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When "scientists" play politics..who funds the IHME again?
DoogieMcDoogerson
Member Posts: 2,495
in Tug Tavern
134,475 deaths now forecasted because google and facebook say so and the states are opening up despite the IHME's advice. Oh and our model sucks so we're going to do a 2.0 and explain it using a bunch of scientific shit like "meta-regression Bayesian regularized trimmed model (MR-BRT)"
I like to say it's a great predictive model that changes every week.
"Scientists credited the surge in part to rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11.
“In each state, the evolution of the epidemic depends on the balance between relaxed social distancing, increasing temperature, and rising rates of testing and contact tracing,” Murray said. “We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer.”
"Based on our updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August. These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics."
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Who funds the IHME?
IHME receives core grant funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[52] and the state of Washington. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); Inter-American Development Bank; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute; Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health; Medtronic Philanthropy; and the National Institute on Aging have also contributed funding through project grants and contracts.
I like to say it's a great predictive model that changes every week.
"Scientists credited the surge in part to rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11.
“In each state, the evolution of the epidemic depends on the balance between relaxed social distancing, increasing temperature, and rising rates of testing and contact tracing,” Murray said. “We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer.”
"Based on our updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August. These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics."
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Who funds the IHME?
IHME receives core grant funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[52] and the state of Washington. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); Inter-American Development Bank; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute; Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health; Medtronic Philanthropy; and the National Institute on Aging have also contributed funding through project grants and contracts.
Comments
Nice range of uncertainty for California:
Compared to Washington:
They are dialed in for Texas:
What the hell, why not - The US: ( only an order of magnitude range of possible results )
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point.
Here are the CDC numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
Table 1. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by week ending date, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 5/2/2020.*
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Again, I ask, why do you lie when the numbers are so easily attainable?
Cases in the U.S.
Last updated on May 4, 2020
TOTAL CASES
1,152,372
29,763 New Cases*
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
Got it
“ Covid is Not pneumonia”
Yet here we see some CDC bureaucratic dolt deliberately sensationalizing deaths?
So let's break down the fear here. Of all of the 70,000 deaths, 60% of them are in a hundred mile radius, 3,000 miles away from the West Coast. As for the rest of the country about half of the deaths originate in nursing homes. Antibody tests performed around the country and world, however flawed, have been pretty consistent that about 4% of the population has it or has had it. So considering that, we are looking at a death rate of .5% of those infected here in Merica.
The virus is dangerous in the heavily populated areas around New York and to those over 80 elsewhere. To the rest of the country and age groups, it's the flu.
The "experts" know that a vaccine isn't going to happen anytime soon and they know there are 10 times the people exposed than what has had a positive test. The "experts" have also said that the Swede Strategy was the way to go. But the unholy trinity of the Western shore continues to lie about using science as their guide to reopening, when it's clear it's about control and politics.
As to the rest of your post I actually agree with most of what you posted. The death rate still seems to be somewhere between .65 and .8 heavily concentrated among the olds. Isolate the vulnerable and let the rest of us start opening things up because we can't continue this until a vaccine is widely available (if a vaccine is ever widely available). Multiple countries are getting at least elementary school kids back to school which makes a whole lotta sense considering a total of 8 people under the age of 18 have died from this thing in the US.