Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.
The American Need to be Admired (by George Friedman)
AtomicPiss
Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 64,523 
in Tug Tavern
By George Friedman -August 27, 2021
GeopolitcialFutures.com
On a trip to France in 1976, I had a scholar of some repute explain to me how the Vietnam War, having cost Washington respect for both its brutality and defeat, signaled the end of U.S. global power. On a separate trip to Hungary, I had a Hungarian of no repute tell me that the Watergate scandal had exposed American democracy as a fraud. On a trip to Freiburg, a German laid out for me how the assassination of John F. Kennedy by Texas outlaws changed the nuclear balance. Hearing a Frenchman decry an American defeat, a Hungarian despair of American democracy and a German speak of thermonuclear war was a surreal experience.
I think about these trips as I think about the reactions to America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. As I see, it, Washington was trying to create a defensive line that permitted evacuees to go through and around it – a tough military problem poorly executed. President Joe Biden has been widely condemned at home for mismanaging a tactical deployment and abroad for losing respect for the United States. The criticism of U.S. tactical mistakes is fair game; being blamed is part of the job. The foreign criticism is curious. The idea that other countries base their relations with the U.S. off a bad deployment or a less-than-hermetic defensive line is a function of politics, not a reflection of reality.
And it’s hardly unique in the Biden era. Way before Donald Trump took office, for example, an agreement had been reached with NATO allies that the allies would all spend 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense. Trump wanted to redefine U.S.-European relations, so he treated the Europeans with contempt and behaved badly at meetings. The Europeans focused on what they saw as ill manners rather than on their failure to live up to their commitments. Americans opposed to Trump claimed he was destroying the trans-Atlantic relationship and, with it, the foundations of contemporary civilization. The European allies agreed. He was portrayed as reckless and dangerous, and they said he cost the United States respect and credibility.
In neither case were the critics especially correct. Americans tend to turn the failures of presidents they oppose into existential crises, and accusing him of damaging America’s standing in the world is a pretty classic example. That was the constant charge against Trump, and now that charge is being thrown at Biden. Foreign mutterings enter the system to empower a president’s enemies to claim that the sky is falling. The attempt to discredit a president or to cast doubt on the future of the United States based on how the world sees it is little more than a convenient cudgel.
This pairing would not work in most other nations. It works in the United States because it was founded as, among other things, a radical alternative to Europe. Many of its citizens came from Europe, and having left a continent that had little use for them, their families tried to make lives for themselves that they likely couldn’t have had in Europe. Deeply embedded in American history is the idea that Europe envies us. After all, in the two world wars, Europe wrecked itself while America came out stronger than ever. Washington rescued Europe with the Marshall Plan and NATO. In Europe and most of the world, almost all foreign policy meetings are held in English. Most computer programs are written in English. I believe that’s why European accusations that we are bumbling fools hurt more than we tend to acknowledge, and why politics in America can be unduly influenced by the fact that Europe no longer respects us.
In all of this, there are certain facts that are self-evident and true. The United States is the largest national economy in the world. It is the largest importer of goods in the world, and customers have more power than sellers. American innovation drives global culture. The United States invents the technology and business models that drive the world. The U.S. military is capable of fighting two wars simultaneously, and its navy controls the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. No other nation has this breadth of power. The U.S. is a great power, and for better or worse, all great powers are treated with a mixture of contempt and envy.
This is not meant to celebrate the U.S. but to point out some objective facts against which to measure Biden’s presidency and Trump’s legacy. Their enemies will condemn them. They will try to make it appear that each is incompetent and destroying everything. They will take the reasonable and make it look monstrous. They will take the trivial and try to make it appear to change the world forever. That’s how Americans play the game.
Things become more complicated, of course, when events are non-trivial. On Thursday, as many as 13 American servicemembers and 60 civilians were killed in a suicide attack executed by the Islamic State near the Kabul airport. Biden wasn’t president when the Taliban came to power, or when the U.S. decided to invade Afghanistan, or for the duration of the longest war in U.S. history. But he is president now. He made the decision to withdraw, and the blame will fall on him, just as it should. The United States is a global power, and that means it is drawn into events and crises globally. Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Iraq, Syria, Iran, Cuba, Colombia, Afghanistan. In this, the U.S. is no different from Britain and Rome. Britain had its Khartoum, Rome its Teutoburg Forest. Massive empires pay the price of power in blood and mistakes.
I know why we went into Afghanistan, but I don’t know why we stayed for 20 years, though I suspect it was politically easier to stay. I know why we demanded Europe carry out its promises on paying for NATO, but I don’t know why it’s necessary to show our contempt in the first place, though I suspect it was easier to admit we couldn’t control European decisions.
I know that all Trump supporters will be outraged by my comparing Biden to Trump, and that all Biden supporters will feel the same. So send the letters if you must, but also remember that they had something in common: They were both presidents of a very unique and enigmatic country.
GeopolitcialFutures.com
On a trip to France in 1976, I had a scholar of some repute explain to me how the Vietnam War, having cost Washington respect for both its brutality and defeat, signaled the end of U.S. global power. On a separate trip to Hungary, I had a Hungarian of no repute tell me that the Watergate scandal had exposed American democracy as a fraud. On a trip to Freiburg, a German laid out for me how the assassination of John F. Kennedy by Texas outlaws changed the nuclear balance. Hearing a Frenchman decry an American defeat, a Hungarian despair of American democracy and a German speak of thermonuclear war was a surreal experience.
I think about these trips as I think about the reactions to America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. As I see, it, Washington was trying to create a defensive line that permitted evacuees to go through and around it – a tough military problem poorly executed. President Joe Biden has been widely condemned at home for mismanaging a tactical deployment and abroad for losing respect for the United States. The criticism of U.S. tactical mistakes is fair game; being blamed is part of the job. The foreign criticism is curious. The idea that other countries base their relations with the U.S. off a bad deployment or a less-than-hermetic defensive line is a function of politics, not a reflection of reality.
And it’s hardly unique in the Biden era. Way before Donald Trump took office, for example, an agreement had been reached with NATO allies that the allies would all spend 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense. Trump wanted to redefine U.S.-European relations, so he treated the Europeans with contempt and behaved badly at meetings. The Europeans focused on what they saw as ill manners rather than on their failure to live up to their commitments. Americans opposed to Trump claimed he was destroying the trans-Atlantic relationship and, with it, the foundations of contemporary civilization. The European allies agreed. He was portrayed as reckless and dangerous, and they said he cost the United States respect and credibility.
In neither case were the critics especially correct. Americans tend to turn the failures of presidents they oppose into existential crises, and accusing him of damaging America’s standing in the world is a pretty classic example. That was the constant charge against Trump, and now that charge is being thrown at Biden. Foreign mutterings enter the system to empower a president’s enemies to claim that the sky is falling. The attempt to discredit a president or to cast doubt on the future of the United States based on how the world sees it is little more than a convenient cudgel.
This pairing would not work in most other nations. It works in the United States because it was founded as, among other things, a radical alternative to Europe. Many of its citizens came from Europe, and having left a continent that had little use for them, their families tried to make lives for themselves that they likely couldn’t have had in Europe. Deeply embedded in American history is the idea that Europe envies us. After all, in the two world wars, Europe wrecked itself while America came out stronger than ever. Washington rescued Europe with the Marshall Plan and NATO. In Europe and most of the world, almost all foreign policy meetings are held in English. Most computer programs are written in English. I believe that’s why European accusations that we are bumbling fools hurt more than we tend to acknowledge, and why politics in America can be unduly influenced by the fact that Europe no longer respects us.
In all of this, there are certain facts that are self-evident and true. The United States is the largest national economy in the world. It is the largest importer of goods in the world, and customers have more power than sellers. American innovation drives global culture. The United States invents the technology and business models that drive the world. The U.S. military is capable of fighting two wars simultaneously, and its navy controls the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. No other nation has this breadth of power. The U.S. is a great power, and for better or worse, all great powers are treated with a mixture of contempt and envy.
This is not meant to celebrate the U.S. but to point out some objective facts against which to measure Biden’s presidency and Trump’s legacy. Their enemies will condemn them. They will try to make it appear that each is incompetent and destroying everything. They will take the reasonable and make it look monstrous. They will take the trivial and try to make it appear to change the world forever. That’s how Americans play the game.
Things become more complicated, of course, when events are non-trivial. On Thursday, as many as 13 American servicemembers and 60 civilians were killed in a suicide attack executed by the Islamic State near the Kabul airport. Biden wasn’t president when the Taliban came to power, or when the U.S. decided to invade Afghanistan, or for the duration of the longest war in U.S. history. But he is president now. He made the decision to withdraw, and the blame will fall on him, just as it should. The United States is a global power, and that means it is drawn into events and crises globally. Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Iraq, Syria, Iran, Cuba, Colombia, Afghanistan. In this, the U.S. is no different from Britain and Rome. Britain had its Khartoum, Rome its Teutoburg Forest. Massive empires pay the price of power in blood and mistakes.
I know why we went into Afghanistan, but I don’t know why we stayed for 20 years, though I suspect it was politically easier to stay. I know why we demanded Europe carry out its promises on paying for NATO, but I don’t know why it’s necessary to show our contempt in the first place, though I suspect it was easier to admit we couldn’t control European decisions.
I know that all Trump supporters will be outraged by my comparing Biden to Trump, and that all Biden supporters will feel the same. So send the letters if you must, but also remember that they had something in common: They were both presidents of a very unique and enigmatic country.