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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

Oil's last ride. Buy Exxon Mobil at $40

The Bull has pulled the trigger on a stock that has fallen by 50% since 2015 and peak price for oil.

The selling is over for funds having to get rid of it to replicate the Dow which is kicking it out.

Big picture is oil continues to tick/drip higher little by little and above $40 per barrel, Exxon along with Chevron, Conoco can make money at that price.
Their dividend is 8% and they will borrow/kill cap ex/maneuver monies/etc to protect that at all costs. Why they can't do that forever, again with oil above $40 they can pay the dividend.
The oil crash in March/April took out the appropriate number of mid-majors. I thought there would be more which only helps them, but bottom line is there is less competition for them.

I would call this more of a trade than a long term hold but at some point over the next 12 months, Exxon will get to 46-48. Add in the dividend and your overall will be somewhere between 20-25%


Comments

  • MikeDamoneMikeDamone Posts: 26,565
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes 10000 Comments
    Sounds like we hit peak oil?
    CFetters_Nacho_Lover
  • godawgstgodawgst Posts: 1,398
    Swaye's Wigwam 1,500 Up Votes 250 Answers Fifth Anniversary

    Sounds like we hit peak oil?

    Without fracking and minus Saudi Arabia I think we would have in the last 5 years.

    The cure for high and low oil prices has always been high and low oil prices. This time could be different with all the diff. forms of alternative energies knicking at oil, the glut of Natural Gas we have (America burns off far more than we use), the Govt. Mandated higher miles per gallon cars must hit, and know b/c of covid the change in the amount of people who will work from home and won't have to travel as much.

    That's why I called it oil's last ride. It used to be the range for oil was $60-100. I can see the new norm being $30-60
    MikeDamone
  • Purple_PillsPurple_Pills Posts: 711
    Swaye's Wigwam Sixth Anniversary 250 Answers 500 Awesomes
    Even if there is a dramatic technological shift in energy away from petroleum there will still be demand for hydrocarbons for other uses.
  • MikeDamoneMikeDamone Posts: 26,565
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes 10000 Comments
    godawgst said:

    Sounds like we hit peak oil?

    Without fracking and minus Saudi Arabia I think we would have in the last 5 years.

    The cure for high and low oil prices has always been high and low oil prices. This time could be different with all the diff. forms of alternative energies knicking at oil, the glut of Natural Gas we have (America burns off far more than we use), the Govt. Mandated higher miles per gallon cars must hit, and know b/c of covid the change in the amount of people who will work from home and won't have to travel as much.

    That's why I called it oil's last ride. It used to be the range for oil was $60-100. I can see the new norm being $30-60
    Take away a their long TD runs, two picks and a missed field goal we would have won POTD.
    CFetters_Nacho_Lover
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