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#OurJoeKent
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Let’s Fucking Go!
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I love @MikeDamone and all, but this race isn’t gonna be particularity close in November.
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Here is what my GOP guy is sayingBob_C said:I love @MikeDamone and all, but this race isn’t gonna be particularity close in November.
"I'm hearing that some Democrats are getting giddy at the prospect of electing their Bernie Sanders-type candidate Perez if Joe Kent overtakes Congresswoman Herrera for the second runoff spot in November for Washington's 3rd CD.
I don't think so. Trump won the 3rd by 5% and that understates its Republican leaning. Remember that Republican Loren Culp, ran about 5% better than Trump in 2020 for Governor. Let's just say Culp was not a strong candidate. But the governor race attracted less attention, was not considered competitive, so people tended to vote more on party lines.
There are two countervailing trends going on in the 3rd. The urban areas of Clark County seem to be moving to the D's---you can see it in the robust numbers D candidates in the 17th and 18th legislative districts got on Tuesday (probably not enough to win the seats this year). In the rural areas of Clark and the rest of the counties in the 3rd, Democrats are basically in collapse which outweighs the 17th and 18th trends. The 49th looks more stagnant or frozen. I guess it's the working class white/hispanic Republican trend there offsetting the urban D trends.
Kent, if he ends up advancing, should hold the district in 2022 and 24 which look to be Republican years. If Republicans win the White House in 2024, partisan winds could change and he might run into trouble down the road."
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Time value of money and shit, I’m willing sacrifice 26 for 22.MikeDamone said:
Here is what my GOP guy is sayingBob_C said:I love @MikeDamone and all, but this race isn’t gonna be particularity close in November.
"I'm hearing that some Democrats are getting giddy at the prospect of electing their Bernie Sanders-type candidate Perez if Joe Kent overtakes Congresswoman Herrera for the second runoff spot in November for Washington's 3rd CD.
I don't think so. Trump won the 3rd by 5% and that understates its Republican leaning. Remember that Republican Loren Culp, ran about 5% better than Trump in 2020 for Governor. Let's just say Culp was not a strong candidate. But the governor race attracted less attention, was not considered competitive, so people tended to vote more on party lines.
There are two countervailing trends going on in the 3rd. The urban areas of Clark County seem to be moving to the D's---you can see it in the robust numbers D candidates in the 17th and 18th legislative districts got on Tuesday (probably not enough to win the seats this year). In the rural areas of Clark and the rest of the counties in the 3rd, Democrats are basically in collapse which outweighs the 17th and 18th trends. The 49th looks more stagnant or frozen. I guess it's the working class white/hispanic Republican trend there offsetting the urban D trends.
Kent, if he ends up advancing, should hold the district in 2022 and 24 which look to be Republican years. If Republicans win the White House in 2024, partisan winds could change and he might run into trouble down the road." -
If the district did go blue this year it's going to be a long time before it goes red again. It won't be a one term and done as lonestar asserted. The data says Kent will win though.Bob_C said:
Time value of money and shit, I’m willing sacrifice 26 for 22.MikeDamone said:
Here is what my GOP guy is sayingBob_C said:I love @MikeDamone and all, but this race isn’t gonna be particularity close in November.
"I'm hearing that some Democrats are getting giddy at the prospect of electing their Bernie Sanders-type candidate Perez if Joe Kent overtakes Congresswoman Herrera for the second runoff spot in November for Washington's 3rd CD.
I don't think so. Trump won the 3rd by 5% and that understates its Republican leaning. Remember that Republican Loren Culp, ran about 5% better than Trump in 2020 for Governor. Let's just say Culp was not a strong candidate. But the governor race attracted less attention, was not considered competitive, so people tended to vote more on party lines.
There are two countervailing trends going on in the 3rd. The urban areas of Clark County seem to be moving to the D's---you can see it in the robust numbers D candidates in the 17th and 18th legislative districts got on Tuesday (probably not enough to win the seats this year). In the rural areas of Clark and the rest of the counties in the 3rd, Democrats are basically in collapse which outweighs the 17th and 18th trends. The 49th looks more stagnant or frozen. I guess it's the working class white/hispanic Republican trend there offsetting the urban D trends.
Kent, if he ends up advancing, should hold the district in 2022 and 24 which look to be Republican years. If Republicans win the White House in 2024, partisan winds could change and he might run into trouble down the road." -
Praise AllahMikeDamone said:
If the district did go blue this year it's going to be a long time before it goes red again. It won't be a one term and done as lonestar asserted. The data says Kent will win though.Bob_C said:
Time value of money and shit, I’m willing sacrifice 26 for 22.MikeDamone said:
Here is what my GOP guy is sayingBob_C said:I love @MikeDamone and all, but this race isn’t gonna be particularity close in November.
"I'm hearing that some Democrats are getting giddy at the prospect of electing their Bernie Sanders-type candidate Perez if Joe Kent overtakes Congresswoman Herrera for the second runoff spot in November for Washington's 3rd CD.
I don't think so. Trump won the 3rd by 5% and that understates its Republican leaning. Remember that Republican Loren Culp, ran about 5% better than Trump in 2020 for Governor. Let's just say Culp was not a strong candidate. But the governor race attracted less attention, was not considered competitive, so people tended to vote more on party lines.
There are two countervailing trends going on in the 3rd. The urban areas of Clark County seem to be moving to the D's---you can see it in the robust numbers D candidates in the 17th and 18th legislative districts got on Tuesday (probably not enough to win the seats this year). In the rural areas of Clark and the rest of the counties in the 3rd, Democrats are basically in collapse which outweighs the 17th and 18th trends. The 49th looks more stagnant or frozen. I guess it's the working class white/hispanic Republican trend there offsetting the urban D trends.
Kent, if he ends up advancing, should hold the district in 2022 and 24 which look to be Republican years. If Republicans win the White House in 2024, partisan winds could change and he might run into trouble down the road."
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Pay the players and win now. Worry about probation after the parade
