00 to get rid of donatable stuff because Inslee has shut down the charity’s but not the junk yards. How does that jive with his green message? Inslee, you useless fucking twat.
I was talking with a neighbor the other day who told me the exact same thing. Goodwill is across the street from her storage facility. But because they have been closed or had limited hours with huge waiting times, she had to hire (800) GOT JUNK to get rid of her stuff for her.
Had (800) GOT-JUNK swing by on Sunday and pick up a bunch of stuff. Neither of the workers wore masks and they weren’t worried about catching the ‘vid. They’ve been working the entire time and have 4-5 stops a day. Neither one has been sick or met anyone who has been.
By the way, it cost me over $500.00 to get rid of donatable stuff because Inslee has shut down the charity’s but not the junk yards. How does that jive with his green message? Inslee, you useless fucking twat.
There are Goodwill stores that are open on the Eastside.
We’ve been having the landscapers arrive as scheduled and had the house cleaners today. That’s the stand I chose to take (Hi Race!)
Comments
He said it’s higher than the basic deaths / infections say.
Obviously that’s bullshit. I’ve tuned out.
Now more than ever we need a neutral party to outline everything mathematically and ethically to the masses.
By the way, it cost me over $500.00 to get rid of donatable stuff because Inslee has shut down the charity’s but not the junk yards. How does that jive with his green message? Inslee, you useless fucking twat.
The fact of the matter is, we don't have enough data to make grand conclusions either direction (def should re-open or def shouldn't). You simply cannot say with 100% confidence what the right move is with our current data.
But you can, however, create confidence intervals. That isn't very hard. It seems to me all we have to do is look at the total deaths occurring, look at the usual deaths that occur during this same timeframe, and create a confidence interval after taking into account other variables. Then, you look at those deaths, and use underlying data to extrapolate the risk.
Example (made up numbers, because I don't know):
From March 15 to May 10, there were 35,000 deaths in New York City. Let's say the usual expected death total is 10,000 deaths.
The dumbfucks among us will say, oh look, 25,000 excess deaths from coronavirus!
But, when we look at the underlying numbers, it's actually (reminder that these numbers are pulled out of my ass and complete bullshit): 15,000 confirmed coronavirus deaths, 5,000 potential coronavirus deaths, and 5,000 that have no confirmed link.
So, we can say from that, the true number is probably closer to 20k.
And so you can construct a 95% confidence interval that says (this is an estimate, I feel no need to do the math), 19000 - 21000 confirmed deaths from coronavirus in New York City between March 15 to May 15.
Well, that's certainly not a good number, but you're talking 348,655 CONFIRMED infections. The death rate for cases as reported in the numbers (literally, cases/deaths, for the whole timespan) is 27,175/348,655 = 0.07794237856. If the death rate is really 7.79%, well shit!
HOWEVER, the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship will give us a better sample. Everybody got tested, so we know the full extent of all cases. 712 cases, 13 deaths = 1.83 % death rate, and that's a population that is a little older and less healthy than NYC. So we can estimate a 1.5% death rate with a case in NYC (and, mind you, that's on the high side).
Let's extrapolate that out, with our confidence interval, to get the range of confirmed cases.
Incredibly, our 95% estimated range for coronavirus cases (assuming my bullshit numbers are true, which they aren't) : 1,266,667, 1,400,000.
See how fucking easy that is? In about 2 minutes of math, you can construct a reasonable interval for both true cases, deaths, and death rate in any location in the world with decent data, just by noting the underlying assumptions.
But wait, there's more!
Much has been made of the death rate/age group relationship.
What if we take those bullshit made up numbers above and look by age group?
I am far too lazy, but considering the reported death rate for senior citizens being like 15%, we can estimate. That would mean they make up the vast majority of those deaths in our interval - say, 13,000 or so - and further estimation can tell use that there is a total of deaths between 6-8k for anyone under 65.
There are 8,400,000 people in New York City. About 1 million are 65+.
So, of the other 7,400,000 people, 6-8k died from the coronavirus. Now you can establish a reasonable estimate for the actual percentage of non-senior citizens who have died.
0.00081081081, 0.00108108108
So, we find, from this made up exercise, our NYC death rate for non-senior citizens (among all population, not just cases) is literally .001, or .1 percent. In terms of the cases caught, it's like .4 percent (just an estimate based on the percentage of cases that are seniors vs non seniors).
Again, this is a bullshit exercise with bullshit numbers, but it is easily conducted and it can be done by anyone with the data from any city.
From my bullshit exercise, we have found:
Total cases
Total deaths
Death rate by group
Overall death rate for all population
Death rate for non-seniors
And I didn't even remove underlying causes, like:
Air Quality
Smoking
Obesity
Financial Security
I mean, for fuck's sake. This took me 10 minutes, albeit without having the real numbers (which I could look up if I wanted to).
Point is, any fucking mathematician could do this for any location, anywhere, and draw a proper conclusion.
And yet all our politicians want to do is debate about what the right move is. Just do the fucking math. You can learn this shit in a 10th grade intro stats course.
Crisped
We’ve been having the landscapers arrive as scheduled and had the house cleaners today. That’s the stand I chose to take (Hi Race!)
Even Mello himself will admit that gif was funny.