Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.
When "scientists" play politics..who funds the IHME again?
DoogieMcDoogerson
Member Posts: 2,506
in Tug Tavern
134,475 deaths now forecasted because google and facebook say so and the states are opening up despite the IHME's advice. Oh and our model sucks so we're going to do a 2.0 and explain it using a bunch of scientific shit like "meta-regression Bayesian regularized trimmed model (MR-BRT)"
I like to say it's a great predictive model that changes every week.
"Scientists credited the surge in part to rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11.
“In each state, the evolution of the epidemic depends on the balance between relaxed social distancing, increasing temperature, and rising rates of testing and contact tracing,” Murray said. “We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer.”
"Based on our updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August. These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics."
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Who funds the IHME?
IHME receives core grant funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[52] and the state of Washington. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); Inter-American Development Bank; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute; Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health; Medtronic Philanthropy; and the National Institute on Aging have also contributed funding through project grants and contracts.
I like to say it's a great predictive model that changes every week.
"Scientists credited the surge in part to rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11.
“In each state, the evolution of the epidemic depends on the balance between relaxed social distancing, increasing temperature, and rising rates of testing and contact tracing,” Murray said. “We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer.”
"Based on our updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August. These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics."
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Who funds the IHME?
IHME receives core grant funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation[52] and the state of Washington. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); Inter-American Development Bank; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute; Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Ministry of Health; Medtronic Philanthropy; and the National Institute on Aging have also contributed funding through project grants and contracts.
Comments
-
-
They really have their shit dialed in. This model is shit more than 2-3 days out. Of course, their up-forecasting of deaths works against the conservative leaders plans to open stuff up.
Nice range of uncertainty for California:
Compared to Washington:
They are dialed in for Texas:
What the hell, why not - The US: ( only an order of magnitude range of possible results )
-
We will hit 72,000 deaths by Wednesday. How many more weeks would you have had them forecasting 72,000 dead by August 4?
-
Stay under your bed counselor. No one is making you leave your house. How much more in taxes are you voluntarily going to pay this year to make up for the shortfall? Oh, that's right. You don't do voluntarily. You make your strong moral decisions at the threat of government gun point.
-
Faggots
-
Why lie? CDC says >38,000 as of todayHHusky said:We will hit 72,000 deaths by Wednesday. How many more weeks would you have had them forecasting 72,000 dead by August 4?
-
There’s no doubt I’ll actually be paying less in taxes this year, Gasbag. We’re in a recession and I’m in the private sector. And taxes have never been a moral issue with me. I’ve been reminding you of that for about 20 years.WestlinnDuck said:Stay under your bed counselor. No one is making you leave your house. How much more in taxes are you voluntarily going to pay this year to make up for the shortfall? Oh, that's right. You don't do voluntarily. You make your strong moral decisions at the threat of government gun point.
-
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmGDS said:
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point. -
Those are the NCHS numbers which are based on death certificates (hence they lag by multiple weeks).GrundleStiltzkin said:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmGDS said:
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point.
Here are the CDC numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
-
Yes, CDC says total deaths are 57k. Covid deaths are 38k
Table 1. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by week ending date, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 5/2/2020.*
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Again, I ask, why do you lie when the numbers are so easily attainable? -
Because that is what he does. Its the only way he can FEEL GOOD when he has no facts.doogie said:Yes, CDC says total deaths are 57k. Covid deaths are 38k
Table 1. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by week ending date, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 5/2/2020.*
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Again, I ask, why do you lie when the numbers are so easily attainable? -
Hell it's even in the title...as explained the NCHS statistics are based on death certs hence why they lag by multiple weeks and no one relies on them in real time. Has reading always been this hard for you?doogie said:Yes, CDC says total deaths are 57k. Covid deaths are 38k
Table 1. Deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by week ending date, United States. Week ending 2/1/2020 to 5/2/2020.*
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Again, I ask, why do you lie when the numbers are so easily attainable?
Cases in the U.S.
Last updated on May 4, 2020
TOTAL CASES
1,152,372
29,763 New Cases*
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html -
Scotty working hard for China every day
-
Official Covid deaths vs Covid “related” deaths.
Got it -
Why does Everyone say “Covid is NOT flu”
“ Covid is Not pneumonia”
Yet here we see some CDC bureaucratic dolt deliberately sensationalizing deaths? -
Now do how many are presumed covid deaths. In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19. The numbers are cooked, Birx even admitted it.GDS said:
Those are the NCHS numbers which are based on death certificates (hence they lag by multiple weeks).GrundleStiltzkin said:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmGDS said:
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point.
Here are the CDC numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
So let's break down the fear here. Of all of the 70,000 deaths, 60% of them are in a hundred mile radius, 3,000 miles away from the West Coast. As for the rest of the country about half of the deaths originate in nursing homes. Antibody tests performed around the country and world, however flawed, have been pretty consistent that about 4% of the population has it or has had it. So considering that, we are looking at a death rate of .5% of those infected here in Merica.
The virus is dangerous in the heavily populated areas around New York and to those over 80 elsewhere. To the rest of the country and age groups, it's the flu.
The "experts" know that a vaccine isn't going to happen anytime soon and they know there are 10 times the people exposed than what has had a positive test. The "experts" have also said that the Swede Strategy was the way to go. But the unholy trinity of the Western shore continues to lie about using science as their guide to reopening, when it's clear it's about control and politics. -
More grist for your conspiracy mill: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/a-mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-even-more-contagious-than-the-original-study-says/ar-BB13CHNP?ocid=spartandhpsalemcoog said:
Now do how many are presumed covid deaths. In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19. The numbers are cooked, Birx even admitted it.GDS said:
Those are the NCHS numbers which are based on death certificates (hence they lag by multiple weeks).GrundleStiltzkin said:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmGDS said:
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point.
Here are the CDC numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
So let's break down the fear here. Of all of the 70,000 deaths, 60% of them are in a hundred mile radius, 3,000 miles away from the West Coast. As for the rest of the country about half of the deaths originate in nursing homes. Antibody tests performed around the country and world, however flawed, have been pretty consistent that about 4% of the population has it or has had it. So considering that, we are looking at a death rate of .5% of those infected here in Merica.
The virus is dangerous in the heavily populated areas around New York and to those over 80 elsewhere. To the rest of the country and age groups, it's the flu.
The "experts" know that a vaccine isn't going to happen anytime soon and they know there are 10 times the people exposed than what has had a positive test. The "experts" have also said that the Swede Strategy was the way to go. But the unholy trinity of the Western shore continues to lie about using science as their guide to reopening, when it's clear it's about control and politics. -
sure. gif
-
- "In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19." This of course is completely false. In actuality there are fewer covid deaths reported in New York than what are considered deaths above normal for the last 5 years.salemcoog said:
Now do how many are presumed covid deaths. In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19. The numbers are cooked, Birx even admitted it.GDS said:
Those are the NCHS numbers which are based on death certificates (hence they lag by multiple weeks).GrundleStiltzkin said:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmGDS said:
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point.
Here are the CDC numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
So let's break down the fear here. Of all of the 70,000 deaths, 60% of them are in a hundred mile radius, 3,000 miles away from the West Coast. As for the rest of the country about half of the deaths originate in nursing homes. Antibody tests performed around the country and world, however flawed, have been pretty consistent that about 4% of the population has it or has had it. So considering that, we are looking at a death rate of .5% of those infected here in Merica.
The virus is dangerous in the heavily populated areas around New York and to those over 80 elsewhere. To the rest of the country and age groups, it's the flu.
The "experts" know that a vaccine isn't going to happen anytime soon and they know there are 10 times the people exposed than what has had a positive test. The "experts" have also said that the Swede Strategy was the way to go. But the unholy trinity of the Western shore continues to lie about using science as their guide to reopening, when it's clear it's about control and politics.
As to the rest of your post I actually agree with most of what you posted. The death rate still seems to be somewhere between .65 and .8 heavily concentrated among the olds. Isolate the vulnerable and let the rest of us start opening things up because we can't continue this until a vaccine is widely available (if a vaccine is ever widely available). Multiple countries are getting at least elementary school kids back to school which makes a whole lotta sense considering a total of 8 people under the age of 18 have died from this thing in the US. -
I’m not a modeler so don’t listen to me. But it’s odd that they’re making conservative models now and having to adjust them up to keep the people locked in. Just keep the number of deaths high and the model will do what was intended.
In other words, modelers on day 1 said “there’s no way they’ll shutdown the economy, therefore, 2 million deaths are likely.” Then the economy does shutdown so they adjust the models for that saying 60,000 deaths. Now, “oh shit! The madmen want to go back to normal now? Better double the deaths”
Model for next year, not next month. -
Sounds scary. I am proud that you took the time to learn that viruses mutate though. Further proves my point that we won't have a vaccine for years if ever.HHusky said:
More grist for your conspiracy mill: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/a-mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-even-more-contagious-than-the-original-study-says/ar-BB13CHNP?ocid=spartandhpsalemcoog said:
Now do how many are presumed covid deaths. In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19. The numbers are cooked, Birx even admitted it.GDS said:
Those are the NCHS numbers which are based on death certificates (hence they lag by multiple weeks).GrundleStiltzkin said:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmGDS said:
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point.
Here are the CDC numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
So let's break down the fear here. Of all of the 70,000 deaths, 60% of them are in a hundred mile radius, 3,000 miles away from the West Coast. As for the rest of the country about half of the deaths originate in nursing homes. Antibody tests performed around the country and world, however flawed, have been pretty consistent that about 4% of the population has it or has had it. So considering that, we are looking at a death rate of .5% of those infected here in Merica.
The virus is dangerous in the heavily populated areas around New York and to those over 80 elsewhere. To the rest of the country and age groups, it's the flu.
The "experts" know that a vaccine isn't going to happen anytime soon and they know there are 10 times the people exposed than what has had a positive test. The "experts" have also said that the Swede Strategy was the way to go. But the unholy trinity of the Western shore continues to lie about using science as their guide to reopening, when it's clear it's about control and politics.
-
I mean, I've only done hundreds of Bayesian regressions but I'm hearing that I need to, "Shut up and listen to the experts!" in government. "It's science."UWerentThereMan said:I’m not a modeler so don’t listen to me. But it’s odd that they’re making conservative models now and having to adjust them up to keep the people locked in. Just keep the number of deaths high and the model will do what was intended.
In other words, modelers on day 1 said “there’s no way they’ll shutdown the economy, therefore, 2 million deaths are likely.” Then the economy does shutdown so they adjust the models for that saying 60,000 deaths. Now, “oh shit! The madmen want to go back to normal now? Better double the deaths”
Model for next year, not next month. -
Anywhere from 25-30,000 less people are dying each week than average, in our country since the lock down. But if you die in a Hospital in New York, there's an overwhelming chance that the COD will be COV19.GDS said:
- "In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19." This of course is completely false. In actuality there are fewer covid deaths reported in New York than what are considered deaths above normal for the last 5 years.salemcoog said:
Now do how many are presumed covid deaths. In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19. The numbers are cooked, Birx even admitted it.GDS said:
Those are the NCHS numbers which are based on death certificates (hence they lag by multiple weeks).GrundleStiltzkin said:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmGDS said:
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point.
Here are the CDC numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
So let's break down the fear here. Of all of the 70,000 deaths, 60% of them are in a hundred mile radius, 3,000 miles away from the West Coast. As for the rest of the country about half of the deaths originate in nursing homes. Antibody tests performed around the country and world, however flawed, have been pretty consistent that about 4% of the population has it or has had it. So considering that, we are looking at a death rate of .5% of those infected here in Merica.
The virus is dangerous in the heavily populated areas around New York and to those over 80 elsewhere. To the rest of the country and age groups, it's the flu.
The "experts" know that a vaccine isn't going to happen anytime soon and they know there are 10 times the people exposed than what has had a positive test. The "experts" have also said that the Swede Strategy was the way to go. But the unholy trinity of the Western shore continues to lie about using science as their guide to reopening, when it's clear it's about control and politics.
As to the rest of your post I actually agree with most of what you posted. The death rate still seems to be somewhere between .65 and .8 heavily concentrated among the olds. Isolate the vulnerable and let the rest of us start opening things up because we can't continue this until a vaccine is widely available (if a vaccine is ever widely available). Multiple countries are getting at least elementary school kids back to school which makes a whole lotta sense considering a total of 8 people under the age of 18 have died from this thing in the US. -
I think at this point, if you sneezed and a piano fell on your head, you died of the COVIDsalemcoog said:
Anywhere from 25-30,000 less people are dying each week than average, in our country since the lock down. But if you die in a Hospital in New York, there's an overwhelming chance that the COD will be COV19.GDS said:
- "In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19." This of course is completely false. In actuality there are fewer covid deaths reported in New York than what are considered deaths above normal for the last 5 years.salemcoog said:
Now do how many are presumed covid deaths. In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19. The numbers are cooked, Birx even admitted it.GDS said:
Those are the NCHS numbers which are based on death certificates (hence they lag by multiple weeks).GrundleStiltzkin said:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmGDS said:
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point.
Here are the CDC numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
So let's break down the fear here. Of all of the 70,000 deaths, 60% of them are in a hundred mile radius, 3,000 miles away from the West Coast. As for the rest of the country about half of the deaths originate in nursing homes. Antibody tests performed around the country and world, however flawed, have been pretty consistent that about 4% of the population has it or has had it. So considering that, we are looking at a death rate of .5% of those infected here in Merica.
The virus is dangerous in the heavily populated areas around New York and to those over 80 elsewhere. To the rest of the country and age groups, it's the flu.
The "experts" know that a vaccine isn't going to happen anytime soon and they know there are 10 times the people exposed than what has had a positive test. The "experts" have also said that the Swede Strategy was the way to go. But the unholy trinity of the Western shore continues to lie about using science as their guide to reopening, when it's clear it's about control and politics.
As to the rest of your post I actually agree with most of what you posted. The death rate still seems to be somewhere between .65 and .8 heavily concentrated among the olds. Isolate the vulnerable and let the rest of us start opening things up because we can't continue this until a vaccine is widely available (if a vaccine is ever widely available). Multiple countries are getting at least elementary school kids back to school which makes a whole lotta sense considering a total of 8 people under the age of 18 have died from this thing in the US.
-
Again - more bullshit. On average about 50-55k people die in the US each week. So you think the death rate has fallen by 50-60% since March...lol? I realize why you think that as again you are relying on NCHS data which lags by as much as 8 weeks but your claim is false.salemcoog said:
Anywhere from 25-30,000 less people are dying each week than average, in our country since the lock down. But if you die in a Hospital in New York, there's an overwhelming chance that the COD will be COV19.GDS said:
- "In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19." This of course is completely false. In actuality there are fewer covid deaths reported in New York than what are considered deaths above normal for the last 5 years.salemcoog said:
Now do how many are presumed covid deaths. In New York, almost every death is classified covid 19. The numbers are cooked, Birx even admitted it.GDS said:
Those are the NCHS numbers which are based on death certificates (hence they lag by multiple weeks).GrundleStiltzkin said:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htmGDS said:
They do, through 5/2, Table 1. Doesn’t mean it’s the correct number, which is the point.
Here are the CDC numbers
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
TOTAL DEATHS
67,456
1,719 New Deaths*
So let's break down the fear here. Of all of the 70,000 deaths, 60% of them are in a hundred mile radius, 3,000 miles away from the West Coast. As for the rest of the country about half of the deaths originate in nursing homes. Antibody tests performed around the country and world, however flawed, have been pretty consistent that about 4% of the population has it or has had it. So considering that, we are looking at a death rate of .5% of those infected here in Merica.
The virus is dangerous in the heavily populated areas around New York and to those over 80 elsewhere. To the rest of the country and age groups, it's the flu.
The "experts" know that a vaccine isn't going to happen anytime soon and they know there are 10 times the people exposed than what has had a positive test. The "experts" have also said that the Swede Strategy was the way to go. But the unholy trinity of the Western shore continues to lie about using science as their guide to reopening, when it's clear it's about control and politics.
As to the rest of your post I actually agree with most of what you posted. The death rate still seems to be somewhere between .65 and .8 heavily concentrated among the olds. Isolate the vulnerable and let the rest of us start opening things up because we can't continue this until a vaccine is widely available (if a vaccine is ever widely available). Multiple countries are getting at least elementary school kids back to school which makes a whole lotta sense considering a total of 8 people under the age of 18 have died from this thing in the US.
Looking strictly at NYC from March 8th to April 11th there were approximately 11,900 deaths per week above average. Of those deaths above average only 85% of them were directly linked to Covid. Based upon that it's possible (likely?) that the covid deaths in NYC are actually being undercounted at least slightly. -
My friend had his mother in law die recently. Not from the virus. But of course they listed it as a virus death. Fed money doesn't flow otherwise. His wife was livid and complained. It took two weeks to get the proper cause of death listed and they held up releasing the body for that long as well.
So if you think the numbers aren't being cooked you're daft.
If you think people won't say fuck it and accept the cause of death instead of going through all the bullshit they went through you're wrong. -
A private Idaho is it?Sledog said:My friend had his mother in law die recently. Not from the virus. But of course they listed it as a virus death. Fed money doesn't flow otherwise. His wife was livid and complained. It took two weeks to get the proper cause of death listed and they held up releasing the body for that long as well.
So if you think the numbers aren't being cooked you're daft.
If you think people won't say fuck it and accept the cause of death instead of going through all the bullshit they went through you're wrong. -
Kalifornia.HHusky said:
A private Idaho is it?Sledog said:My friend had his mother in law die recently. Not from the virus. But of course they listed it as a virus death. Fed money doesn't flow otherwise. His wife was livid and complained. It took two weeks to get the proper cause of death listed and they held up releasing the body for that long as well.
So if you think the numbers aren't being cooked you're daft.
If you think people won't say fuck it and accept the cause of death instead of going through all the bullshit they went through you're wrong. -
Scott Adams on how flu deaths are counted. Jump to 14:24Sledog said:My friend had his mother in law die recently. Not from the virus. But of course they listed it as a virus death. Fed money doesn't flow otherwise. His wife was livid and complained. It took two weeks to get the proper cause of death listed and they held up releasing the body for that long as well.
So if you think the numbers aren't being cooked you're daft.
If you think people won't say fuck it and accept the cause of death instead of going through all the bullshit they went through you're wrong.
https://youtu.be/ILzjaHrhO2c?t=864
