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Another Pre-Season Analytic Projection

DoogCourics
DoogCourics Member Posts: 5,739
in Hardcore Husky Board
Rob Bowron enjoyed Bill Connelly's S&P+ but felt there were a few things he could improve on. He created Beta_Rank. I found it interesting so I decided I'd throw it on here for anyone interested. Think of it as the free version of the Pick Six Predictions I threw down in the WAM.

If you're interested in knowing more about it and reading how he comes up with his projections:

https://www.sharpcollegefootball.com/post/what-is-beta_rank


First, explanation of terms:









Next, our shitty offensive history:



And, our dominant defensive history:





Now, our team dashboard and schedule analysis:








Lastly, the 2019 conference comparison:






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Comments

  • DoogCourics
    DoogCourics Member Posts: 5,739
    GrundleStiltzkin said:

    Might as well not even play the games then

    Then what would I watch all fall?
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  • FremontTroll
    FremontTroll Member Posts: 4,744
    He hates us.

    Luckily his model is total garbage.

    At least preseason. Maybe it will improve although I doubt it since the returning production portion seems to be the most solid part.
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  • Arc
    Arc Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 115 Swaye's Wigwam
    GrundleStiltzkin said:

    Might as well not even play the games then

    Might as well not even talk about the team on internet forums then.
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  • DoogCourics
    DoogCourics Member Posts: 5,739
    edited August 2019
    FremontTroll said:

    He hates us.

    Luckily his model is total garbage.

    At least preseason. Maybe it will improve although I doubt it since the returning production portion seems to be the most solid part.

    Reading through his website, in season he hits 80% predictions on who will win games, but preseason projections are just below 60% hit rates. So it definitely is more accurate in season as the data begins to compile.

    He admits himself that the data skews towards returning production in his preseason models.

    Not sure exactly who he is but he does pods with the Arizona 247 mod, and he claims he is an econometrician.
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  • FremontTroll
    FremontTroll Member Posts: 4,744
    Not attacking you always appreciate you and your service.

    Looking at bad models is still interesting. Will follow it to see if it is better in-season.
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  • dtd
    dtd Member Posts: 5,326 Standard Supporter
    Returning starts has been proven to be one of the least correlated of the correlated stats(to winning).
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  • Mad_Son
    Mad_Son Member Posts: 10,194
    edited August 2019
    FremontTroll said:

    DoogCourics said:

    FremontTroll said:

    He hates us.

    Luckily his model is total garbage.

    At least preseason. Maybe it will improve although I doubt it since the returning production portion seems to be the most solid part.

    Reading through his website, in season he hits 80% predictions on who will win games.

    Not sure exactly who he is but he does pods with the Arizona 247 mod, and he claims he is an econometrician.
    If you just pick the favorite in every game you will be about 80%. The question is how he does against the spread. If he doesn’t publicize that it’s probably not good.

    Put it this way I noticed he loves Utah so I looked at one game- Utah vs. BYU.

    He has it at Utah -13.5. Spread is actually -4.5.

    If his model were correct the Kelly Criterion says that line is so far out of whack he should bet 40% of his bankroll on it.
    80% straight up is really good if it is achieved early in the season (which they of course can't). Otherwise yeah, it's about par for the course.

    http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?orderby=wpct desc&type=1&year=18

    https://hardcorehusky.com/discussion/53705/what-you-should-know-about-upsets-81-simple-facts-that-will-change-how-you-view-the-world/p1
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  • DoogCourics
    DoogCourics Member Posts: 5,739
    dtd said:

    Returning starts has been proven to be one of the least correlated of the correlated stats(to winning).

    This.

    Because I believe 40% of last year’s snaps actually return on defense since we rotate so much. That’s definitely not dead last in the country.

    Plus half the defense has started multiple games, they just were full time starters.
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  • theknowledge
    theknowledge Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,651 Founders Club
    When do we have enough blue chip players or a strong enough team philosophy to qualify for the alpha rank? DDY wants to know.
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  • FremontTroll
    FremontTroll Member Posts: 4,744
    dtd said:

    Returning starts has been proven to be one of the least correlated of the correlated stats(to winning).

    He didn’t use returning starts though.
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  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,840
    A whole thread about Beta Rank and not one person has tagged @NorwegianHusky?

    This place is slipping.
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  • GrundleStiltzkin
    GrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,516 Standard Supporter
    RuffaloSoldier said:

    Whyd post being censored?

    The Buffs

    With Coach Tucker this won't take long to get back to the Top. We're ready to win the South in this year. We have the best returning senior quaterback in the conference, Stephen Montes and the best all arounf athlete int eh league Shannalt. On defense coach Tucker speciality we have the best player too Mustapha. I will not be siurprised if we win the whole league in December. You do not know Jared Mangaham yet but you will by the end of the season. The Buffs are coming charging. This will be a great season.

    Take this shit to the HLDB
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  • GrundleStiltzkin
    GrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,516 Standard Supporter
    GrandpaSankey said:

    RuffaloSoldier said:

    Mr Saneky I saw your story on television it was very inspiring. I hope that all is well with you too.

    Mods?

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  • 89ute
    89ute Member Posts: 2,486
    RuffaloSoldier said:

    Why do you people keep 'mentioning' me? I am shocked this sight is still active.

    I thought the same thing, not about the site, but why you keep getting mentioned. Looked at some of your poasts and still think the same thing.
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  • GrundleStiltzkin
    GrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,516 Standard Supporter
    89ute said:

    RuffaloSoldier said:

    Why do you people keep 'mentioning' me? I am shocked this sight is still active.

    I thought the same thing, not about the site, but why you keep getting mentioned. Looked at some of your poasts and still think the same thing.
    Why is that you think, @RuffaloSoldier ?
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