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The thing about Lanning
Mad_Son
Member Posts: 10,086
in Duck Refuge
We all know most hires don't work so the odds stacked against everyone. Almost all head coaches were coordinators first and someone had to evaluate them and take a shot based on their success recruiting, developing, scheming in a different role. Sometimes a G5 takes the chance first so there is an HC résumé before a P5 goes for them. Still not a guarantee but showing success in the role, even in a lower level is a clear plus. All that being said we see potential and understand the risks.
The thing about Lanning though is that he already has a serious red flag in staying on with Georgia through the playoffs. Brian Kelly left Notre Dame with a playoff berth still in the cards because he knows there isn't a moment to waste. I would be concerned about his sense of urgency and how well he understands what is required to run a program. Maybe his involvement with Georgia will actually be negligible and he is actually hitting the ground running. The next few weeks should be very telling in terms of your next few years' trajectory. If he isn't in recruits' homes and the staff isn't filled out shortly that is a damning sign.
Not to say there isn't hope, there is a lot more to hiring a bad coach than finding someone to start the next day, but being a head coach is more than being charming and knowing x's and o's.
The thing about Lanning though is that he already has a serious red flag in staying on with Georgia through the playoffs. Brian Kelly left Notre Dame with a playoff berth still in the cards because he knows there isn't a moment to waste. I would be concerned about his sense of urgency and how well he understands what is required to run a program. Maybe his involvement with Georgia will actually be negligible and he is actually hitting the ground running. The next few weeks should be very telling in terms of your next few years' trajectory. If he isn't in recruits' homes and the staff isn't filled out shortly that is a damning sign.
Not to say there isn't hope, there is a lot more to hiring a bad coach than finding someone to start the next day, but being a head coach is more than being charming and knowing x's and o's.
Comments
Still better to take a shot than settle for Wilcucks.
Meat was a tremendous recruiter. Lanning will have an extremely difficult time matching what Meat did on that front. But in regards to in game coaching, Meat left an extremely low bar. It won't take much to improve on that front. As long as Lanning is 80%-90% what Meat was in recruiting, and is "competent" in game, then it's a net plus for Oregon. But nothing has been seen yet.
The randomness of success and the overwhelming odds in favor of failure, for everybody, is such that the market for their services is completely detached from reality. It is very clear that in Division 1 coaching, the demand side is full of irrational actors.
I’d like to hear your definition of a retread, because in my definition they’ve won most of the national titles in the last two decades.
Retreads or underachieving coach promotions to better programs have worked plenty of times. Gene Chizik was 5-19 at Iowa State, but let’s credit his national title to Cam Newton and Auburn’s pyramid bank scheme booster. Without mentioning Pete Carroll, here’s a few others who worked:
Ed Orgeron was fired after 10-25 at Ole Piss.
Meanwhile, Tommy Tuberville was 25-20 at Ole Piss and 12-20 in SEC play. At Auburn he went 85-40 (52-30 in SEC) and had a 13-0 season. But before you think it’s just Oxford and want even more Kiffin, there are others.
Mack Brown had a 53% winning percentage before Texas. He started off 2-20 at UNC and was 19-48 in his first six seasons as a head coach. At Texas he won 77% of his games.
For the first 12 of his 16 seasons at Texas it was at 83% wins with a national title. Mack rode four top-20 draft picks on the DL, plus multiple time All-Pros Jeff Saturday and Dre Bly, to two 10 win seasons, but before that he was average.
Nick Saban’s first four years at Michigan State he was 25-22-1 He coached there for five seasons, going 9-2 in the last one after those 6, 6, 7, 6 win seasons. Before that 9 win season, which was aided by Herman Ho-Fumble, his best season was 7-5, before LSU hired him to replace Gerry DiNardo.
Fun fact: DiNardo was 19-25 at Vandy before LSU hired him. His first year in 1995 LSU had their first winning record since 1988. He went 26-9-1 in his first three seasons at LSU. Shit was going so good that he opened an Italian restaurant in Baton Rouge before he was fired after two losing seasons in the midst of a third, so I’m not calling him a success but showing how a retread turned that program around. Saban’s replacement Les Miles was 16-16 in the tuff Big-12. He went 116-34 at LSU. With a title.
Lou Holththtthz was great at Arkansas, but when Notre Dame hired him he was coming off a 10-12 tenure at Minnesota.
Does Mike Riley count? 8-15 at Boov, shat out by the NFL, comes back and goes 85-65, which you know is a miracle.
Nick Saban actually made Michigan into a program. Michigan st isn’t where they are at now, without the foundation Saban made
Typically fired coaches don’t work out at new programs.