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Daily Memo: Japanese Support for Taiwan, North Korean Warnings for Seoul and more...
AtomicPiss
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By: Geopolitical Futures
Support for Taiwan. Japan’s defense minister over the weekend called for greater international attention on the “survival of Taiwan,” warning that China is working to envelop the self-ruled island. Japan, traditionally circumspect about cross-strait relations, has taken a number of conspicuous steps in the past month or so in support of Taiwan. This is because a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a direct threat to Japan. We’re watching for hints of tangible support.
Pyongyang's awakening. North Korea might be peaking out of its shell. The country has spent much of the past year overwhelmingly inward-looking, and internal pressures still aren’t going away. But Pyongyang is starting to become more active on the internal front. Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, on Sunday warned that upcoming U.S.-South Korean drills would threaten the nascent detent between Seoul and Pyongyang. Seoul appears deeply divided about whether to move forward with the drills, which Pyongyang sees as indistinguishable from preparations for an invasion. The U.S., meanwhile, seized a Singaporean oil tanker suspected of evading international sanctions on the North.
Iran to blame. British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said Iran was likely responsible for last Thursday’s drone attack on the Mercer Street oil tanker off the coast of Oman – which killed one British and one Romanian citizen. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. was also confident Iran was behind the attack. Israel last week likewise blamed Iran for the incident.
Banking system resilience. A stress test conducted by the European Banking Authority found that the EU's 50 biggest banks would lose 265 billion euros ($315 billion), and a third of their buffers, in an economic shock. The test showed that all of Italy’s Monte dei Paschi bank’s assets would be wiped out. Germany’s Deutsch Bank and Commerzbank also performed poorly.
Help for Chinese firms. China’s central government created a $32.5 billion fund to help state-owned companies avoid default and to ease financial burdens on regional governments. The fund targets companies not directly run by the central government, aiming to improve market confidence in the firms.
COVID-19 protests. Protests against mandatory COVID-19 safety measures erupted in Paris and other French cities for the third consecutive weekend. According to figures from the French Interior Ministry, more than 200,000 people demonstrated across the country. Similar protests were also held in Berlin, where demonstrators clashed with police.
Lobbying for change. The administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development, Samantha Power, on Sunday arrived in Darfur to meet with Sudan’s transitional government. She will also travel to Ethiopia to press the government there and Tigrayan forces to allow unrestricted humanitarian access to the Tigray region.
Russian mercenaries in Africa. Nigeria is considering deploying forces from Russian security firm the Wagner Group to help combat militants from the Islamic State of West African Provinces, a group linked to the Islamic State and which is active in Nigeria's northeast. This comes after U.S lawmakers recently declined to approve the sale of military aircraft to Nigeria citing human rights concerns.
Russian support. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over the weekend. They discussed bilateral relations, and Putin offered Russia’s support in fighting the wildfires that have swept through southern Turkey.
Russia's joint drills. Russia and Uzbekistan began joint exercises in Uzbekistan’s Surkhandarya region, near the Afghan border. About 1,500 troops are taking part. Russia will also conduct joint drills with Tajikistan on Aug.5-10.
Support for Taiwan. Japan’s defense minister over the weekend called for greater international attention on the “survival of Taiwan,” warning that China is working to envelop the self-ruled island. Japan, traditionally circumspect about cross-strait relations, has taken a number of conspicuous steps in the past month or so in support of Taiwan. This is because a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a direct threat to Japan. We’re watching for hints of tangible support.
Pyongyang's awakening. North Korea might be peaking out of its shell. The country has spent much of the past year overwhelmingly inward-looking, and internal pressures still aren’t going away. But Pyongyang is starting to become more active on the internal front. Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, on Sunday warned that upcoming U.S.-South Korean drills would threaten the nascent detent between Seoul and Pyongyang. Seoul appears deeply divided about whether to move forward with the drills, which Pyongyang sees as indistinguishable from preparations for an invasion. The U.S., meanwhile, seized a Singaporean oil tanker suspected of evading international sanctions on the North.
Iran to blame. British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said Iran was likely responsible for last Thursday’s drone attack on the Mercer Street oil tanker off the coast of Oman – which killed one British and one Romanian citizen. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. was also confident Iran was behind the attack. Israel last week likewise blamed Iran for the incident.
Banking system resilience. A stress test conducted by the European Banking Authority found that the EU's 50 biggest banks would lose 265 billion euros ($315 billion), and a third of their buffers, in an economic shock. The test showed that all of Italy’s Monte dei Paschi bank’s assets would be wiped out. Germany’s Deutsch Bank and Commerzbank also performed poorly.
Help for Chinese firms. China’s central government created a $32.5 billion fund to help state-owned companies avoid default and to ease financial burdens on regional governments. The fund targets companies not directly run by the central government, aiming to improve market confidence in the firms.
COVID-19 protests. Protests against mandatory COVID-19 safety measures erupted in Paris and other French cities for the third consecutive weekend. According to figures from the French Interior Ministry, more than 200,000 people demonstrated across the country. Similar protests were also held in Berlin, where demonstrators clashed with police.
Lobbying for change. The administrator for the U.S. Agency for International Development, Samantha Power, on Sunday arrived in Darfur to meet with Sudan’s transitional government. She will also travel to Ethiopia to press the government there and Tigrayan forces to allow unrestricted humanitarian access to the Tigray region.
Russian mercenaries in Africa. Nigeria is considering deploying forces from Russian security firm the Wagner Group to help combat militants from the Islamic State of West African Provinces, a group linked to the Islamic State and which is active in Nigeria's northeast. This comes after U.S lawmakers recently declined to approve the sale of military aircraft to Nigeria citing human rights concerns.
Russian support. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over the weekend. They discussed bilateral relations, and Putin offered Russia’s support in fighting the wildfires that have swept through southern Turkey.
Russia's joint drills. Russia and Uzbekistan began joint exercises in Uzbekistan’s Surkhandarya region, near the Afghan border. About 1,500 troops are taking part. Russia will also conduct joint drills with Tajikistan on Aug.5-10.