Conference play is scheduled to begin in earnest this week for Pac-12 men’s basketball, but questions linger like it’s the winter of 2020-21:
1. UCLA (8-1/1-0) NET numbers (overall/Quad I record): No. 21/2-1 Pomeroy rankings (offense/defense): No. 13/No. 18 Best case: first place Worst case: third place Comment: The Bruins have missed so much time due to COVID that rust is inevitable. But given the experience level within the core rotation and their familiarity with coach Mick Cronin’s system, it shouldn’t take long for them to ramp back to pre-pause form. One potentially bright side: Because UCLA’s exposures to the virus came largely during nonconference play, the league season could be relatively free of disruption once the Bruins are back on the floor.
2. Arizona (11-1/1-0) NET numbers (overall/Quad I record): No. 2/2-1 Pomeroy rankings (offense/defense): No. 14/No. 8 Best case: first place Worst case: third place Comment: Coach Tommy Lloyd’s system has meshed perfectly with the inherited talent. Arizona possesses size, depth and multiple high-end playmakers in Bennedict Mathurin and Azuolas Tubelis. We’re not completely sold on the three-point shooting, but there’s enough to get through conference play and the first weekend of the NCAAs. Key question: Will the Wildcats experience a COVID shutdown? If so, when? And what impact will it have on momentum?
3. USC (12-0/2-0) NET numbers (overall/Quad I record): No. 13/1-0 Pomeroy rankings (offense/defense): 26/15 Best case: second place Worst case: fourth place Comment: The Trojans are one of five undefeated teams remaining in Division I, a testament to their balanced scoring and stout defense. Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis has been as good as advertised, while Isaiah Mobley and Chevez Goodwin form perhaps the best front line in the conference. Our slight skepticism in the ultimate result is rooted in the Trojans’ soft nonconference schedule (No. 248 in the Pomeroy rankings).
6. Washington State (8-5/1-1) NET numbers (overall/Quad I record): No. 64/0-1 Pomeroy rankings (offense/defense): No. 84/No. 41 Best case: fourth place Worst case: eighth place Comment: A sizzling start to Year 2 under Kyle Smith gave way to an unseemly stretch in which the Cougars lost five out of eight — this, despite a stream of second-rate opponents. WSU should avoid the bottom tier within the conference, but its success hinges on increased consistency from behind the three-point line … or decreased reliance on the three-point line. If the combination of high volume and low efficiency continues, so will the losses.
11. Washington (5-5/0-0) NET numbers (overall/Quad I record): No. 229/0-0 Pomeroy rankings (offense/defense): No. 257/No. 86 Best case: 10th place Worst case: 12th place Comment: Meet the least efficient offense in the Power Six. The Huskies shoot under 30 percent from three-point range and average more turnovers per game than assists. If coach Mike Hopkins can squeeze incremental improvement out of his team on that end of the floor, a handful of wins could follow. (The defense has been perfectly respectable.) Will it be enough wins to save his job? The next month will be telling.
Comment: The Bruins haven’t played since Dec. 11 and won’t be on the court until Saturday, at the earliest. That’s four full weeks — they’re effectively a month behind. Too bad the NCAAs don’t start in mid-April.
2. Arizona (12-1/2-0)
Comment: The Pac-12 reportedly is attempting to reschedule the Arizona-UCLA showdown for Jan. 11 in Pauley Pavilion. It needs that game to be played somewhere, somehow, for a slew of reasons.
3. USC (12-0/2-0)
Comment: Competitive edge to the home team on Thursday. The Bears just thumped ASU, while the Trojans haven’t played since Dec. 18.
4. Colorado (9-3/1-1)
Comment: The way things are going, the CU-Washington State game will be canceled in the 0.0002 seconds between the moment we hit the publish button and the time this column is available to readers.
5. Oregon (8-6/1-2)
Comment: The NET ascent has begun in earnest for the Ducks, as we knew it would (eventually). But will it be too little, too late? There are only a handful of chances left for high-profile wins.
6. Washington State (8-5/1-1)
Comment: The Cougars have experienced little disruption compared to their peers, with only one game postponed thus far.
7. Cal (9-5/2-1)
Comment: If the Bears remain on anything close to their current pace, Mark Fox will be a lock for Pac-12 Coach of the Year. We didn’t expect them to win nine games all season.
8. Stanford (8-4/1-1)
Comment: On a COVID pause with no indication when the Cardinal will be back on the court. Could be this weekend, could be next week.
9. Utah (8-6/1-3)
Comment: Defense remains a major concern for the Utes, who couldn’t stop the Oregon schools — both shot over 50 percent from the field — and are currently No. 132 in the Pomeroy efficiency ratings on that end of the court.
10. Arizona State (5-8/1-2)
Comment: ASU’s poor performance in Berkeley shows the toll a multi-week COVID pause can take. And plenty of teams are in that position coming out of the holidays.
11. Washington (5-6/0-1)
Comment: The Huskies have played three games since Nov. 27. Unreal, and yet so real.
12. Oregon State (3-10/1-2)
Comment: That’s 74 points in the past three games for guard Jarod Lucas, who hadn’t scored 20 in any previous game this season.
Comments
1. UCLA (8-1/1-0)
NET numbers (overall/Quad I record): No. 21/2-1
Pomeroy rankings (offense/defense): No. 13/No. 18
Best case: first place
Worst case: third place
Comment: The Bruins have missed so much time due to COVID that rust is inevitable. But given the experience level within the core rotation and their familiarity with coach Mick Cronin’s system, it shouldn’t take long for them to ramp back to pre-pause form. One potentially bright side: Because UCLA’s exposures to the virus came largely during nonconference play, the league season could be relatively free of disruption once the Bruins are back on the floor.
2. Arizona (11-1/1-0)
NET numbers (overall/Quad I record): No. 2/2-1
Pomeroy rankings (offense/defense): No. 14/No. 8
Best case: first place
Worst case: third place
Comment: Coach Tommy Lloyd’s system has meshed perfectly with the inherited talent. Arizona possesses size, depth and multiple high-end playmakers in Bennedict Mathurin and Azuolas Tubelis. We’re not completely sold on the three-point shooting, but there’s enough to get through conference play and the first weekend of the NCAAs. Key question: Will the Wildcats experience a COVID shutdown? If so, when? And what impact will it have on momentum?
3. USC (12-0/2-0)
NET numbers (overall/Quad I record): No. 13/1-0
Pomeroy rankings (offense/defense): 26/15
Best case: second place
Worst case: fourth place
Comment: The Trojans are one of five undefeated teams remaining in Division I, a testament to their balanced scoring and stout defense. Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis has been as good as advertised, while Isaiah Mobley and Chevez Goodwin form perhaps the best front line in the conference. Our slight skepticism in the ultimate result is rooted in the Trojans’ soft nonconference schedule (No. 248 in the Pomeroy rankings).
6. Washington State (8-5/1-1)
NET numbers (overall/Quad I record): No. 64/0-1
Pomeroy rankings (offense/defense): No. 84/No. 41
Best case: fourth place
Worst case: eighth place
Comment: A sizzling start to Year 2 under Kyle Smith gave way to an unseemly stretch in which the Cougars lost five out of eight — this, despite a stream of second-rate opponents. WSU should avoid the bottom tier within the conference, but its success hinges on increased consistency from behind the three-point line … or decreased reliance on the three-point line. If the combination of high volume and low efficiency continues, so will the losses.
11. Washington (5-5/0-0)
NET numbers (overall/Quad I record): No. 229/0-0
Pomeroy rankings (offense/defense): No. 257/No. 86
Best case: 10th place
Worst case: 12th place
Comment: Meet the least efficient offense in the Power Six. The Huskies shoot under 30 percent from three-point range and average more turnovers per game than assists. If coach Mike Hopkins can squeeze incremental improvement out of his team on that end of the floor, a handful of wins could follow. (The defense has been perfectly respectable.) Will it be enough wins to save his job? The next month will be telling.
Oregon State 88 Utah 76 https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401377368
Game Highlights (Dec 30)
Oregon State vs Utah
Oregon 79 Utah 66 https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401377394
Game Highlights (Jan 1)
California 74 Arizona State 50 https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401398909
Game Highlights (Jan 2)
Pac 12 Power Poll
1. UCLA (8-1/1-0)
Comment: The Bruins haven’t played since Dec. 11 and won’t be on the court until Saturday, at the earliest. That’s four full weeks — they’re effectively a month behind. Too bad the NCAAs don’t start in mid-April.
2. Arizona (12-1/2-0)
Comment: The Pac-12 reportedly is attempting to reschedule the Arizona-UCLA showdown for Jan. 11 in Pauley Pavilion. It needs that game to be played somewhere, somehow, for a slew of reasons.
3. USC (12-0/2-0)
Comment: Competitive edge to the home team on Thursday. The Bears just thumped ASU, while the Trojans haven’t played since Dec. 18.
4. Colorado (9-3/1-1)
Comment: The way things are going, the CU-Washington State game will be canceled in the 0.0002 seconds between the moment we hit the publish button and the time this column is available to readers.
5. Oregon (8-6/1-2)
Comment: The NET ascent has begun in earnest for the Ducks, as we knew it would (eventually). But will it be too little, too late? There are only a handful of chances left for high-profile wins.
6. Washington State (8-5/1-1)
Comment: The Cougars have experienced little disruption compared to their peers, with only one game postponed thus far.
7. Cal (9-5/2-1)
Comment: If the Bears remain on anything close to their current pace, Mark Fox will be a lock for Pac-12 Coach of the Year. We didn’t expect them to win nine games all season.
8. Stanford (8-4/1-1)
Comment: On a COVID pause with no indication when the Cardinal will be back on the court. Could be this weekend, could be next week.
9. Utah (8-6/1-3)
Comment: Defense remains a major concern for the Utes, who couldn’t stop the Oregon schools — both shot over 50 percent from the field — and are currently No. 132 in the Pomeroy efficiency ratings on that end of the court.
10. Arizona State (5-8/1-2)
Comment: ASU’s poor performance in Berkeley shows the toll a multi-week COVID pause can take. And plenty of teams are in that position coming out of the holidays.
11. Washington (5-6/0-1)
Comment: The Huskies have played three games since Nov. 27. Unreal, and yet so real.
12. Oregon State (3-10/1-2)
Comment: That’s 74 points in the past three games for guard Jarod Lucas, who hadn’t scored 20 in any previous game this season.