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Another Pre-Season Analytic Projection
DoogCourics
Member Posts: 5,739
Rob Bowron enjoyed Bill Connelly's S&P+ but felt there were a few things he could improve on. He created Beta_Rank. I found it interesting so I decided I'd throw it on here for anyone interested. Think of it as the free version of the Pick Six Predictions I threw down in the WAM.
If you're interested in knowing more about it and reading how he comes up with his projections:
https://www.sharpcollegefootball.com/post/what-is-beta_rank
First, explanation of terms:
Next, our shitty offensive history:
And, our dominant defensive history:
Now, our team dashboard and schedule analysis:
Lastly, the 2019 conference comparison:
If you're interested in knowing more about it and reading how he comes up with his projections:
https://www.sharpcollegefootball.com/post/what-is-beta_rank
First, explanation of terms:
Next, our shitty offensive history:
And, our dominant defensive history:
Now, our team dashboard and schedule analysis:
Lastly, the 2019 conference comparison:
Comments
But he did say if one team in the conference could overcome that, it's UW.
Luckily his model is total garbage.
At least preseason. Maybe it will improve although I doubt it since the returning production portion seems to be the most solid part.
He admits himself that the data skews towards returning production in his preseason models.
Not sure exactly who he is but he does pods with the Arizona 247 mod, and he claims he is an econometrician.
Put it this way I noticed he loves Utah so I looked at one game- Utah vs. BYU.
He has it at Utah -13.5. Spread is actually -4.5.
If his model were correct the Kelly Criterion says that line is so far out of whack he should bet 40% of his bankroll on it.
Got me dude. I never claimed to be a @UW_Doog_Bot out here. I just find shit online I find interesting and share it here so others can see it.
I’ll take Pete’s advice and go back to the drawing board for some introspection.
Looking at bad models is still interesting. Will follow it to see if it is better in-season.
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?orderby=wpct desc&type=1&year=18
https://hardcorehusky.com/discussion/53705/what-you-should-know-about-upsets-81-simple-facts-that-will-change-how-you-view-the-world/p1
Because I believe 40% of last year’s snaps actually return on defense since we rotate so much. That’s definitely not dead last in the country.
Plus half the defense has started multiple games, they just were full time starters.
This place is slipping.
@NorwegianHusky
@RuffaloSoldier