“In the Pacific Northwest, the Oregon Ducks look to repeat as conference champions. (I know, I know, it was a weird season.) They'll bring back five experienced linemen on offense, and plenty of weapons—running back Travis Dye averaged 6-plus yards per carry last season with a 32% first-down rate, and USC transfer receiver Devon Williams will return as the Ducks' top target. Oregon's quarterback situation, though, exposes the beauty of the Returning Talent Index. In just looking at returning production, one would see Oregon losing quarterback Tyler Shough (0.24 EPA/attempt, 47.1% success rate, and 39% first-down rate in the passing game) and see a vacuum. Shough transferred to Texas Tech (58th in the RTI) in part because Oregon is bringing in four-star Ty Thompson, who should have the starting job when camp breaks.“
A 2-7 football team last year is in the top 20 in this metric! A 4-3 football team is the second best in the country! Great work football outsiders!
This isn’t a ranking of the best teams in the country. It’s not saying LSU will be better than Bama or Washington has more talent than Ohio State.
Most predictive analytics use some variant of a formula to calculate returning production and/or talent. This one is combined and allows them to write an article, make some graphs, and have people like DJDuck be happy because they don’t understand the concept. Although DJ is several deviations from the mean, three if I remember correctly, I’m not sure you should rely on his statistical acumen.
The concept of RTI is explained at the start. It’s a metric meant to calculate the relative returning talent, production, and new additions. It’s not intended to be solely a recruiting measure like the 247 team talent composite and it’s only one piece of their predictive formula.
As someone who scoffs at traditional stats I thought you’d appreciate something like this. This is an analytical way to gauge both returning production and team talent. Just like people don’t understand that ESPN FPI isn’t a power ranking because ESPN treats it as one the title without context is misleading.
FootballOutsiders have been one of the best at predicting outcomes, finishing 3rd out of the 63 tracked predictors in 2019 and 11th in 2020. In 2019 they were 54% against the spread, and 76.1% straight up. At 54% ATS that would be a ~3% ROI, not bad for three months. You’d be banned from every sports book in Vegas. They’ve gotten better since Bill Connelly took his trash math and metrics with him to ESPN.
A 2-7 football team last year is in the top 20 in this metric! A 4-3 football team is the second best in the country! Great work football outsiders!
This isn’t a ranking of the best teams in the country. It’s not saying LSU will be better than Bama or Washington has more talent than Ohio State.
Most predictive analytics use some variant of a formula to calculate returning production and/or talent. This one is combined and allows them to write an article, make some graphs, and have people like DJDuck be happy because they don’t understand the concept. Although DJ is several deviations from the mean, three if I remember correctly, I’m not sure you should rely on his statistical acumen.
The concept of RTI is explained at the start. It’s a metric meant to calculate the relative returning talent, production, and new additions. It’s not intended to be solely a recruiting measure like the 247 team talent composite and it’s only one piece of their predictive formula.
As someone who scoffs at traditional stats I thought you’d appreciate something like this. This is an analytical way to gauge both returning production and team talent. Just like people don’t understand that ESPN FPI isn’t a power ranking because ESPN treats it as one the title without context is misleading.
FootballOutsiders have been one of the best at predicting outcomes, finishing 3rd out of the 63 tracked predictors in 2019 and 11th in 2020. In 2019 they were 54% against the spread, and 76.1% straight up. At 54% ATS that would be a ~3% ROI, not bad for three months. You’d be banned from every sports book in Vegas. They’ve gotten better since Bill Connelly took his trash math and metrics with him to ESPN.
Comments
“In the Pacific Northwest, the Oregon Ducks look to repeat as conference champions. (I know, I know, it was a weird season.) They'll bring back five experienced linemen on offense, and plenty of weapons—running back Travis Dye averaged 6-plus yards per carry last season with a 32% first-down rate, and USC transfer receiver Devon Williams will return as the Ducks' top target. Oregon's quarterback situation, though, exposes the beauty of the Returning Talent Index. In just looking at returning production, one would see Oregon losing quarterback Tyler Shough (0.24 EPA/attempt, 47.1% success rate, and 39% first-down rate in the passing game) and see a vacuum. Shough transferred to Texas Tech (58th in the RTI) in part because Oregon is bringing in four-star Ty Thompson, who should have the starting job when camp breaks.“
Most predictive analytics use some variant of a formula to calculate returning production and/or talent. This one is combined and allows them to write an article, make some graphs, and have people like DJDuck be happy because they don’t understand the concept. Although DJ is several deviations from the mean, three if I remember correctly, I’m not sure you should rely on his statistical acumen.
The concept of RTI is explained at the start. It’s a metric meant to calculate the relative returning talent, production, and new additions. It’s not intended to be solely a recruiting measure like the 247 team talent composite and it’s only one piece of their predictive formula.
As someone who scoffs at traditional stats I thought you’d appreciate something like this. This is an analytical way to gauge both returning production and team talent. Just like people don’t understand that ESPN FPI isn’t a power ranking because ESPN treats it as one the title without context is misleading.
FootballOutsiders have been one of the best at predicting outcomes, finishing 3rd out of the 63 tracked predictors in 2019 and 11th in 2020. In 2019 they were 54% against the spread, and 76.1% straight up. At 54% ATS that would be a ~3% ROI, not bad for three months. You’d be banned from every sports book in Vegas. They’ve gotten better since Bill Connelly took his trash math and metrics with him to ESPN.