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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

The Bulls Christmas Eve buy: Alibaba = ali buy buy not ali bye bye

Stock is down about $100 since the Chinese Govt has slapped it's wee wee for the Ant IPO and today for shockingly saying Alibab has monopolistic practices which caused the stock to drop by 15%

Founder Jack Ma has been more and more critical of their Govt over there, and so they decided to push back. The good news is Ma left the day to day operations of Alibaba several years agp, b/c of his inability to stay quiet which imo was one of the reasons he left.

Obvious downside is Chinese Gov't decides to make an example of him and the company and pulls whatever levels they have to slowly grind it's advantages away until a competitor takes it place.

Upside is the sum of it's parts is worth more than what it's trading at today, it is the equal of Amazon but with a population it can sell to 5 times greater than the US, and in the press release (along with CNBC anchor who covers China over there) notes how the goverment likes to have companies they can call National Champions which right now Alibaba in that space has in spades (Think a merged Bama/Clemson/Ohio State team the last decade versus the rest of CFB).

Anyway closed at $220. Bought 1/4 of position today. Next buy point is at $200. Think in next 12-15 months it trades back up to $300 so looking at 35% gain.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good buy



Comments

  • DawgsCanDanceDawgsCanDance Posts: 332
    Swaye's Wigwam 250 Answers 250 Awesomes 100 Up Votes
    edited December 2020
    Just a for your information note here regarding chinese securities trading on US exchanges, there is a risk regarding the possible delisting on our exchanges as a result of Chinese companies failure to adopt internationally accepted accounting standards ~ in other words, no clear view into the balance sheet.

    This is an issue before congress and while it is political, the more significant aspect is it is also the formal policy of all US exchanges so it does have the support of congressional leaders and will probably get enacted in some form.

    The risk as i have read it is that the stocks might go through a delisting process and the outstanding shares would be bought back at a yet to be determined price which would be structured as a private buyout. The fear is that the buyout price may very well be a low ball price which does necessarily reflect the true value of the assets.

    Just a heads up ~ I'm not an expert on this, I have not researched it as of yet, and there are a lot of moving parts to the equation.

    Here are a couple of articles on the interrelated subjects for those that have an interest.

    https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/22/read-before-selling-all-us-listed-chinese-stock.aspx
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2020/08/11/what-happens-if-chinese-firms-are-kicked-out-of-the-us-stock-market/?sh=53bb14e6287e
  • Watch The China Hustle on Hulu ($2.99 on Amazon prime). Audited statements for Chinese companies mean jack shit.

  • DawgsCanDanceDawgsCanDance Posts: 332
    Swaye's Wigwam 250 Answers 250 Awesomes 100 Up Votes
    edited December 2020
    Here is another article on the subject which brings up the fact that US investors that want to own Chinese stocks can simply invest in ETF's that can buy assets on foreign exchanges such as the Hong Kong exchange which is where US listed issues would likely wind up if they delist on US exchanges.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/etf-investors-worried-delisting-chinese-150031090.html

    A point of significance that is highlighted is that ETF's are so called institutional investors that have the right to invest directly on foreign exchanges, whereas individual investors do not presently enjoy the same opportunities to do so through US based brokerage firms.

    This does not solve the issue of what happens to US investors regarding the shares they own which are issued and are trading in the US market, and I do not have a feel for for the potential impact of that except to say that it may be depressing the value of US Issued and held shares at the present time.
  • TequillaTequilla Posts: 16,696
    10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes 10000 Comments Seventh Anniversary
    From what I’m reading it looks like the Chinese Government is going to make an example of Ma ... good to probably have exposure to as part of a type of position in a 401K (like an Emerging Market Growth fund) ...

    But I’d be skeptical about putting too much of a position in directly unless I was ok lighting that $$$ on fire
  • godawgstgodawgst Posts: 1,456
    Swaye's Wigwam 1,500 Up Votes 1,000 Awesomes 250 Answers
    Tequilla said:

    From what I’m reading it looks like the Chinese Government is going to make an example of Ma ... good to probably have exposure to as part of a type of position in a 401K (like an Emerging Market Growth fund) ...

    But I’d be skeptical about putting too much of a position in directly unless I was ok lighting that $$$ on fire

    That is a concern and will agree Chinese govt. is at strike two with him (Ant financial and this latest salvo). My belief is someone at Alibaba who Ma still trusts and values will have the come to Jesus meeting about what he is doing and how it's not helping which will back him off.

    Why I also suggested only buying 1/4 postion. If the other shoe drops, or the terminal "accounting regularities" pops up the damage is limited.


  • 89ute89ute Posts: 2,162
    Swaye's Wigwam 5,000 Awesomes 2,500 Up Votes 250 Answers
    China seems nice.

    Jack Ma, the multibillionaire founder of tech companies Alibaba and Ant Group, went missing after criticizing China's financial system by calling for changes and reforms. Since he's made these comments, Ma has not been seen in public for about two months. Ma is one of the wealthiest people in China.4 hours ago
    dncRaceBannon
  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Posts: 25,632
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes 10000 Comments
    Ma goes bye bye. Alibaba gets gobbled up by Bezos/Amazon as part of the new Chinese/Globalist oligarchy as payback for Bezos' WaPo being the CCP's mouthpiece the last year.

    Cook it.


  • PurpleThrobberPurpleThrobber Posts: 25,632
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes 10000 Comments
    CNBC reporting Jack Ma is simply laying low. Not missing.

    He dead.

    Pitchfork51
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