The market is the market. Cars cost what they’re worth, today.
Barring a GOP sweep in 2024, the new and used car markets will feature tight supply and high prices. Does everyone forget “no new internal combustion engine cars by 2030?”
Cars are inflated due to a major lack of new supply right now. That's not going to continue forever, regardless of ICE or electric vehicles being built. "New-Used" cars are selling for more than what brand new cars sticker for right now because there is no new inventory. Temporary phenomenon unless cars have become an appreciating asset.
Lol and you think this sudden “chip shortage” is going away?
They don’t want you driving. Face the fucking facts. The market IS the market. Cars are worth exactly what they are worth. If you want to wait it out with fingers crossed that the market will suddenly change and fall your way, go for it. It’s part of what makes a market.
The market is the market. Cars cost what they’re worth, today.
Barring a GOP sweep in 2024, the new and used car markets will feature tight supply and high prices. Does everyone forget “no new internal combustion engine cars by 2030?”
Cars are inflated due to a major lack of new supply right now. That's not going to continue forever, regardless of ICE or electric vehicles being built. "New-Used" cars are selling for more than what brand new cars sticker for right now because there is no new inventory. Temporary phenomenon unless cars have become an appreciating asset.
Lol and you think this sudden “chip shortage” is going away?
They don’t want you driving. Face the fucking facts. The market IS the market. Cars are worth exactly what they are worth. If you want to wait it out with fingers crossed that the market will suddenly change and fall your way, go for it. It’s part of what makes a market.
Well I don't think the internal combustion engine is wrong and I think the majority would agree with me
We can disagree
If and when the technology is widely available and the car is as good or better than now go for it. If you have to mandate it without any kind of approval that raises a question IMO
It does appear that we agree that you can't just throw a date out there and expect the good fairy to make it happen. That's why I think it is more political than practical. Certainly it speaks to you and many fine people like you
I think all but very few people would agree with you. I agree with you. You forget that I'm a petrol head who majored in vehicle design, tracks a 200 hp motorcycle, has taken apart and rebuilt many internal combustion engines (sometimes on my dining room table when my wife is out of town...). I also like flying from time to time, and we're a long ways away from something that'll replace kerosene and a nice, big turbine.
Which is why I'm torn on this whole deadline. On the one hand, there are use cases where batteries currently don't make sense and are likely to still not make sense in a shy decade. Towing a boat or RV, for instance. Activities that are constantly energy intense and can't be made up for by just carrying a fuckton of fuel like a full size truck does. Then again, from what I've read, the ban would only apply to light vehicles and trucks may be exempt. (So, what, everyone just starts driving gigantic trucks to get around the ban? How is that better?)
On the other hand, for the VAST number of use cases, batteries are objectively better. You drive to work very cheaply, quietly, smoothly, (and with shitloads of torque on tap, so bonus), then you come home, plug your car in, and never have to stop at a gas station and waste five minutes of your day again. This would be most people 99% of the time. They would fucking love it within a couple of months, they just don't know it yet and refuse to believe it. "Oh, my car would be just like my phone? Huh, I love my phone!"
So what do you do? On the one hand, a hard mandate seems heavy handed and counterproductive to efficiency in certain use cases. On the other hand, there is little to no motivation for change if the mandate is in place. It's like with the vaccines: light a fire under an industry's ass, and it's amazing what can be accomplished in relatively short time.
This is a subject I'm fairly passionate about, so I'll just leave it there before rambling on for too long. I'll just sum up by saying I love gas engines. I love building them, modifying them, tuning them, riding things that are powered by them. I just love electric motors even more for certain things that I and most people do 99% of the time (hell, even the best dirt bike I've ever ridden was electric, but the company went out of business before economies of scale could bring the price down to a realistic point).
I just read an article yesterday that said the world doesn't have enough precious metal materials to meet government demands that ICE vehicles be regulated out of existence.
You cannot mandate EV's because they are way too expensive compared to equivalent ICE vehicles, for now. I think the majority of Americans would pick an EV over ICE if the car was the same and the costs were the same or less for the EV. We are not close to that point yet, so having a deadline 9 years from now in WA State is nothing more than political pandering. Maybe it turns up the wick on manufacturers, but they're already going balls out to switch to EV's.
The market is the market. Cars cost what they’re worth, today.
Barring a GOP sweep in 2024, the new and used car markets will feature tight supply and high prices. Does everyone forget “no new internal combustion engine cars by 2030?”
Cars are inflated due to a major lack of new supply right now. That's not going to continue forever, regardless of ICE or electric vehicles being built. "New-Used" cars are selling for more than what brand new cars sticker for right now because there is no new inventory. Temporary phenomenon unless cars have become an appreciating asset.
Lol and you think this sudden “chip shortage” is going away?
They don’t want you driving. Face the fucking facts. The market IS the market. Cars are worth exactly what they are worth. If you want to wait it out with fingers crossed that the market will suddenly change and fall your way, go for it. It’s part of what makes a market.
The chips didn't "go away." Car manufacturing ground to a halt during the initial COVID wave and most car manufacturers, in their infinite wisdom, decided to stop buying chips during that time. Other electronics manufacturers gladly took that extra supply to guarantee their supply chain stayed in tact. Now the car manufacturers are trying to play catch up. What sense does it make for the car manufacturers to deliberately slow down production so that their consumers can't buy vehicles. Building cars is their business of making money!
If you think the current used car market is here to stay by all means buy high and be disappointed when your over-inflated used car drops by 20% in one year.
Also, I already bought my car in February because I saw the writing on the wall so none of this impacts me at all.
The market is the market. Cars cost what they’re worth, today.
Barring a GOP sweep in 2024, the new and used car markets will feature tight supply and high prices. Does everyone forget “no new internal combustion engine cars by 2030?”
Cars are inflated due to a major lack of new supply right now. That's not going to continue forever, regardless of ICE or electric vehicles being built. "New-Used" cars are selling for more than what brand new cars sticker for right now because there is no new inventory. Temporary phenomenon unless cars have become an appreciating asset.
Lol and you think this sudden “chip shortage” is going away?
They don’t want you driving. Face the fucking facts. The market IS the market. Cars are worth exactly what they are worth. If you want to wait it out with fingers crossed that the market will suddenly change and fall your way, go for it. It’s part of what makes a market.
The chips didn't "go away." Car manufacturing ground to a halt during the initial COVID wave and most car manufacturers, in their infinite wisdom, decided to stop buying chips during that time. Other electronics manufacturers gladly took that extra supply to guarantee their supply chain stayed in tact. Now the car manufacturers are trying to play catch up. What sense does it make for the car manufacturers to deliberately slow down production so that their consumers can't buy vehicles. Building cars is their business of making money!
If you think the current used car market is here to stay by all means buy high and be disappointed when your over-inflated used car drops by 20% in one year.
Also, I already bought my car in February because I saw the writing on the wall so none of this impacts me at all.
No it’s that (((they))) don’t want you driving or some other unhinged nutter bullshit
I just read an article yesterday that said the world doesn't have enough precious metal materials to meet government demands that ICE vehicles be regulated out of existence.
You cannot mandate EV's because they are way too expensive compared to equivalent ICE vehicles, for now. I think the majority of Americans would pick an EV over ICE if the car was the same and the costs were the same or less for the EV. We are not close to that point yet, so having a deadline 9 years from now in WA State is nothing more than political pandering. Maybe it turns up the wick on manufacturers, but they're already going balls out to switch to EV's.
I read the article, and it didn't seem to say that at all. It was all about the battle between two camps of "environmentalists," one that wants to protect habitats and the other who wants to get ICE cars off the road. It was focused completely on the U.S. domestic mining market (to weaken reliance on China for rare earths, lithium, and copper), and only said that current mining capacity couldn't get it done. The implication was that there is enough material in the ground (enough for 5 million batteries and copper for more than 10,000 EVs per year). Looks like copper is the real problem, as proposed copper mines are more likely to run into environmental opposition. And this is where just throwing down a deadline without any discussion of how you're going to get there is a big mistake. Your example of untapped mines and environmental red tape is exactly the kind of problem a serious policy would take on and solve.
Purchase price for EVs is high, but TCO is already close to on par for certain models (even unsubisdized). This improves as more models are released from more manufacturer. Bloomberg predicts that by 2030, cost per kWh will be below $60, making EVs cheaper to build/sell than ICE counterparts. They don't have to be cheaper, either, just close enough that the reduced maintenance and fuel cost lead to breakeven over time.
Totally disagree. Consumer demand is driving the change to EV's now.
Maybe you're right, I don't know. I haven't looked into national or global data for demand for BEVs, only looked around the parking lot at work. The company installed three charging stations a couple of years ago. Right before they installed the chargers, my Ol' Faithful BMW made it clear it was on its last leg (275K), so I bought a Volt because a spreadsheet exercise suggested it would be the cheapest thing I could buy and own (Chevy still had the subsidy). My shop wasn't built yet, so I had no way to install a level 2 charger, and level 1 charging wouldn't get me to work and back, so had to be hybrid. Had the company installed the chargers a few months sooner, I might have bought a Bolt (even though they look like rolling suppositories like most BEVs...). Anyway, I had one of two plug-ins at the whole place (roughly 700 full time employees) when those chargers went in. Now, there are two Leafs, two Tesla 3s, a Bolt, a Fiat 500e, and me. We have to trade off on the chargers depending on who's there each day.
For a while I thought, "Man, this is a lot of EVs at an oil refinery!" The more I think about it, though, it's really not. It's about 1% (less when you look into the contractor lot), and it's leveled off over the past year or so. And it's not like nobody there can afford one; the rest of the lot is mostly full of $70K+ trucks with lifts and wheels and exhausts, Porsches, luxury sedans, two new Corvettes. Hell, there's even a GT-R. I could see there being more demand in coastal big cities, I guess.
I just read an article yesterday that said the world doesn't have enough precious metal materials to meet government demands that ICE vehicles be regulated out of existence.
You cannot mandate EV's because they are way too expensive compared to equivalent ICE vehicles, for now. I think the majority of Americans would pick an EV over ICE if the car was the same and the costs were the same or less for the EV. We are not close to that point yet, so having a deadline 9 years from now in WA State is nothing more than political pandering. Maybe it turns up the wick on manufacturers, but they're already going balls out to switch to EV's.
I read the article, and it didn't seem to say that at all. It was all about the battle between two camps of "environmentalists," one that wants to protect habitats and the other who wants to get ICE cars off the road. It was focused completely on the U.S. domestic mining market (to weaken reliance on China for rare earths, lithium, and copper), and only said that current mining capacity couldn't get it done. The implication was that there is enough material in the ground (enough for 5 million batteries and copper for more than 10,000 EVs per year). Looks like copper is the real problem, as proposed copper mines are more likely to run into environmental opposition. And this is where just throwing down a deadline without any discussion of how you're going to get there is a big mistake. Your example of untapped mines and environmental red tape is exactly the kind of problem a serious policy would take on and solve.
Purchase price for EVs is high, but TCO is already close to on par for certain models (even unsubisdized). This improves as more models are released from more manufacturer. Bloomberg predicts that by 2030, cost per kWh will be below $60, making EVs cheaper to build/sell than ICE counterparts. They don't have to be cheaper, either, just close enough that the reduced maintenance and fuel cost lead to breakeven over time.
Totally disagree. Consumer demand is driving the change to EV's now.
Maybe you're right, I don't know. I haven't looked into national or global data for demand for BEVs, only looked around the parking lot at work. The company installed three charging stations a couple of years ago. Right before they installed the chargers, my Ol' Faithful BMW made it clear it was on its last leg (275K), so I bought a Volt because a spreadsheet exercise suggested it would be the cheapest thing I could buy and own (Chevy still had the subsidy). My shop wasn't built yet, so I had no way to install a level 2 charger, and level 1 charging wouldn't get me to work and back, so had to be hybrid. Had the company installed the chargers a few months sooner, I might have bought a Bolt (even though they look like rolling suppositories like most BEVs...). Anyway, I had one of two plug-ins at the whole place (roughly 700 full time employees) when those chargers went in. Now, there are two Leafs, two Tesla 3s, a Bolt, a Fiat 500e, and me. We have to trade off on the chargers depending on who's there each day.
For a while I thought, "Man, this is a lot of EVs at an oil refinery!" The more I think about it, though, it's really not. It's about 1% (less when you look into the contractor lot), and it's leveled off over the past year or so. And it's not like nobody there can afford one; the rest of the lot is mostly full of $70K+ trucks with lifts and wheels and exhausts, Porsches, luxury sedans, two new Corvettes. Hell, there's even a GT-R. I could see there being more demand in coastal big cities, I guess.
That article I linked was not the one I read, but had some of the info in it about resources needed, etc. I agree that the writing is on the wall for ICE's, but my problem with that only lies on if it's at the hand of the government rather than the free market.
I think there is pent-up demand for EV's that is just waiting for better choice of product and prices in-line with ICE's. The rest of the decade will sort that our pretty quickly. I've already seen a few Mach-E's driving around and those still are not what you would call a regular, affordable car.
I think there is pent-up demand for EV's that is just waiting for better choice of product and prices in-line with ICE's. The rest of the decade will sort that our pretty quickly. I've already seen a few Mach-E's driving around and those still are not what you would call a regular, affordable car.
Amen to this. I think (although this is changing fast) many automakers are still targeting the "look at me: I'm green!" crowd when it comes to the EVs in their lineup. It's not about just being an EV, it's about it standing out as such. As a result, many EVs still look like rolling suppositories. There's nothing wrong with an EV looking like a regular ol' car, with the benefit being the efficiency and drive train. There's a market for that, as Tesla's proving. They'll get there.
Comments
They don’t want you driving. Face the fucking facts. The market IS the market. Cars are worth exactly what they are worth. If you want to wait it out with fingers crossed that the market will suddenly change and fall your way, go for it. It’s part of what makes a market.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-mining-insight/to-go-electric-america-needs-more-mines-can-it-build-them-idUSKCN2AT39Z
You cannot mandate EV's because they are way too expensive compared to equivalent ICE vehicles, for now. I think the majority of Americans would pick an EV over ICE if the car was the same and the costs were the same or less for the EV. We are not close to that point yet, so having a deadline 9 years from now in WA State is nothing more than political pandering. Maybe it turns up the wick on manufacturers, but they're already going balls out to switch to EV's.
If you think the current used car market is here to stay by all means buy high and be disappointed when your over-inflated used car drops by 20% in one year.
Also, I already bought my car in February because I saw the writing on the wall so none of this impacts me at all.
Purchase price for EVs is high, but TCO is already close to on par for certain models (even unsubisdized). This improves as more models are released from more manufacturer. Bloomberg predicts that by 2030, cost per kWh will be below $60, making EVs cheaper to build/sell than ICE counterparts. They don't have to be cheaper, either, just close enough that the reduced maintenance and fuel cost lead to breakeven over time.
Maybe you're right, I don't know. I haven't looked into national or global data for demand for BEVs, only looked around the parking lot at work. The company installed three charging stations a couple of years ago. Right before they installed the chargers, my Ol' Faithful BMW made it clear it was on its last leg (275K), so I bought a Volt because a spreadsheet exercise suggested it would be the cheapest thing I could buy and own (Chevy still had the subsidy). My shop wasn't built yet, so I had no way to install a level 2 charger, and level 1 charging wouldn't get me to work and back, so had to be hybrid. Had the company installed the chargers a few months sooner, I might have bought a Bolt (even though they look like rolling suppositories like most BEVs...). Anyway, I had one of two plug-ins at the whole place (roughly 700 full time employees) when those chargers went in. Now, there are two Leafs, two Tesla 3s, a Bolt, a Fiat 500e, and me. We have to trade off on the chargers depending on who's there each day.
For a while I thought, "Man, this is a lot of EVs at an oil refinery!" The more I think about it, though, it's really not. It's about 1% (less when you look into the contractor lot), and it's leveled off over the past year or so. And it's not like nobody there can afford one; the rest of the lot is mostly full of $70K+ trucks with lifts and wheels and exhausts, Porsches, luxury sedans, two new Corvettes. Hell, there's even a GT-R. I could see there being more demand in coastal big cities, I guess.
I think there is pent-up demand for EV's that is just waiting for better choice of product and prices in-line with ICE's. The rest of the decade will sort that our pretty quickly. I've already seen a few Mach-E's driving around and those still are not what you would call a regular, affordable car.