Timing Bet...when does the Fed step in?

HoustonHusky

Interest rates seem to be cascading higher...can't have that on a lot of fronts (Govt spending, stock market, etc.).

When does the Fed step in to "fix" it, and at what interest rate level?

My guess is in week of March 8, and at a rate of ~1.7%. But I'm wildly guessing...any other taker?

HoustonHusky

I may have been too optimistic...10 years touched over 1.6% before pulling back to 1.5% currently...that jumped quick.

Sad thing is the Fed is already buying a shiteton of these...its just nobody else wants them so they are going to have to start buying even more...

creepycoug

HoustonHusky said:

I may have been too optimistic...10 years touched over 1.6% before pulling back to 1.5% currently...that jumped quick.

Sad thing is the Fed is already buying a shiteton of these...its just nobody else wants them so they are going to have to start buying even more...

I mean, surprise right? Who would buy a 10-year note at under 2%? Other than the issuer's affiliates.

HoustonHusky

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-banker-first-openly-calls-more-qe-response-yield-surge

ECB rumblings...amusing it’s from the Greek guy. And as a translation for the Hondos of the world “more qe” means ramping up the printing presses even more.

creepycoug

HoustonHusky said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-banker-first-openly-calls-more-qe-response-yield-surge

ECB rumblings...amusing it’s from the Greek guy. And as a translation for the Hondos of the world “more qe” means ramping up the printing presses even more.

I know ... "Quantitative Easing" sounds so surgical, smart and harmless.

godawgst

This is the problem that the fed has boxed itself into.

It can't raise rates to kill inflation b/c of the interest on the debt although that's so far past the point of no return it's laughable along with stalling out the economy, yet if it can't keep rates so artificially low b/c all that cheap helicopter money sloshing around the economy brings inflation with it.

I chuckled the last couple of days at market commentators saying people were fleeing the stock market so they could lock in 10 years treasuries that were going to pay you a whopping 1.4-1.5% interest a year.

The SPY is currently paying 1.9% in dividends.