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China’s Growing Role in Central Asia (Geopolitical Futures)
AtomicPiss
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Background: Over a relatively short period, China has strengthened its position in Central Asia, becoming a key trading partner and investor in what is historically Russia’s sphere of influence. China’s success raises questions about Russian influence in the region.
What Happened: Accumulated Chinese investment in Tajikistan surpassed $3.15 billion at the end of 2020, which is 35.5 percent of the total volume of foreign investment in the country and nearly double Russia’s investment ($1.6 billion), the Tajik state investment committee said. Significant inflows of Chinese investment to Tajikistan really began only about a decade ago. Meanwhile, the Kyrgyz government turned to China to ask for help restoring infrastructure and social facilities in its southwestern Batken region.
On May 12, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan at the second 5+1 summit, where he called for the countries to find new avenues for regional cooperation. On the same day, Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Ministry announced that China was offering it a $54 million grant, plus 150,000 free COVID-19 vaccine doses and payment deferrals on Kyrgyz debt to China.
Bottom Line: After a lull last year, China is again emphasizing relations with Central Asia. This may worry Russia, which is in the midst of its own campaign to woo Central Asia but which can’t match China’s ability to provide financial assistance. Moscow may instead try to promote the advantages of membership in its regional integration project, the Eurasian Economic Union, while trying to avoid a direct confrontation with Beijing.
What Happened: Accumulated Chinese investment in Tajikistan surpassed $3.15 billion at the end of 2020, which is 35.5 percent of the total volume of foreign investment in the country and nearly double Russia’s investment ($1.6 billion), the Tajik state investment committee said. Significant inflows of Chinese investment to Tajikistan really began only about a decade ago. Meanwhile, the Kyrgyz government turned to China to ask for help restoring infrastructure and social facilities in its southwestern Batken region.
On May 12, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan at the second 5+1 summit, where he called for the countries to find new avenues for regional cooperation. On the same day, Kyrgyzstan’s Foreign Ministry announced that China was offering it a $54 million grant, plus 150,000 free COVID-19 vaccine doses and payment deferrals on Kyrgyz debt to China.
Bottom Line: After a lull last year, China is again emphasizing relations with Central Asia. This may worry Russia, which is in the midst of its own campaign to woo Central Asia but which can’t match China’s ability to provide financial assistance. Moscow may instead try to promote the advantages of membership in its regional integration project, the Eurasian Economic Union, while trying to avoid a direct confrontation with Beijing.