If China invades Taiwan

jecornel

The economic impact worldwide would be devastating. If you are considering buying a home do you wait a couple of years to see how things play out? What type of buying decisions would make right now or avoid?

Supply chain lines through China will be rect

AtomicPiss

I hear you, but it's also a fact that we remain China's biggest customer. Their economy would take quite a hit without us.

jecornel

For long term benefit, I believe China would take the hit.

The perils of a global economy

BleachedAnusDawg

jecornel said:

The economic impact worldwide would be devastating. If you are considering buying a home do you wait a couple of years to see how things play out? What type of buying decisions would make right now or avoid?

Supply chain lines through China will be rect

If you can afford to buy a house now, buy now. Rates are going up and that will have a 30 year impact on you versus a temporary blip in the market. Long-term, housing prices would stabilize and go up and you will have equity. On a $500k loan the difference between 3.5% and 6% interest is $270,000 over the life of a 30-year loan.

BleachedAnusDawg

As far as big purchases go, I'm more concerned about inflation and rates. Wife and I have a Telluride order in and will take delivery in 2-3 months. It cannot come soon enough to get financing locked in. I'm sure 2023 model year cars will see an inflationary jump in prices, too. Looks like we will narrowly avoid both issues.

louism2wash

Your guess is as good as anyone else's at this point. I agree that interest rates would be the biggest driver in home prices but that's only if they go up. Interest rates/QE and the stock market are what's driving inflation. If any of our leaders had any balls they would jack up interest rates and slam on the brakes with QE and the market would tank and inflation would be squashed. That's what they SHOULD do.

The reality of the situation is that we've had the most accommodative monetary policy ever for the past 12 years despite there being ample reasons to tighten things up. It's created massive asset bubbles that have fueled inflation and income inequality. It was entirely predictable. for the past 5-7 years any reasonable person would have put the brakes on QE/interest rates and cooled off the economy. Why didn't they? It's because the people making those decisions have the most to gain by keeping things lax. That pressure hasn't gone away. Those people are still in charge. Paul Voelker isn't walking through that door.

My prediction is that any response from the Fed is going to be tepid as long as inflation goes down by a few percentage points. Unless inflation surprises to the upside we are going to stay in the status quo of reasonably easy money. We might let our foot off the gas but we aren't slamming on the brakes.

Once again, this bubble will pop at some point but who the fuck knows when.

jecornel

I recently just purchased, got a December order in, The January invoice was higher than December. Tried to get me to pay the difference. I said no.

YellowSnow

BleachedAnusDawg said:

As far as big purchases go, I'm more concerned about inflation and rates. Wife and I have a Telluride order in and will take delivery in 2-3 months. It cannot come soon enough to get financing locked in. I'm sure 2023 model year cars will see an inflationary jump in prices, too. Looks like we will narrowly avoid both issues.

Telluride. Cool fucking town.