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MLB 2021-22 Award Winners Announced
ChillyDawg
Member Posts: 1,469
MLB https://www.mlb.com/awards
ESPN (click for full article) https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32606357/mlb-awards-week-mvp-cy-young-rookie-year-experts-picks-results-analysis
American League MVP
Winner: Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
Final tally: Ohtani 420 (30 first-place votes); Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) 269; Marcus Semien (Blue Jays) 232; Aaron Judge (Yankees) 171; Carlos Correa (Houston Astros) 163
ESPN MLB experts' picks: Ohtani 13 votes (unanimous choice)
Bradford Doolittle's take: Despite a relatively slow finish and despite playing on a noncontender, Ohtani's season was just too historic for the voters to ignore. And, considering the unanimous vote, no one did. It was historic not just because of the novelty of Ohtani becoming the best single-season two-way player in MLB history, but for the real value he contributed in his dual role. He wasn't just good at both hitting and pitching, he was outstanding -- and the same was true of his baserunning, as well. It's ridiculous.
Among the top five AL contenders by AXE, which includes the three finalists, only Guerrero created more runs than Ohtani (144 to 122), though he also made 21 more outs in creation of those runs. However, Guerrero can't make this claim: Ohtani was also 41 runs above replacement as a pitcher and had an individual wins-above-average percentage in that role of .630, which compares favorably to the three AL Cy Young finalists. Robbie Ray, the winner, was at .657, Lance Lynn at .645 and Gerrit Cole at .630.
The magnitude of what Ohtani accomplished this season is staggering. His 156.1 AXE score is the best in baseball since Albert Pujols put up a 157.1 in 2006. It's the best by an MVP since Barry Bonds' monster 174.2 season in 2004.
Guerrero was great, but he just picked the wrong year to emerge as a superstar, at least if racking up MVPs is one of his aims. As it was, his 141.2 AXE was better than that of 56% of all players who have won an MVP award. He didn't win the honor this season, but Guerrero very much had an MVP-caliber season. Since he's just 22, it will be no surprise if there are a lot more of those to come.
Here's how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Shohei Ohtani (156.1)
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (141.2)
3. Jose Ramirez, Indians (139.0)
4. Marcus Semien (137.7)
5. Aaron Judge (137.5)
National League MVP
Winner: Bryce Harper (Phillies) (17 first-place votes)
Final tally: Harper 348 (17 first-place votes); Juan Soto, Nationals 274 (6); Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres 244 (2); Brandon Crawford, Giants 213 (4); Trea Turner, Nationals/Dodgers 185 (1)
ESPN MLB experts' picks: Harper 8, Soto 4, Tatis 1
Bradford Doolittle's take: In this race, the top contenders -- particularly the three finalists, Harper, Soto and Tatis -- were so tightly bunched that a pure metrics-based argument simply doesn't get it done. It also means it's hard to quibble about the final result: a fairly close tally in which five different players (a group that happened to also be AXE's top five) received first-place votes.
Harper would have gotten my vote, but not without a good deal of deliberation. When there is no clear distinction in the value metrics, you start looking at context and narrative. The Phillies didn't make the playoffs, but they stayed in the race as long as they did largely because of Harper's huge finish to the season, along with the work of Zack Wheeler on the mound. That context shows up in probability-added metrics: Harper led the NL in both win probability added and championship probability added.
Even in a high-powered race like this one, Harper was a deserving winner. When he won his first MVP at age 22, it seemed like he might well reel off a string of them, becoming the NL's counterpart to the AL's Mike Trout. It took a few years, but Harper now has two MVP awards before turning 30 and is building what is going to become a very strong case for Cooperstown.
Here's how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Bryce Harper (140.9)
2. Juan Soto (140.6)
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. (139.8)
4. Trea Turner (138.6)
5. Brandon Crawford (135.2)
ESPN (click for full article) https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32606357/mlb-awards-week-mvp-cy-young-rookie-year-experts-picks-results-analysis
American League MVP
Winner: Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
Final tally: Ohtani 420 (30 first-place votes); Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) 269; Marcus Semien (Blue Jays) 232; Aaron Judge (Yankees) 171; Carlos Correa (Houston Astros) 163
ESPN MLB experts' picks: Ohtani 13 votes (unanimous choice)
Bradford Doolittle's take: Despite a relatively slow finish and despite playing on a noncontender, Ohtani's season was just too historic for the voters to ignore. And, considering the unanimous vote, no one did. It was historic not just because of the novelty of Ohtani becoming the best single-season two-way player in MLB history, but for the real value he contributed in his dual role. He wasn't just good at both hitting and pitching, he was outstanding -- and the same was true of his baserunning, as well. It's ridiculous.
Among the top five AL contenders by AXE, which includes the three finalists, only Guerrero created more runs than Ohtani (144 to 122), though he also made 21 more outs in creation of those runs. However, Guerrero can't make this claim: Ohtani was also 41 runs above replacement as a pitcher and had an individual wins-above-average percentage in that role of .630, which compares favorably to the three AL Cy Young finalists. Robbie Ray, the winner, was at .657, Lance Lynn at .645 and Gerrit Cole at .630.
The magnitude of what Ohtani accomplished this season is staggering. His 156.1 AXE score is the best in baseball since Albert Pujols put up a 157.1 in 2006. It's the best by an MVP since Barry Bonds' monster 174.2 season in 2004.
Guerrero was great, but he just picked the wrong year to emerge as a superstar, at least if racking up MVPs is one of his aims. As it was, his 141.2 AXE was better than that of 56% of all players who have won an MVP award. He didn't win the honor this season, but Guerrero very much had an MVP-caliber season. Since he's just 22, it will be no surprise if there are a lot more of those to come.
Here's how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Shohei Ohtani (156.1)
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (141.2)
3. Jose Ramirez, Indians (139.0)
4. Marcus Semien (137.7)
5. Aaron Judge (137.5)
National League MVP
Winner: Bryce Harper (Phillies) (17 first-place votes)
Final tally: Harper 348 (17 first-place votes); Juan Soto, Nationals 274 (6); Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres 244 (2); Brandon Crawford, Giants 213 (4); Trea Turner, Nationals/Dodgers 185 (1)
ESPN MLB experts' picks: Harper 8, Soto 4, Tatis 1
Bradford Doolittle's take: In this race, the top contenders -- particularly the three finalists, Harper, Soto and Tatis -- were so tightly bunched that a pure metrics-based argument simply doesn't get it done. It also means it's hard to quibble about the final result: a fairly close tally in which five different players (a group that happened to also be AXE's top five) received first-place votes.
Harper would have gotten my vote, but not without a good deal of deliberation. When there is no clear distinction in the value metrics, you start looking at context and narrative. The Phillies didn't make the playoffs, but they stayed in the race as long as they did largely because of Harper's huge finish to the season, along with the work of Zack Wheeler on the mound. That context shows up in probability-added metrics: Harper led the NL in both win probability added and championship probability added.
Even in a high-powered race like this one, Harper was a deserving winner. When he won his first MVP at age 22, it seemed like he might well reel off a string of them, becoming the NL's counterpart to the AL's Mike Trout. It took a few years, but Harper now has two MVP awards before turning 30 and is building what is going to become a very strong case for Cooperstown.
Here's how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Bryce Harper (140.9)
2. Juan Soto (140.6)
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. (139.8)
4. Trea Turner (138.6)
5. Brandon Crawford (135.2)