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Kyle Bass on China and the coronavirus
UW_Doog_Bot
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,206 
in Tug Tavern
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exASOIXH8SoComments
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I thought this was the guy in Tenacious D, but it isn't. So not watching.
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TLDW if lockdown lasts past 60 days we are FUCT. Also, reparations and/or repercussions options to deal with the CCP. Cancel treasury debt held by the CCP and laugh.
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I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.
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GrundleStiltzkin said:
I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.
At least you tried and that's what matters. -
Sooo... I was right.UW_Doog_Bot said:TLDW if lockdown lasts past 60 days we are FUCT. Also, reparations and/or repercussions options to deal with the CCP. Cancel treasury debt held by the CCP and laugh.
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So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.UW_Doog_Bot said:GrundleStiltzkin said:I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.
At least you tried and that's what matters. -
Time at which he's talking about that?GrundleStiltzkin said:
So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.UW_Doog_Bot said:GrundleStiltzkin said:I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.
At least you tried and that's what matters.
Off hand, I believe he's referring to the fact that the "assets" on the balance sheets (aka what the banks claim as the value of what they hold which includes loans and their collateral) is about 8x bigger than real gdp (which is an indicator of "real value"). Short hand you could say that debt to GDP is 8 to 1 although that's not quite the complete story.
In other words, how, without bubble-esque leverage, can the bank assets be worth that much?
Think 2008 and people taking loans out on equity of their homes which were then "valued on paper" at a high rate. All that leverage creates bubbles.
The outlier of that of course is that the CCP is behind a lot of this and HK is a financial hub so Who Fucking Knows what the reality is behind those finances. There's going to be some kind of reckoning eventually with all of these imbalances but if you know what that's going to look like then let's start a hedge fund my guy.
I wonder what @insinceredawg, @HHusky, and @BearsWiin think with their deep understanding of economics. -
Yeah, that's what I meant n stuff.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Time at which he's talking about that?GrundleStiltzkin said:
So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.UW_Doog_Bot said:GrundleStiltzkin said:I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.
At least you tried and that's what matters.
Off hand, I believe he's referring to the fact that the "assets" on the balance sheets (aka what the banks claim as the value of what they hold which includes loans and their collateral) is about 8x bigger than real gdp (which is an indicator of "real value"). Short hand you could say that debt to GDP is 8 to 1 although that's not quite the complete story.
In other words, how, without bubble-esque leverage, can the bank assets be worth that much?
Think 2008 and people taking loans out on equity of their homes which were then "valued on paper" at a high rate. All that leverage creates bubbles.
The outlier of that of course is that the CCP is behind a lot of this and HK is a financial hub so Who Fucking Knows what the reality is behind those finances. There's going to be some kind of reckoning eventually with all of these imbalances but if you know what that's going to look like then let's start a hedge fund my guy.
I wonder what @insinceredawg, @HHusky, and @BearsWiin think with their deep understanding of economics.
Honestly. -
Follow up, about the 50:30 mark Jan says, "Tell it to me like I'm five."UW_Doog_Bot said:
Time at which he's talking about that?GrundleStiltzkin said:
So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.UW_Doog_Bot said:GrundleStiltzkin said:I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.
At least you tried and that's what matters.
Off hand, I believe he's referring to the fact that the "assets" on the balance sheets (aka what the banks claim as the value of what they hold which includes loans and their collateral) is about 8x bigger than real gdp (which is an indicator of "real value"). Short hand you could say that debt to GDP is 8 to 1 although that's not quite the complete story.
In other words, how, without bubble-esque leverage, can the bank assets be worth that much?
Think 2008 and people taking loans out on equity of their homes which were then "valued on paper" at a high rate. All that leverage creates bubbles.
The outlier of that of course is that the CCP is behind a lot of this and HK is a financial hub so Who Fucking Knows what the reality is behind those finances. There's going to be some kind of reckoning eventually with all of these imbalances but if you know what that's going to look like then let's start a hedge fund my guy.
I wonder what @insinceredawg, @HHusky, and @BearsWiin think with their deep understanding of economics.
If you are leveraged at x10 times and 10% of loans go bad, that's basically a bigger overnight contraction than your entire GDP grows by in a whole year. -
I guess I'll need it like I'm 4, but I appreciated their effort.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Follow up, about the 50:30 mark Jan says, "Tell it to me like I'm five."UW_Doog_Bot said:
Time at which he's talking about that?GrundleStiltzkin said:
So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.UW_Doog_Bot said:GrundleStiltzkin said:I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.
At least you tried and that's what matters.
Off hand, I believe he's referring to the fact that the "assets" on the balance sheets (aka what the banks claim as the value of what they hold which includes loans and their collateral) is about 8x bigger than real gdp (which is an indicator of "real value"). Short hand you could say that debt to GDP is 8 to 1 although that's not quite the complete story.
In other words, how, without bubble-esque leverage, can the bank assets be worth that much?
Think 2008 and people taking loans out on equity of their homes which were then "valued on paper" at a high rate. All that leverage creates bubbles.
The outlier of that of course is that the CCP is behind a lot of this and HK is a financial hub so Who Fucking Knows what the reality is behind those finances. There's going to be some kind of reckoning eventually with all of these imbalances but if you know what that's going to look like then let's start a hedge fund my guy.
I wonder what @insinceredawg, @HHusky, and @BearsWiin think with their deep understanding of economics.
If you are leveraged at x10 times and 10% of loans go bad, that's basically a bigger overnight contraction than your entire GDP grows by in a whole year. -
And tell them they owe double that amount.UW_Doog_Bot said:TLDW if lockdown lasts past 60 days we are FUCT. Also, reparations and/or repercussions options to deal with the CCP. Cancel treasury debt held by the CCP and laugh.
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GrundleStiltzkin said:
I guess I'll need it like I'm 4, but I appreciated their effort.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Follow up, about the 50:30 mark Jan says, "Tell it to me like I'm five."UW_Doog_Bot said:
Time at which he's talking about that?GrundleStiltzkin said:
So let me if I synthesized this properly: Bass saying that HK is 8x leveraged in banking system. That means that loan value is 8 times more than current fair market value of assets.UW_Doog_Bot said:GrundleStiltzkin said:I listened to it. I didn't understand it. But it sounds pretty bad.
At least you tried and that's what matters.
Off hand, I believe he's referring to the fact that the "assets" on the balance sheets (aka what the banks claim as the value of what they hold which includes loans and their collateral) is about 8x bigger than real gdp (which is an indicator of "real value"). Short hand you could say that debt to GDP is 8 to 1 although that's not quite the complete story.
In other words, how, without bubble-esque leverage, can the bank assets be worth that much?
Think 2008 and people taking loans out on equity of their homes which were then "valued on paper" at a high rate. All that leverage creates bubbles.
The outlier of that of course is that the CCP is behind a lot of this and HK is a financial hub so Who Fucking Knows what the reality is behind those finances. There's going to be some kind of reckoning eventually with all of these imbalances but if you know what that's going to look like then let's start a hedge fund my guy.
I wonder what @insinceredawg, @HHusky, and @BearsWiin think with their deep understanding of economics.
If you are leveraged at x10 times and 10% of loans go bad, that's basically a bigger overnight contraction than your entire GDP grows by in a whole year.
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I'm halfway through the Bass interview. Lots of insight.
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YVBELoneStarDawg said:
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