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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

Predictions on next market crash?

RoadTripRoadTrip Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,902 Founders Club
edited May 2022 in Tug Tavern
Something tells me as soon as the last COVID-19 checks go out, the market will take a dive. We're at an almost all time high and I'm thinking about moving the 401k into bonds until it corrects and push it back into a few tech oriented mutual funds when it starts to rebound. Dumb? Don't ever try and time the market and just let it ride if it crashes and wait the 2-6 years it will take to recover?
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  • HFNYHFNY Member Posts: 5,196 Standard Supporter
    RoadTrip said:

    Something tells me as soon as the last COVID-19 checks go out, the market will take a dive. We're at an almost all time high and I'm thinking about moving the 401k into bonds until it corrects and push it back into a few tech oriented mutual funds when it starts to rebound. Dumb? Don't ever try and time the market and just let it ride if it crashes and wait the 2-6 years it will take to recover?

    The problem is that investment grade bonds aren't paying much.

    The Fed has learned hiking rates crushes rallies (see late 90's and 2007) and even a taper tantrum (2013) causes a selloffs now. What is the Fed to do?

    The yield curve is steepening so keep that in mind: https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-03/treasury-curve-steepens-toward-level-last-seen-around-2016-vote

    If you are worried about a sell-off, take a little off your high-growth winners and roll it into low beta equities with a reasonable P/E and yield at 2%+. You could do a lot worse than NEM and GOLD with the stimulus on the horizon.
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  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,065
    edited February 2021
    RoadTrip said:

    Fuck that Pitch. You're not a chump. Big falls lead to even bigger climbs for those who refuse to lose. You're so fucking young and have the next 20-30 years to crush it and you will. Sorry about your dad. I lost mine 3 years ago when he was only 72. 6'2" 230lb Irish badass. He was CA state rugby player of the year his senior season. He and I never got along until he received a 9 month death sentence (pancreatic cancer). He died knowing I had become a success and I made sure he knew it was all because of him. I had something to prove and I did it without his help. He thought my brother and sister were better than me and maybe they were in his eyes but in the end I won and he respected me for it. I understand why he was so hard on me and it's why I do the same with my own kids even though I'm sure there's a much better way. Unfortunately, I only know one way.

    I appreciate that man. All I'm saying is that it was so weird I worried about it. Because no matter what I did it would have turned out poorly. But I lived and learned. And people take you more seriously if you've ever had skin in the game. Its why I don't fuck around and me and my ceo are bros.

    He's a cheap bastard but I understand that. it's very different when it's your pocket.
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  • HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Member Posts: 5,993
    edited February 2021
    My investment theory right now is follow the Fed balance sheet...i think it drives the market. There probably will be some flash crashes but it won’t stay down as long as they are pumping newly printed $$$ into the system.

    As soon as they start drawing down their balance sheet watch out unless the real economy is magically booming again.
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  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 23,611
    edited February 2021
    This is a great fucking thread. Much respect to @RoadTrip and @Pitchfork51 . There are a couple of good fucking movies in those posts my friends.

    Good on both of you for having what it takes get back up and start over. If there is only one good thing about the USA, and there's more, but if there were only one, it would be that you can do what you both did here. You're never really out of it unless you want to be.
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  • RoadTripRoadTrip Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,902 Founders Club
    creepycoug said:

    This is great fucking thread. Much respect to @RoadTrip and @Pitchfork51 . There are a couple of good fucking movies in those posts my friends.

    Good on both of you for having what it takes get back up and start over. If there is only one good thing about the USA, and there's more, but if there were only one, it would be that you can do what you both did here. You're never really out of it unless you want to be.

    Maybe one day Derek can write it for me;-) Knowing the people I had to beat, they'd sue me again for the rights.
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  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 23,611
    RoadTrip said:

    creepycoug said:

    This is great fucking thread. Much respect to @RoadTrip and @Pitchfork51 . There are a couple of good fucking movies in those posts my friends.

    Good on both of you for having what it takes get back up and start over. If there is only one good thing about the USA, and there's more, but if there were only one, it would be that you can do what you both did here. You're never really out of it unless you want to be.

    Maybe one day Derek can write it for me;-) Knowing the people I had to beat, they'd sue me again for the rights.
    Stalin?

    @DerekJohnson
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  • doogiedoogie Member Posts: 15,072
    creepycoug said:

    RoadTrip said:

    Something tells me as soon as the last COVID-19 checks go out, the market will take a dive. We're at an almost all time high and I'm thinking about moving the 401k into bonds until it corrects and push it back into a few tech oriented mutual funds when it starts to rebound. Dumb? Don't ever try and time the market and just let it ride if it crashes and wait the 2-6 years it will take to recover?

    I'm having the same thoughts too, but with a slightly different maybe plan that I know as sure as I'm tying this I won't have the stones to pull off: get out of equities now ... all of them, 500 index, actual stocks, all of it, and sit on cash and wait for this to happen.

    I myself would be wary of going into bonds. If rates tick up at all, they will get crushed. Then again, that has been the conventional warning for years and it hasn't happened.

    But, all that said, I also have FOMO of more market gains.

    Nothing is dumb because nobody knows wtf is going to happen. The other scenario is that COVID is resolved and there is a period of real economic activity and growth as people flee out of their homes to start living again. The confidence will be amazing, especially when/if employment numbers match the euphoria.

    I wish I could tell you anything with confidence, but I got nothin'.
    Careful

    Reserve Primary Fund, How It Broke the Buck Causing a Money Market Run
    Where Were You the Day the U.S. Economy Nearly Collapsed?
    Bernanke and Paulson
    •••
    BY KIMBERLY AMADEO Updated September 10, 2020
    On Tuesday, September 16, 2008, the $62.6 billion Reserve Primary Fund "broke the buck." That meant the fund managers couldn't maintain its share price at the $1 value.1 Money market funds used that value as a benchmark.



    https://www.thebalance.com/reserve-primary-fund-3305671


    I was literally on the phone with a client who ran a $2-3 BB institutional MM fund (not this one) at the exact moment the market broke. Mid sentence, the guy was trying to liquidate prime paper to close out the day. NO bids.

    It’s really a shame I’m such a shitty writer as I wish I could capture his panic as he just sort of started mumbling about the impact this was going to have on his job, his life, his wife, it was surreal.
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  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Member Posts: 44,724 Standard Supporter
    RoadTrip said:

    Pitchfork51 said:

    Since I lost everything and had to do the bankruptcy shit I'm very much looking forward to a housing crash.

    Income is good and will only get better.

    Problem for me is that I don't really want to stay put anywhere

    If you don't mind me asking Pitch, how old are you? Back in '08, through no fault of my own, I had to defend myself in federal court while starting my own company. I was 39 years old and it took 2.5 years and every dime I had to my name (almost $1mm) to beat white collar criminals. I won my counter suit for more than $1mm but I never collected a dime. I was able to pay my lawyer though and I was free. I built a $33mm company and have been maxing my 401K after having to deplete what I had built to that point. I have 3 more years to go and I think I'll be able to retire fairly comfortably but who knows. You can always rebuild. My business partner had to file bankruptcy at that time too and he lost his house. He rebuilt his life along side me. It was his fault for getting us into the mess he created but I believed in him and knew he was getting fucked. It is an unbelievable story similar to the shenanigans that went on in the Movie Wolf of Wallstreet without the drugs and hookers. Mine involved the Russian mafia, the FBI, private detectives, a Hollywood stunt man, a gay registered sex predator, the largest penny stock fraud in American history, knowing how to play poker and a lot of luck. The point is you can always rebuild and, if you believe in yourself when no one else does, you can win against all odds. I hope you keep that cash and hit it big when the opportunity presents itself!
    Does the name AJ DiScala mean anything to you?

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  • jecorneljecornel Member Posts: 9,727
    I have been trying to learn as much as I can about Crypto. Voyager app which is strictly a crypto exchange and wallet had 250,000 downloads in December and a million in January. There is currently a waiting list to download it.

    There is a bull run brewing for many alt coins. I am reading on reddit people moving their entire IRA's to GBTC (NYSE).

    AAVE - a penny a year ago, today trading at $538 a coin. This is just one example, but people are buying coins in the penny range and making a killing with a coin trading at a dollar.

    The returns with coins are through the roof and there is extensive institutional buying of Bitcoin. Big banks have crypto projects in place.

    The stock market feels like a steam engine in comparison.

    Buffet trashed Bitcoin a few years ago, now he is silent as it now sits above 30k on average.

    Gold outflows are in the billions moving to bitcoin.





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  • AtomicPissAtomicPiss Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 64,396 Founders Club
    RoadTrip said:

    Fuck that Pitch. You're not a chump. Big falls lead to even bigger climbs for those who refuse to lose. You're so fucking young and have the next 20-30 years to crush it and you will. Sorry about your dad. I lost mine 3 years ago when he was only 72. 6'2" 230lb Irish badass. He was CA state rugby player of the year his senior season. He and I never got along until he received a 9 month death sentence (pancreatic cancer). He died knowing I had become a success and I made sure he knew it was all because of him. I had something to prove and I did it without his help. He thought my brother and sister were better than me and maybe they were in his eyes but in the end I won and he respected me for it. I understand why he was so hard on me and it's why I do the same with my own kids even though I'm sure there's a much better way. Unfortunately, I only know one way.

    Uhh, Pitch is a bit of a chump. Let's not get overly sentimental here.
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  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 23,611
    doogie said:

    creepycoug said:

    RoadTrip said:

    Something tells me as soon as the last COVID-19 checks go out, the market will take a dive. We're at an almost all time high and I'm thinking about moving the 401k into bonds until it corrects and push it back into a few tech oriented mutual funds when it starts to rebound. Dumb? Don't ever try and time the market and just let it ride if it crashes and wait the 2-6 years it will take to recover?

    I'm having the same thoughts too, but with a slightly different maybe plan that I know as sure as I'm tying this I won't have the stones to pull off: get out of equities now ... all of them, 500 index, actual stocks, all of it, and sit on cash and wait for this to happen.

    I myself would be wary of going into bonds. If rates tick up at all, they will get crushed. Then again, that has been the conventional warning for years and it hasn't happened.

    But, all that said, I also have FOMO of more market gains.

    Nothing is dumb because nobody knows wtf is going to happen. The other scenario is that COVID is resolved and there is a period of real economic activity and growth as people flee out of their homes to start living again. The confidence will be amazing, especially when/if employment numbers match the euphoria.

    I wish I could tell you anything with confidence, but I got nothin'.
    Careful

    Reserve Primary Fund, How It Broke the Buck Causing a Money Market Run
    Where Were You the Day the U.S. Economy Nearly Collapsed?
    Bernanke and Paulson
    •••
    BY KIMBERLY AMADEO Updated September 10, 2020
    On Tuesday, September 16, 2008, the $62.6 billion Reserve Primary Fund "broke the buck." That meant the fund managers couldn't maintain its share price at the $1 value.1 Money market funds used that value as a benchmark.



    https://www.thebalance.com/reserve-primary-fund-3305671


    I was literally on the phone with a client who ran a $2-3 BB institutional MM fund (not this one) at the exact moment the market broke. Mid sentence, the guy was trying to liquidate prime paper to close out the day. NO bids.

    It’s really a shame I’m such a shitty writer as I wish I could capture his panic as he just sort of started mumbling about the impact this was going to have on his job, his life, his wife, it was surreal.
    I was in the Reserve Yield Plus Fund. The fund sold by TD Ameritrade as a money market fund that wasn't a money market fund. I had $85,000 tied up for close to two years. Eventually got most of it back and TD threw in a couple grand to assuage my anger.

    I will be more careful next tim.
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  • creepycougcreepycoug Member Posts: 23,611
    edited February 2021
    jecornel said:

    I have been trying to learn as much as I can about Crypto. Voyager app which is strictly a crypto exchange and wallet had 250,000 downloads in December and a million in January. There is currently a waiting list to download it.

    There is a bull run brewing for many alt coins. I am reading on reddit people moving their entire IRA's to GBTC (NYSE).

    AAVE - a penny a year ago, today trading at $538 a coin. This is just one example, but people are buying coins in the penny range and making a killing with a coin trading at a dollar.

    The returns with coins are through the roof and there is extensive institutional buying of Bitcoin. Big banks have crypto projects in place.

    The stock market feels like a steam engine in comparison.

    Buffet trashed Bitcoin a few years ago, now he is silent as it now sits above 30k on average.

    Gold outflows are in the billions moving to bitcoin.





    I'm no financial advisor, but that doesn't seem prudent.
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