134,475 deaths now forecasted because google and facebook say so and the states are opening up despite the IHME's advice. Oh and our model sucks so we're going to do a 2.0 and explain it using a bunch of scientific shit like "meta-regression Bayesian regularized trimmed model (MR-BRT)"
I like to say it's a great predictive model that changes every week.
"Scientists credited the surge in part to rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11.
“In each state, the evolution of the epidemic depends on the balance between relaxed social distancing, increasing temperature, and rising rates of testing and contact tracing,” Murray said. “We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer.”"Based on our updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August. These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics."
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updatesWho funds the IHME?
IHME receives core grant funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[52] and the state of Washington. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); Inter-American Development Bank; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute; Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health; Medtronic Philanthropy; and the National Institute on Aging have also contributed funding through project grants and contracts.
