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When "scientists" play politics..who funds the IHME again?
DoogieMcDoogerson
Member Posts: 2,528
in Tug Tavern
134,475 deaths now forecasted because google and facebook say so and the states are opening up despite the IHME's advice. Oh and our model sucks so we're going to do a 2.0 and explain it using a bunch of scientific shit like "meta-regression Bayesian regularized trimmed model (MR-BRT)"
I like to say it's a great predictive model that changes every week.
"Scientists credited the surge in part to rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11.
“In each state, the evolution of the epidemic depends on the balance between relaxed social distancing, increasing temperature, and rising rates of testing and contact tracing,” Murray said. “We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer.”
"Based on our updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August. These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics."
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Who funds the IHME?
IHME receives core grant funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[52] and the state of Washington. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); Inter-American Development Bank; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute; Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health; Medtronic Philanthropy; and the National Institute on Aging have also contributed funding through project grants and contracts.
I like to say it's a great predictive model that changes every week.
"Scientists credited the surge in part to rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11.
“In each state, the evolution of the epidemic depends on the balance between relaxed social distancing, increasing temperature, and rising rates of testing and contact tracing,” Murray said. “We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer.”
"Based on our updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August. These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics."
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Who funds the IHME?
IHME receives core grant funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[52] and the state of Washington. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); Inter-American Development Bank; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute; Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health; Medtronic Philanthropy; and the National Institute on Aging have also contributed funding through project grants and contracts.
Comments
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They really have their shit dialed in. This model is shit more than 2-3 days out. Of course, their up-forecasting of deaths works against the conservative leaders plans to open stuff up.
Nice range of uncertainty for California:
Compared to Washington:
They are dialed in for Texas:
What the hell, why not - The US: ( only an order of magnitude range of possible results )
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We will hit 72,000 deaths by Wednesday. How many more weeks would you have had them forecasting 72,000 dead by August 4?
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Stay under your bed counselor. No one is making you leave your house. How much more in taxes are you voluntarily going to pay this year to make up for the shortfall? Oh, that's right. You don't do voluntarily. You make your strong moral decisions at the threat of government gun point.
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Faggots
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Why lie? CDC says >38,000 as of todayHHusky said:We will hit 72,000 deaths by Wednesday. How many more weeks would you have had them forecasting 72,000 dead by August 4?
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There’s no doubt I’ll actually be paying less in taxes this year, Gasbag. We’re in a recession and I’m in the private sector. And taxes have never been a moral issue with me. I’ve been reminding you of that for about 20 years.WestlinnDuck said:Stay under your bed counselor. No one is making you leave your house. How much more in taxes are you voluntarily going to pay this year to make up for the shortfall? Oh, that's right. You don't do voluntarily. You make your strong moral decisions at the threat of government gun point.
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https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmGDS said:
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point. -
Those are the NCHS numbers which are based on death certificates (hence they lag by multiple weeks).GrundleStiltzkin said:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmGDS said:
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point.
Here are the CDC numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
