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When "scientists" play politics..who funds the IHME again?

2

Comments

  • UWerentThereManUWerentThereMan Member Posts: 3,475
    edited May 2020
    I’m not a modeler so don’t listen to me. But it’s odd that they’re making conservative models now and having to adjust them up to keep the people locked in. Just keep the number of deaths high and the model will do what was intended.

    In other words, modelers on day 1 said “there’s no way they’ll shutdown the economy, therefore, 2 million deaths are likely.” Then the economy does shutdown so they adjust the models for that saying 60,000 deaths. Now, “oh shit! The madmen want to go back to normal now? Better double the deaths”

    Model for next year, not next month.
  • KaepskneeKaepsknee Member Posts: 14,896
    HHusky said:

    More grist for your conspiracy mill: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/a-mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-even-more-contagious-than-the-original-study-says/ar-BB13CHNP?ocid=spartandhp
    Sounds scary. I am proud that you took the time to learn that viruses mutate though. Further proves my point that we won't have a vaccine for years if ever.

  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 17,166 Swaye's Wigwam

    I’m not a modeler so don’t listen to me. But it’s odd that they’re making conservative models now and having to adjust them up to keep the people locked in. Just keep the number of deaths high and the model will do what was intended.

    In other words, modelers on day 1 said “there’s no way they’ll shutdown the economy, therefore, 2 million deaths are likely.” Then the economy does shutdown so they adjust the models for that saying 60,000 deaths. Now, “oh shit! The madmen want to go back to normal now? Better double the deaths”

    Model for next year, not next month.

    I mean, I've only done hundreds of Bayesian regressions but I'm hearing that I need to, "Shut up and listen to the experts!" in government. "It's science."
  • KaepskneeKaepsknee Member Posts: 14,896
    edited May 2020
    GDS said:

    - "In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19." This of course is completely false. In actuality there are fewer covid deaths reported in New York than what are considered deaths above normal for the last 5 years.

    As to the rest of your post I actually agree with most of what you posted. The death rate still seems to be somewhere between .65 and .8 heavily concentrated among the olds. Isolate the vulnerable and let the rest of us start opening things up because we can't continue this until a vaccine is widely available (if a vaccine is ever widely available). Multiple countries are getting at least elementary school kids back to school which makes a whole lotta sense considering a total of 8 people under the age of 18 have died from this thing in the US.
    Anywhere from 25-30,000 less people are dying each week than average, in our country since the lock down. But if you die in a Hospital in New York, there's an overwhelming chance that the COD will be COV19.
  • UWerentThereManUWerentThereMan Member Posts: 3,475
    salemcoog said:

    Anywhere from 25-30,000 less people are dying each week than average, in our country since the lock down. But if you die in a Hospital in New York, there's an overwhelming chance that the COD will be COV19.
    I think at this point, if you sneezed and a piano fell on your head, you died of the COVID
  • GDSGDS Member Posts: 1,470
    salemcoog said:

    Anywhere from 25-30,000 less people are dying each week than average, in our country since the lock down. But if you die in a Hospital in New York, there's an overwhelming chance that the COD will be COV19.
    Again - more bullshit. On average about 50-55k people die in the US each week. So you think the death rate has fallen by 50-60% since March...lol? I realize why you think that as again you are relying on NCHS data which lags by as much as 8 weeks but your claim is false.

    Looking strictly at NYC from March 8th to April 11th there were approximately 11,900 deaths per week above average. Of those deaths above average only 85% of them were directly linked to Covid. Based upon that it's possible (likely?) that the covid deaths in NYC are actually being undercounted at least slightly.
  • SledogSledog Member Posts: 35,775 Standard Supporter
    My friend had his mother in law die recently. Not from the virus. But of course they listed it as a virus death. Fed money doesn't flow otherwise. His wife was livid and complained. It took two weeks to get the proper cause of death listed and they held up releasing the body for that long as well.

    So if you think the numbers aren't being cooked you're daft.

    If you think people won't say fuck it and accept the cause of death instead of going through all the bullshit they went through you're wrong.
  • HHuskyHHusky Member Posts: 22,669
    Sledog said:

    My friend had his mother in law die recently. Not from the virus. But of course they listed it as a virus death. Fed money doesn't flow otherwise. His wife was livid and complained. It took two weeks to get the proper cause of death listed and they held up releasing the body for that long as well.

    So if you think the numbers aren't being cooked you're daft.

    If you think people won't say fuck it and accept the cause of death instead of going through all the bullshit they went through you're wrong.

    A private Idaho is it?
  • SledogSledog Member Posts: 35,775 Standard Supporter
    HHusky said:

    A private Idaho is it?
    Kalifornia.
  • UWerentThereManUWerentThereMan Member Posts: 3,475
    edited May 2020
    Sledog said:

    My friend had his mother in law die recently. Not from the virus. But of course they listed it as a virus death. Fed money doesn't flow otherwise. His wife was livid and complained. It took two weeks to get the proper cause of death listed and they held up releasing the body for that long as well.

    So if you think the numbers aren't being cooked you're daft.

    If you think people won't say fuck it and accept the cause of death instead of going through all the bullshit they went through you're wrong.

    Scott Adams on how flu deaths are counted. Jump to 14:24
    https://youtu.be/ILzjaHrhO2c?t=864
  • KaepskneeKaepsknee Member Posts: 14,896
    edited May 2020
    GDS said:

    Again - more bullshit. On average about 50-55k people die in the US each week. So you think the death rate has fallen by 50-60% since March...lol? I realize why you think that as again you are relying on NCHS data which lags by as much as 8 weeks but your claim is false.

    Looking strictly at NYC from March 8th to April 11th there were approximately 11,900 deaths per week above average. Of those deaths above average only 85% of them were directly linked to Covid. Based upon that it's possible (likely?) that the covid deaths in NYC are actually being undercounted at least slightly.
    GDS said:

    Again - more bullshit. On average about 50-55k people die in the US each week. So you think the death rate has fallen by 50-60% since March...lol? I realize why you think that as again you are relying on NCHS data which lags by as much as 8 weeks but your claim is false.

    Looking strictly at NYC from March 8th to April 11th there were approximately 11,900 deaths per week above average. Of those deaths above average only 85% of them were directly linked to Covid. Based upon that it's possible (likely?) that the covid deaths in NYC are actually being undercounted at least slightly.

    It's been reported from doctors, hospital admins, funeral directors, Dr Birx, etc, etc. that New York deaths and deaths all over the country are being rubber stamped as covid without ever being tested. Hospitals are going broke and they get 4 times the Federal dollars for a covid death than not and the Government is encouraging it

    And I call bullshit on 12,000 more people than average died per week in New York that month. That would mean that 40% of Americans that died, did so in New York. By your numbers, not mine.

    Of course Cuomo just pulled out another 1400 nursing home deaths today out of nowhere. If you consider that fraud as evidence, as why it's under reported, I can't help you.


    And Man if we are looking for boogeymen. How can we not have Dibliasio and Cuomo at the head of the charts. The mayor on March 11 balked at closing down Broadway and said he fully intended on having the St Patricks parade. Cuomo on Feb 27th compared it to the flu and said it wasn't a threat via tweet.

    In early April when it became clear that the nursing homes in New York were being ravaged. They made no effort to move Seniors out of there. They just let them stew in the virus and infect anyone who dared walk into those petri dishes from hell. Why didn't they use the ship and other temporary facilities to get them out of the nursing homes, so that they could fumigated? Nope. He just would spend 2 hours every morning crying but Trump, Trump, Trump.

    Another major factor of infection and death was public transpo. Until this week, they were being "sanitized" every 3 days. And finally this week, they are sanitizing every day for 4 hours. Why did this not happen 6 weeks ago???? How many hundreds if not thousands of people died just because of that?

    The leadership of New York has not only failed their state but they have failed the whole country with their ineptness. They are up to their necks in blood.
  • HHuskyHHusky Member Posts: 22,669
    HHusky said:

    We will hit 72,000 deaths by Wednesday. How many more weeks would you have had them forecasting 72,000 dead by August 4?

    It didn't even take till Wednesday.
  • GDSGDS Member Posts: 1,470
    salemcoog said:


    It's been reported from doctors, hospital admins, funeral directors, Dr Birx, etc, etc. that New York deaths and deaths all over the country are being rubber stamped as covid without ever being tested. Hospitals are going broke and they get 4 times the Federal dollars for a covid death than not and the Government is encouraging it

    And I call bullshit on 12,000 more people than average died per week in New York that month. That would mean that 40% of Americans that died, did so in New York. By your numbers, not mine.

    Of course Cuomo just pulled out another 1400 nursing home deaths today out of nowhere. If you consider that fraud as evidence, as why it's under reported, I can't help you.


    And Man if we are looking for boogeymen. How can we not have Dibliasio and Cuomo at the head of the charts. The mayor on March 11 balked at closing down Broadway and said he fully intended on having the St Patricks parade. Cuomo on Feb 27th compared it to the flu and said it wasn't a threat via tweet.

    In early April when it became clear that the nursing homes in New York were being ravaged. They made no effort to move Seniors out of there. They just let them stew in the virus and infect anyone who dared walk into those petri dishes from hell. Why didn't they use the ship and other temporary facilities to get them out of the nursing homes, so that they could fumigated? Nope. He just would spend 2 hours every morning crying but Trump, Trump, Trump.

    Another major factor of infection and death was public transpo. Until this week, they were being "sanitized" every 3 days. And finally this week, they are sanitizing every day for 4 hours. Why did this not happen 6 weeks ago???? How many hundreds if not thousands of people died just because of that?

    The leadership of New York has not only failed their state but they have failed the whole country with their ineptness. They are up to their necks in blood.
    No they don’t. Do you get your news from bullshit Facebook memes? As part of the stimulus Medicare increased reimbursement for covid patients by 20% and agreed to cover uninsured patients. Do you really think that 20% is leading hospitals to commit widespread fraud?
  • KaepskneeKaepsknee Member Posts: 14,896
    GDS said:

    No they don’t. Do you get your news from bullshit Facebook memes? As part of the stimulus Medicare increased reimbursement for covid patients by 20% and agreed to cover uninsured patients. Do you really think that 20% is leading hospitals to commit widespread fraud?
    $39,000 if they die. $11,000 if they get on a vent and live. Pretty common knowledge by now.
  • ThomasFremontThomasFremont Member Posts: 13,325
    salemcoog said:

    $39,000 if they die. $11,000 if they get on a vent and live. Pretty common knowledge by now.
    I LOVE that you’re making an unintentional case against the for profit medical system.
  • KaepskneeKaepsknee Member Posts: 14,896

    I LOVE that you’re making an unintentional case against the for profit medical system.
    Actually I was wrong. It’s a little north of $40K if a patient gets the death sentence of being on a vent. And $13k for a diagnosis of C19.

    And your conflation is duly noted.
  • ThomasFremontThomasFremont Member Posts: 13,325
    salemcoog said:

    Actually I was wrong. It’s a little north of $40K if a patient gets the death sentence of being on a vent. And $13k for a diagnosis of C19.

    And your conflation is duly noted.
    Hey what’s a little conflating between frens?
  • KaepskneeKaepsknee Member Posts: 14,896

    Hey what’s a little conflating between frens?
    In this economy it becomes difficult at times. But some times ya just gotta reach for the stars.
  • GDSGDS Member Posts: 1,470
    salemcoog said:

    Actually I was wrong. It’s a little north of $40K if a patient gets the death sentence of being on a vent. And $13k for a diagnosis of C19.

    And your conflation is duly noted.
    Hospitals received reimbursements of about 13k for admitting and caring for a patient with a respiratory infection and 40k for a severe infection which required the use of a ventilator...before covid....

    An analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation looked at average Medicare payments for hospital admissions for the existing diagnosis-related groups and noted that the “average Medicare payment for respiratory infections and inflammations with major comorbidities or complications in 2017 … was $13,297. For more severe hospitalizations, we use the average Medicare payment for a respiratory system diagnosis with ventilator support for greater than 96 hours, which was $40,218.”
  • doogiedoogie Member Posts: 15,072
    For my Mom, insurance(s) covered about $1.2 Million over the past 3 years or so
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