UW Doog Bot's Proprietary Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator® Way Too Early Prediction

10-2 + P12 ship + NY6 win would be an amazing season. Does this make me a doog?

You can have some slightly different %'s for games (i.e. USC and Stanford are probably more like 50/50 games to me) ... but in the end the methodology gets you to 10-2 being the most likely outcome.

The key though for me is that from a probability standpoint, 65% of the time we're going to be 10-2 or better and anything UNDER 9 is a massive outlier.

The season really comes down to the following:

The 6 most difficult games on the schedule are in order that they show up on the schedule = Cal, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Utah, and Wazzu. 5 of those 6 are home games. Can UW go through another undefeated home season (haven't lost since 2016 to USC at home). I suspect that we'll lose a home game and that's likely needed to get to 10-2. If we run the table then you're going to be looking at 11-12 wins.

From a road game standpoint, while Oregon St and Colorado could be difficult games, something would have to be going really wrong for UW to lose either of those games. BYU isn't a super easy opponent but that program has largely regressed. We'll have to show up to win but if we do we should be able to win rather easily. That leaves the two problem child opponents for us to beat on the road ... Stanford and Arizona. I'm not sure what to make of Stanford because they lose a lot. Arizona probably worries me the most given the place that it is on the schedule and the fact that historically we've struggled against the mobile QBs that run first. It'd make sense that we lose one of these games.

Those that are projecting that we're taking a step back this year haven't been paying attention. This team will be far more talented than the 2018 team was. A 10 win season is 100% a realistic expectation. 11-1 is honestly what I expect from this team if the young players are largely what I think they are.

10-2 is a fucking failure.

We have a legit chance to be 12-0/11-1 this year. If we lose to Oregon, Pete should honestly start getting heat.

For me this year is just about 'can we grow a pair'?

We have the physical talent. We aren't in the same league with Bama yet, but Clemson wasn't either in 2016, but they had Deshaun.

The games I think of us as most likely to lose are USC, Oregon and Zona on the road.

Why these?

Zona on the road is always TUFF for us. We just don't play well on the road and black people scare us. They have one as the coach. 30% chance Pete doesn't shake his hand because he has a fear of getting mugged.

Against USC our nuts shrivel. If they are truly as dysfunctional as they seem, we can beat them. They have done us a great favor by going with a Palouse Puke offense and that could help us. But we are going to need them to completely forget they have Stephen Carr.

Oregon is just developing an alpha mentality program and I think their thugs and alpha males scare our little apple polishers. We should've crushed them last year, but we didn't and then we folded like bitches in a hilariously one sided overtime.


SIDE NOTE:
Peyton Henry has absolutely no fucking balls. The fact that he doesn't get shit on daily here is a testament to how soft this place has become.

I don't want to bash the kids, because honestly, I think his balllessness really reflects Pete's; but I don't mind giving a guy a hard time for literally not doing the one fucking thing is supposed to do.

I will comment on the worst part about his fucktarded misses after recounting them.

Let's look at his misses last year:

1. Auburn game. Great job fuckpiece. Missed 40 yarder for the lead.
2. He missed two vs. BYU. Missed from 40, MISSED FROM 24.
3. Oregon - missed from 37 yards for a win. WTF. This has really gotten too much of a pass on here. Yo man, you gotta fucking make that.
4. Missed from 38 vs. Utah to put the game (essentially) away. Nice job!

However, THE WORST part about Pete's balllessness getting injected into our kicker is that we ended up going for it a lot and turning it over on downs a lot.

This year we are going to need to fucking hit field goals.

Only Pete would be retarded enough to have a defense like ours and then trot out four years of a fucking loser QB with an overly complex offense that gives everyone brain-lock, AND never find a good kicker.

A good kicker wins us 13 games last year.

RaceBannon said:

The reason I don't rail the kicker for Oregon is that I prefer to blame the gutless head coach for being a fucking pussy

Personal preference I guess

I'm with you on that. But I want at least some abundance.

Isn't it every ableist loser kicker's dream to use their legs which god still grants them the use of in some cruel sick joke the creator has played on humanity, to kick winning field goals against rivals?

And he makes the kick where Cristobal calls a TO, then goes back out and misses the next one?

God lets you use your legs, you fucker. Make the fucking kicks.

RoadDawg55 said:

Henry isn’t good, but it’s really Pete that shrivels up. I think it rubs off. It also rubs off where he’s scared to kick a 35 yarder and goes for it on 4th and 5+. Very few, of any kickers are going to have any confidence when that is the case. You could tell how nervous he was before the missed game winner against Oregon.

That kick made me wonder about icing the kicker. In the NFL icing the kicker statistically helps the kicker out, but I imagine that in college that icing may have its intended effect, especially for kickers with lower confidence, which is definitely every UW kicker since Braunstein

RoadDawg55 said:

Henry isn’t good, but it’s really Pete that shrivels up. I think it rubs off. It also rubs off where he’s scared to kick a 35 yarder and goes for it on 4th and 5+. Very few, of any kickers are going to have any confidence when that is the case. You could tell how nervous he was before the missed game winner against Oregon.

I agree. But you still have to make the fucking kick.